Quick 2010 Projection: Ricky Nolasco

Jimmy Hascup already gave his thoughts on Ricky Nolasco (click here to read the full article), so let’s take a look at my Quick Projection for him for 2010:

205.0 IP, 15 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 195 K (8.56 K/9), 54 BB (2.37 BB/9)

Thoughts:

  • His struggles last season were due to some of the worst luck possible.  He posted a strand rate of 61.0%, the worst mark of any pitcher with at least 170 innings in a season since Derek Lowe’s 58.5% back in 2004 (Randy Johnson was close at 61.8% in 2006).  That tells you just how unlucky he was and a rebound should certainly be in order, meaning a significantly better ERA.
  • The above line is based on a BABIP of .318.  His career mark is at .311, so that’s right in line.
  • I’m expecting a regression in his control, considering his career minor league BB/9 of 2.6.  Obviously, he has improved in that regard, but I don’t see him matching the 1.8 BB/9 he posted over 212.1 innings in 2008.
  • I also do not believe in the 9.5 K/9 he posted last season.  He was at just 8.8 for his minor league career and 7.9 in 2008.  It’s hard to expect him to continue striking out over a batter per inning in 2010, though he could be close.

What are your thoughts on him?  Will he outperform my projections?  What are you expecting from him?

Make sure to check out some more of our 2010 projections, including:

4 comments

  1. MDS says:

    fangraphs has him at a .336 BABIP with a .311 career mark. the 3.28 xFIP and 5.06 ERA also shows bad luck. His increased K Rate could be explained in that he threw his slider 9% more and his curve 12% less. The slider rated at 83.7 compared to the curves 75.4

  2. MDS says:

    also regarding the k/9, he is trending towards getting players to swing and miss at more pitches outside the zone. O-Swing% 22-25-29, O-Contact% down to 64-60-55%.

  3. Pointman says:

    This guy is probably in top 5 hyped players for next year on the internet. Not overhyped just hyped –no chance of getting him cheap next year.

  4. Aaron says:

    Agree with you pointman. He is getting hyped up for good reason. We really have to keep an eye on his ADP in mock drafts to see whether people are buying into that hype or not. I could easily see him getting drafted too early, but i will be watching to see if I can get him at a good price.

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