Top 35 Outfielders for 2010: Take Three
As we continue to update our rankings (based on the projections in the 2010 Rotoprofessor Draft Guide), let’s turn our attention to the outfield. It’s surprisingly not quite as deep of a position as you’d think, especially for those in five outfielder formats. Let’s take a look at how things currently stand and who you should be targeting on draft day:
- Ryan Braun - Milwaukee Brewers
- Matt Kemp - Los Angeles Dodgers
- Matt Holliday - St. Louis Cardinals
- Carl Crawford - Tampa Bay Rays
- Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox
- Grady Sizemore - Cleveland Indians
- Justin Upton - Arizona Diamondbacks
- Jason Bay - New York Mets
- Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles
- Adam Lind - Toronto Blue Jats
- Andre Ethier - Los Angeles Dodgers
- Bobby Abreu - Los Angeles Angels
- Carlos Lee - Houston Astros
- Ben Zobrist - Tampa Bay Rays
- Curtis Granderson - New York Yankees
- Shin-Soo Choo - Cleveland Indians
- Carlos Quentin - Chicago White Sox
- Ichiro Suzuki - Seattle Mariners
- Adam Dunn - Washington Nationals
- Jayson Werth - Philadelphia Phillies
- Hunter Pence - Houston Astros
- Nelson Cruz - Texas Rangers
- Raul Ibanez - Philadelphia Phillies
- Manny Ramirez - Los Angeles Dodgers
- Denard Span - Minnesota Twins
- Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers
- Shane Victorino - Philadelphia
- Johnny Damon - Free Agent
- Adam Jones - Baltimore Orioles
- Jay Bruce - Cincinnati Reds
- Nate McLouth - Atlanta Braves
- Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburgh Pirates
- Alex Rios - Chicago White Sox
- Franklin Gutierrez - Seattle Mariners
- Ryan Ludwick - St. Louis Cardinals
Thoughts:
- Is there any way you would consider taking Matt Kemp over Ryan Braun? I don’t see it, though apparently some do. To see my reasoning, you can click here.
- As the number four outfielder on my draft board, I don’t view Carl Crawford as a first round pick. You can see why by clicking here.
- Don’t reach too high for Grady Sizemore. While I have him slotted in the sixth spot, there is also a lot of risk hanging over him. Besides coming off an injury shortened ‘09, he doesn’t offer much average upside and expecting 30+ home runs again would be a mistake. He’s a top option and a #1 outfielder, but proceed carefully.
- Justin Upton has as much upside as anyone in the game, but at 22-years old there is no guarantee that he is able to put it all together in ‘10. Still, even if he simply matches his ‘09 production (.300, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 84 R, 20 SB), who’s going to complain? He’s a great option in all formats, but keep your expectations tempered.
- We know what Markakis is at this point, but is that such a bad thing? Why do people devalue him because we know he’s going to hit around .300 with 20+ HR and go 90/90? It just doesn’t make sense to me.
- Even moving into the new Yankees Stadium, I think Curtis Granderson’s 30 HR may be his ceiling, considering he hit 49.3% of his hits in the air in ‘09. A decrease there will help to offset the advantage he gets from his new surroundings.
- Everyone loves Ichiro, but he’s no longer the top outfielder that he once was. For my reasoning why, click here.
- For as good as Jayson Werth is, make sure you don’t overvalue him. He’s going in the third round in fantasy drafts, despite not producing a certainty in the average department. He’s got good power and solid speed, but when you strikeout over 27% of the time, your going to need a lot of luck to put up a solid average, decreasing his value. For more details on him, click here.
- If Manny Ramirez stays healthy and on the field, he has the potential to produce significantly better than his number 24 ranking. Since 2006 he’s had over 500 at bats in just one season (552 in ‘08), so it makes it tough to expect.
- Johnny Damon’s value will be fully determined once he signs a contract. I wouldn’t expect him to move up much in the rankings, but he certainly has the potential to fall a few spots.
- It may seem off to have Franklin Gutierrez ranked this high, but he should be considered a very good sleeper for ‘10. He has the potential to be a 20/20 option and he will likely hit in the middle of the Mariners lineup. Don’t draft him as the 34th outfielder off the board, but that’s the type of production you very likely could get.
