Quick 2010 Projection: Roy Oswalt

Roy Oswalt is one of those pitchers who people are very decisive in their thoughts, you either consider him a viable fantasy option as a low-end #2/high-end #3 or you avoid him at all costs.  He’s one of those few, very polarizing players. 

As far as where I stand on him, let’s take a look at my 2010 projections:

195.0 IP, 12 W, 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 143 K (6.60 K/9), 45 BB (2.08 BB/9)

Thoughts:

  • His control has always been his saving grace, with a career BB/9 of 2.06.  Last season he posted a 2.08 mark and since 2005, he’s only been above that once (2.55 in ’07).  That type of control makes it easy for him to post a solid WHIP year in and year out (career WHIP of 1.20).
  • One of the detriments, however, is the strikeouts.  Since 2005 he’s posted a K/9 better than 7.00 once (7.12 in ’08).  The other years have seen him post marks of 6.85, 6.77, 6.54 & 6.85.  I know, my projection is slightly below what he’s done, but the back injury he suffered last season plays a role in that.  If you own him you need to make sure that you have a high-end strikeout artist to offset him.
  • Another issue is the team he plays for.  How many opportunities for wins are they going to give him?  In 30 starts in ’09 he won just eight games.  Obviously, you wouldn’t expect him to win that few again, but seeing 16+ is hard to imagine as well.  As I always say, wins are a fickle category so don’t value it too highly, but if you have a choice between two similar pitchers wins potential has to be taken into account.
  • The BABIP I used was .306, similar to last season’s .307.  Since 2004 he’s had one season below .300 (.294 in ’08), otherwise he’s been between .305 and .318.

What are your thoughts on Oswalt?  Is he a pitcher you like or dislike?  Why?

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Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including:

2 comments

  1. Chad says:

    At the spot you’ll probably have to draft him there will be cheaper options with more upside available later. If he gets cheap enough and fell in drafts he’d definitely be worth taking.

  2. Aaron says:

    I think your projections for him are spot on. Chad thinks you might have to draft him at a higher position than his worth, but after last year’s inconsistent season and depth at SP I think he could drop a lot in ADP. I will be keeping my eye on where he ends up in mock drafts and picking him based on projections similar to yours.

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