Top 15 First Basemen For 2010: Take Three
We all know that first base is the deepest position in baseball. There are five potential first round picks and names like Adam Dunn and Derek Lee didn’t crack the Top 15. No other position can boast that type of talent. Let’s take a look at how things currently stack up:
- Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals
- Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees
- Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
- Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies
- Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers
- Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins
- Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox
- Adrian Gonzalez - San Diego Padres
- Mark Reynolds - Arizona Diamondbacks
- Kendry Morales - Los Angeles Angels
- Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds
- Lance Berkman - Houston Astros
- Pablo Sandoval - San Francisco Giants
- Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals
- Victor Martinez - Boston Red Sox
Thoughts:
- The top six players on this list remain unchanged and there doesn’t seem much room to juggle anyone there. Maybe Fielder over Howard? That’s really the only place to consider, but given the big swings in power Fielder has shown I’d like to see him post back-to-back big power years before making the move. Howard is just too consistent at this point.
- Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Gonzalez are surprisingly similar in my projections. I don’t expect Gonzalez to be able to replicate his 40 HR outburst, especially considering his home/road split (12/28), as well as the fact that 20 of his home runs came over the first two months of the year. Youkilis is more consistent, while he should also bring a better average and more runs scored.
- I’ve said it before when it comes to Votto, I think he’s being significantly overvalued (click here for my article on him). He currently has an ADP of 27, the sixth first baseman coming off the board (only after my Top 5). That’s just way too high, meaning I will likely not own him in any format in 2010.
- Who would you rather have, Sandoval or Berkman? It’s really, really close. I do believe in Berkman’s ability to rebound in the average department (he’s been over .310 every other season since 2004). He also should have a little bit more power, offsetting any edge Sandoval has in the average department. In a dynasty league, I’d certainly switch the two, but not in a yearly league. I’ll take a closer look at these two in the near future.
- The truth is that I would likely take Martinez above some of the guys above him (outside of the Top 5, it’s wide open), but that’s because of his eligibility as a catcher. His ranking here is based solely as a first baseman, which certainly changes things.
What are your thoughts on the rankings? Whose too high? Too low? What was the biggest omission?
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If this is based solely on 1B then Youk, Reynolds, and Sandoval shouldn’t even be in this list. No one is drafting them to put at 1B. I’m not. 3B is thin and thats where they will be slotted on anyones team. Victor would not be slotted at 1B on anyones team either.
I was basically in the ryan howard camp (due to his consistency) i still like him, but I could easily flip flop him and prince like you said. The average prince gives is better. PLUS fielder is younger… one year league doesn’t matter, keeper you’d have to go with prince…
I like agon and votto much more than Morneua.
I’d take Kendry and Butler over Berkman. I’m not a fan of hoping for some gas left inthe tank of some of these aging stars. I’ll take the Youth and upside of butler going 30/100 this year rather than hope Berkman doesn’t hurt himself and bounces back.
I dont think if there’s a choice of sandoval or berkman ANYONE is choosing Fat PUMA. Like I said Pablo’s value is in he’s a 3B. He’s around a 4th rounder, and berkman is around what a 6th rounder? Not close IMO.
Ty, I agree that all three of those players will be viewed more as 3B, but they all do have eligibility at 1B, which is why they still qualify for the rankings.
As far as Sandoval vs. Berkman, Sandoval will get extra value because he plays a shallow position. While Berkman struggled for part of last season, I don’t think he has nothing left in the tank. In a “down” year he tied him in HR and was only 6 runs shy, in 112 less AB. Berkman had one bad month (.162 April) and missed a few weeks due to a strained calf.
It’s possible the two get flipped, but I will do an article comparing the two next week to help decide.
Yeah. Its just kind of a weird comparison. No one considers pablo a 1B option. For your ranking purposes its ok. But If you’re matching stat for stat and the player, then you have to look at position. If you tell me Berkman and Pablo will get me the same statline but one plays 3B and one plays 1B, i’m taking the 3B… PABOLO KUNG FU PANDA…. everytime.
Konerko?
Konerko came up short for me, though it’s not that I’m not putting him for a solid season, the position is just that deep and I see him not being able to match the RBI and R totals of the guys on the list.
what criteria leaves Derek Lee off this list? His awesome fielding or great stats(HR, Ave, OBP)?
Votto/Miggy strike me as somewhat similar stat-lines if they both get 550 ab’s. What do you see in Miggy that warrants a #3 ranking that you dont see in Votto at #11?
Granted im sure everyone would take Miggy over Votto and im not trying to say their wrong b/c Miggy should have a slightly better line, but i dont see enough difference in stats to have Votto that much lower then MC. Agree?
Blaze, I don’t really see the two as being that similar. Cabrera could easily hit in the .325 range, while Votto is going to probably be right around .300.
Not too mention, I also think Cabrera is going to outproduce him in HR, RBI and R.
I’ve talked about Votto in the past (http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=4714) and I see him being as a bit overhyped this year. He’s coming off a year with a .373 BABIP. I also am not completely sold on his power.
What about everyone else?
Im not saying they’re gonna have the same statline but Miggy’s 8 spots higher in these rankings. Votto could again have a high average himself. Runs isnt anything a Red ever has, but Miggys runs the last two years have fell off too. MC usually has 30-35 power annually and Votto raked about 25 hr’s each year and he could possibly get all his ab’s this year putting him low 30’s.
Vottos BABIP is always gonna be high b/c of the LD rate being so high. It might not be 373 regularly but it will still be pretty high. Is Votto going too early in drafts?(absolutely)but he’s still gonna have his best year once we finally see what he can do over 550-600 ab’s.
I honestly think MC outproduces Votto, but i see it being by a small margin IMO.
V-mart on this list is a waste of another players name.He is too valuable @ C and will ALWAYS be drafted there.Carlos Peno or D. Lee should be there.