Quick Prospect Report: J.P. Arencibia

2009 Statistics at Triple-A:

466 At Bats
.236 Batting Average (110 Hits)
21 Home Runs
75 RBI
67 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.284 On Base Percentage
.444 Slugging Percentage
.269 Batting Average on Balls in Play

What You Need To Know:

  • 2007 First Round Draft Pick (21st overall)
  • Recently ranked as the Blue Jays #2 prospect by Baseball America
  • His strikeout rate is a problem, at 24.5% at Triple-A last season.  Even if his BABIP was at .299 (120 hits), his average would have been just .258.  Considering he could see another jump in strikeouts in moving to the Major Leagues, you have to be concerned with his potential to hit for a usable average.  As Baseball America recently said, “Scouts question how much Arencibia will hit in the major leagues because his swing is long and his bat speed is ordinary.”
  • His flyball rate for his minor league career was 46.4%, though it rose to 52.5% at Triple-A last season.  That type of flyball rate, especially with his speed, is not conducive to a great BABIP.  The low number may not be purely luck related, so a huge rebound is no guarantee.  Just more fuel to the fire for a potentially poor average.
  • The power is his allure, with 51 career home runs in 1,204 AB over parts of three minor league seasons.  In 2008, between Single & Double-A he hit 27 HR with 105 RBI.
  • It is likely that he gets an opportunity at some point in 2010, with the Blue Jays having John Buck and Raul Chavez on the Major League roster.  Buck is a career .235 hitter and has never hit more than 18 HR in a season, which he’s done just once (his second best year was 12).  The difference between him and Arencibia is minor, at best.
  • A year ago he would have been considered a must own in this situation, but his Triple-A struggles opened some eyes.  Still, if you are in a two-catcher format, he’s certainly worth paying attention to.  Consider him as having the same type of potential as a Mike Napoli, long-term.

What are your thoughts on Arencibia?  Is he a player you consider worth owning or does the average scare you off?

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  1. Tim Lawrence says:

    Interesting that the Jays have Buck as one of their catchers, because I think that may be Arencibia’s best comp in my opinion. I suppose his ceiling could be that of Napoli, but I am a doubter. His healthy flyball ratio is good, but I think he’s going to struggle to hit for average. There are lots of catchers with decent power potential and contact problems. Kelly Shoppach, Miguel Olivo, John Buck, Chris Snyder…Very rarely do they hold on to their position long term. Arencibia’s struggles behind the plate just cement that doubt in my mind.

  2. RY says:

    He has been killing the ball this year, any sort of update on your advice? Will he get a shot in 2010?

  3. Rotoprofessor says:

    Arencibia has actually been added to our prospect tracker, so make sure to check that out!

  4. RY says:

    will do thx ! 🙂

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