Gallardo, Johnson Or Beckett: What’s A Keeper League Owner To Do?
By Benjamin J. Pavlovic
I’m in a predicament. I’m mocking out my 2010 draft while pragmatically assessing who I should roster with my third round pick. Note that this is a 5X5 keeper league format with fourteen teams. We are halfway through a 10-year franchise and players can be drafted and signed for up to three years.
My pitching staff is above average. I return Tommy Hanson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Max Scherzer and Ervin Santana, with Mariano Rivera and Andrew Bailey in the bully. Lots of upside in that group, lots of strikeouts, but no true fantasy ace. That brings me to my current quandary. In the third round, I’ll be looking to draft a frontline starter. The top four free agent arms on the 2010 board (Lincecum, Sabathia, Wainwright, Lee) should already be gone by the time I pick in the third. That leaves me with Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson and Josh Beckett.
This trio is certainly above average and all three were top 20 pitchers in 2009, but is there a true ace here? Trust me, I’d much rather be deciding between Halladay and Sabathia, but this is all we have to work with. Let’s break them down and make a choice.
Yovani Gallardo is coming off of a wonderful season. In 2009, he posted a K/9 ratio of 9.9. He broke out. He turns 24 in February and looks like he is one of the best young hurlers in the National League. What’s not to like? His only injury of record is from a freak collision resulting in a torn ACL in his right knee. He’s on a contending team that will back him with great run support and he’s coming into his third season - a year when many young pitchers put it all together.
Josh Johnson just inked a hefty contract (4-years, $39 million guaranteed) and will remain in Florida as he continues to blossom into one of the NL’s best young pitchers. Johnson is two years older than Gallardo and already has a Tommy John tattoo on his wing. He proved healthy and dominant over the course of 2009, winning 15 games with a WHIP of 1.15 and a K/9 of 8.2. In a word, impressive.
Boston’s ace, Josh Beckett , turns thirty in May, plays for a perennial World Series contender and is in his prime pitching into a contract year. Even with Theo Epstein locking up John Lackey for the next five years, the Sox will want to do the same for Beckett. He’s one of the best big game starters around and the Red Sox will have plenty of big games in the near future. Beckett’s 2009 was superb - K/9 ratio of 8.4 (199Ks in 212.3 innings), 17 wins, 3.86ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
All three are solid bets to make in a keeper league, but my staff already inherits quite a bit of risk. Hanson is young, Ubaldo still has control issues, Max has yet to throw 200 innings and Ervin has injury history and just one truly good season under his belt. Taking all of those factors into the equation, Josh Beckett is my guy. He is the safest bet for 200 Ks, 15+ wins and a low WHIP, and has the proven ability to exceed all of those statistics. If Beckett is gone and I am left with either Gallardo or Johnson, I’ll flip a coin…then probably select a hitter instead. Let’s hear your thoughts.
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Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including:
- Andrus, Elvis
- Baker, Scott
- Beckham, Gordon
- Blanks, Kyle
- Burnett, A.J.
- Butler, Billy
- Cabrera, Everth
- Cain, Matt
- Correia, Kevin
- Davis, Chris
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- Furcal, Rafael
- Hamels, Cole
- Harang, Aaron
- Kershaw, Clayton
- Kouzmanoff, Kevin
- Lee, Derrek
- Lopez, Jose
- Nolasco, Ricky
- Oswalt, Roy
- Pena, Carlos
- Peralta, Jhonny
- Rasmus, Colby
- Reimold, Nolan
- Roberts, Brian
- Shields, James
- Suzuki, Ichiro
- Upton, B.J.
- Vazquez, Javier
- Votto, Joey
- Wallace, Brett
- Werth, Jayson
- Wieters, Matt
- Youkilis, Kevin
i’d go Josh Johnson…
For me it’s Gallardo. I have him slated as a #1 starter in ‘10, with Beckett & Johnson more of a #2 option.
I alos live Gallardo more as a long-term answer.
I like gallardo dont get me wrong, but a BB/9 of 4.6? Not good, i know he’s young and hopefully that lowers, but thats not good for now. The K rate is 9.9 which is huge, but I think i’d rather have JJ’s 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 that have consistently went down for 3 years straight. Plus he’s 26 and gallardo is 24, I’d say it might take another year or two for gallardo to figure it out and become an elite #1.
Beckett just has too many ailments always, big time gamer, but always gonna give up the snowman at some point and tick you off.
Rememeber, that 4.6 came after missing an entire season. In his 110 inning in ‘07 his walk rate was 3.0. For his minor league career is 3.2.
That should not simply be ignored and it’s not fair to assume that the 4.6 is the type of pitcher he is.
Josh Beckett - Beckett had an off year last season but he is in a contract year and the improved defense behind him will prove worth a few W’s - Gallardo is a close second but I would go with the pitcher on the team that will post the most Wins and who has the better bullpen to hold those victories and in that case Boston is heads and shoulders above the other options
I always choose a National Leaguer over an American Leaguer when all things seem equal (better ERA with the National pitchers). I would choose Gallardo…why would you want a pitcher who could possible face the Yanks 4 times a year…yikes!!
Gallardo had an insane innings jump which could cause him to have the year Hamels did last year when he had his jump.
Interesting comparison, Michael. As for NL/AL that’s not all that black and white. It makes sense “when all things seem equal” but Roy Halladay, Johan, CC wouldn’t agree. In this case, I think Beckett simply has a much stronger track record and is right in his prime, pitching into a contract year. And I’m a Yankees fan that hates the Sox! Gallardo is young and has control issues…Johnson has injury history and a poor team. What if Cliff Lee were in this mix of pitchers? I think I’d go Beckett, Lee, Johnson, Gallardo. Remember, you get one arm for three years. Gallardo and Johnson just have too much risk. Look at Billingsley going into the 2009 season…he was a can’t miss guy…without TJ surgery. And look at what he put together in 2009. Not very impressive. When it comes to pitchers, I’m skeptical when I see such a limited track record.
Beckett is consistently overrated. He’s great in the postseason but he’s not a great fantasy pitcher. He has Lackey like numbers. Gallardo is too inconsistent. Josh Johnson is the man by process of elimination.
RP- in 2007 he threw 110 innings, so about half a season… I know he was injured and all, but the BB/9 is worrisome, if it comes down this year which is what you HAVE to bank on then sure he’s a fireballing elite SP, if not you’re in trouble with him.
I can’t think his half season is “how he’s going to be” for a full season. Many pitchers are sparkling in a short span, but over the long haul balance out…
JJ