What are your thoughts on the rankings? Who’s too high? Too low? Who was the biggest omission?
Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.
Make sure to check out our other early rankings:
- Catchers
- First Basemen
- Second Basemen
- Third Basemen
- Shortstops
- Designated Hitters
- Starting Pitchers
- Closers
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is there any way you can do a profile on Nelson Cruz? he is a mystery to me as far as what he truly is and how good he will do.
I’d put Justin Upton to #4 and Grady to #5. Sliding down Carl Crawford and Ellsbury. I think Both those guys are 3rd round type players going late first to mid second or early third at the latest. I think alot of it is due to ESPN’s player rater which favors sbs. I’d much rather have Uptons upside of going 30/30 with a floor of 25/25 this year than Crawford and Ellsburys 10/50sb’s… Which one is a safer bet? Probably CC and Ells like you have listed, but which one could outproduce their draft position and has First round potential? J-UP. I’d rather have grady due to the fact he can go 25/30 pretty easy and 30/30 isn’t outta reach. I am not a fan of his average, but a year ago he was a first rounder. I just think the upside of these two outweighs the two you’re saying you defly wouldn’t take where they go.
The lack of power from the two speedsters irks me. I guess if somehow Carl could hit 20 HR’s i’d see his value, but he’s really a 15HR max guy. One year he hit 18, all other years he hits 11-15.
Id rather have Upton and Sizemore over Ellsbury too. Also probably put Carlos Gonzalez over Ludwick, Rios, Mclouth too.
Not a bad list. One pet peeve of mine in almost every single ranking has Nick Markakis way to high…
I agree that his stat line certainly has value, but why take him when you can own Choo much later? Or Abreu?
Choo has been ranked considerably lower than Nick almost everywhere. I just dont see it. I know Nick has a longer track record, but that just serves to solidify the opinion that we know exactly what he is. I feel that everyone ranking him that high is banking on the upside we have not seen yet instead of ranking him where his stats really belong.
I Am glad to see Abreu ranked so close to Nick, but many others do not have them nearly as close. That guy is money year after year. Death, Taxes and .300 100/100 and a combo of 40+ sbs and HR. Some years 15 HR and 25 sbs, some years 20/20…
How do you reason that Dunn goes two slots lower than Carlos Quentin? Quentin is a far higher injury risk, hasn’t ever played more than 130 games in a season, and has an enormously similar ceiling as compared to Dunn, who is a 40 HR rock. I personally couldn’t see drafting Quentin first, under almost any circumstances.
Whats the deal with Josh Hamilton. What are your expectations? He seems remarkably low.
Granderson only #15 in that ballpark on the yanks???? The only question I have is where he bats in the lineup? I hear Nick Johnson bats 2nd. Also Pence is a little high or is he? Hes hard to figure out.
I could see slotting Sizemore and Upton over Ellsbury because I think they both have more to offer in terms of all around production, but you can’t disregard the chance of stealing 60-plus bases. Also kind of petty, but I can see Adam Jones outproducing Damon and also see Hamilton as more valuable than Denard Span, even with the injury concerns. As an aside, I can’t argue with Ibanez’ spot, but I see his producting dropping significantly this season - almost to the extent that he’d fit the bottom 3rd of the rankings better.
I can understand the idea of moving Sizemore & Upton over Ellsbury, but we also shouldn’t downgrade the SB just because you can get them later on in the draft. Ellsbury is a rare player who has the potential to carry you in SB while not killing you anywhere, so he does deserve to be values.
As much as we discussed Crawford going too high (in the first round), I do think he’s a definite second round pick. The SB are valuable, just not enough to take in the first round.
Michael - yes, I’ll def. take a look at Nelson Cruz, probably next week
Carlito - that’s the rumor with Granderson. With him hitting 7th in the Yankees lineup, he is not a #1 OFer in my mind.
I’d move J.Up..UP a few slots. Will we be surprised if he outproduces Matt Kemp this year? I won’t. I’d definitely take him over Crawford and probably Sizemore too.
BJP, I’ll throw out the old adage of You don’t win your league in the first round, but you certainly can lose it.
I agree that Upton could outproduce Kemp, but I hope your not suggesting drafting him before Kemp?
I agree with everyone that Upton COULD be a monster this season, but I would say it’s far from a guarantee so we should keep some expectations in check. Over Sizemore I could see, but I wouldn’t push him up any higher than that.
No, I’d take Kemp over Upton. I’m just saying that I won’t be surprised if Upton matches or outproduces Kemp this year. He wasn’t far off from Kemp last year - he matched him in homers and beat him in average by a few points. Give him the same number of ABs and runs and RBI would be much closer.
Ahhh, the good ol’ Blue Jats. When did they change their team name
Only a Canadian would pick that up…
Ethier = Regression
Matt Holliday was good in STL, but his .391 BABIP isnt happening again
Insert Carlos Gonzalez at #30 on this list.
Remove Damon entirely (.280/12/18 is what I see coming)
Jason Kubel is going to go .320/25/100/90 and that has to be worth a spot on here.
Why couldn’t Kubel accumulate 130 RBI hitting in that spot with Mauer and Morneau on base all of the time.
130 RBI is not something that many players can reach, no matter what the lineup surrounding him. Last season there were three players to reach that level, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard & Prince Fielder. Kubel is just not in that class and his struggles against left-handed pitchers is a big-time concern.
As for Gonzalez, I like him as much as anyone, but playing time is a big concern. You have five players vying for three spots, which means everyone could see reduced time.
kubel will regress unless you think his all time highs in BABIP n HR/FB are real. 130 RBI is out of the question.
Kubel getting 130 rbi’s is laughable.
Carlos Gonzalez is going 20/20 this year easy. He’ll get his PT. If not the rockies manager should be questioned.
where is BJ Upton? The fact that you would rank him behind Gutierrez or McLouth is laughable at best. Also Soriano needs to be on this list.
ya i agree rocket,i barely noticed that….
bj and alfonso should be ahead of fragu, mcclouth, and Ludwick at least…. we all know soriano is a health concern, but he’s gotta be better than ludwick?
plus if he could stay healthy?
The way it worked out, Upton fell just short. I have McLouth, Ludwick & Upton all at $8 value in the draft guide, so it really is interchangable.
As for Soriano, I’ve lost faith in him at this point. He was bad last season and has lost a lot of his speed, which added to his value (he hasn’t topped 20 since ‘06). He’s struggled with injuries, like you said, which also downgrades him.
I’ll take a closer look at Soriano next week, but his name is bigger than his potential at this point.
Since when is a projected 324. average, 95 runs and 32 stolen bases not elite?!?
Seriously, as old as Ichiro is, he’s still elite. And not only that, you mention his lineup wont produce offense? Some experts have Seattle in the World Series this year, now i know that is far fetched, however, just them thinking that proves the improvement in this lineup! You’re also mentioning the sleeper that is Franklin Gutierrez and the upcomer that Jose Lopez is….Come On!
Agree withWill further up in the comments–I know Josh Hamilton struggled with injuries in 2009 and could still be a risk, but his ranking seems low.
The days of putting Ichiro Suzuki in the top 20 outfielders are coming to a close, and I’m not sure he belongs there this year. I’d definitely take Jayson Werth over him, and possibly several other names ranked below him.
Did you see what happened to Raul Ibanez in the 2nd half of 2009? If so, your ranking doesn’t indicate as much. I’m already shopping him around in my keeper league before the draft, trying to see if I can get an extra draft pick in exchange for him.
Adam Jones is still young and admittedly hasn’t reached his full potential yet, so I do think some sites are overranking/overrating him. But below both Denard Span and Johnny Damon? Ouch. :p
That’s all for now.
Just wondering what are you opinions on two OF’ers. Last year’s NL ROY Chris Coughlan and out of favor AZ OF’er Chris Young.
whered carlos beltran go? i kno hes not that great anymore but you had him as #5 OF on one of your other rankings
cole, the injury sent him tumbling. At this point, with the possibility of him being out for the first 2 months, it’s tough to value him as a Top 35 option.