Speed To Burn: Five Late Round Options For Steals
We’ve been talking about it a lot in the past week, especially in deciding whether to draft someone like Carl Crawford early on or waiting on speed until the later rounds (after Round 18). This year it seems like you can easily find some stolen base options late in your draft, doesn’t it? Let’s take a look at five players that are worth looking at who I am projecting to have at least 30 stolen bases for in 2010:
Juan Pierre - Chicago White Sox
He is finally freed from being a part-time player with the Dodgers. He now slides into the leadoff spot for the White Sox, where he has the potential to thrive. He has a ton of speed, which he has shown off at every opportunity. Over the past two seasons he’s has 755 AB, stealing a total of 70 bases. From 2001-2007, when he was playing everyday, his worst year saw him steal 45 bases. He’s stolen 57 or more bases (best year was 65) four different times.
Let’s not be mistaken, however, because Pierre has plenty of shortcomings. If you want to get a little bit of power from your speed option, he’s not your man. His career high is three home runs.
He should score plenty of runs, however, and could easily set a career high in RBI (currently his high is 55, but he has spent his entire career in the NL where the opportunities are fewer for leadoff hitters).
Still, if you are in need of pure speed in the late rounds of your draft, is there a better, more sure option?
Everth Cabrera - San Diego Padres
We’ve spoken about him in great deal in the past (click here to view), so I’m not going to go into great detail on him again. What you need to know is that he is guaranteed a spot hitting atop the Padres lineup and he has as much speed as anyone in the game.
He stole 73 bases at Single-A in ‘08 before being selected in the Rule 5 draft and being forced to spend the ‘09 season in the Major Leagues. Injuries limited him, but he still managed to steal 25 bases in just 377 AB.
He’s not going to hit for power or drive in many runs, but with elite speed, a decent average (projected for .270) and the ability to score runs, he’s certainly worth the flyer.
Alcides Escobar - Milwaukee Brewers
He has tremendous speed (42 SB in 52 attempts at Triple-A in ‘09), but there are more questions surrounding him then Cabrera.
First of all, where will he hit in the lineup? Will the Brewers continue to utilize Rickie Weeks at the top, when he’s actually healthy? That would relegate Escobar to likely hitting eighth, limiting his opportunities.
Will the Brewers even let him run? Since 2005 the team leader has just 25 SB in a season (Rickie Weeks in 2007). It’s not their game, so it’ll be interesting to see if they opt to turn him loose or not.
As we’ve already discussed (click here to view) he does have elite speed, so he is certainly worth the flyer, but there are safer options available for stolen bases.
Dexter Fowler - Colorado Rockies
The question isn’t about Fowler’s ability, but his playing time, as the Rockies have five outfielders vying for just three spots. Still, having stolen 27 bases in just 433 at bats in ‘09, it’s hard to imagine him not getting enough at bats to make an impact.
Like the other players on this list, he has little power (best season was nine home runs at Double-A in ‘08), but that’s not what you are looking for. It’s the stolen bases, which you also should be sure to temper your expectations on. While he stole 43 in ‘06 at Single-A, he had just 20 each of the next two seasons (245 AB at Single-A and 421 AB at Double-A).
His upside may not be quite as high as someone like Pierre or Cabrera, but he certainly has the ability to chip in late in your draft at an extremely low cost.
Drew Stubbs - Cincinnati Reds
Don’t be misled by his power outburst upon being recalled (eight home runs in 180 AB), because it’s just not the type of player he is. Prior to joining the Reds, he had hit just three home runs in 411 AB at Triple-A.
What’s important is his speed. He had 46 stolen bases at Triple-A, before adding another 10 with the Reds.
He should get the opportunity to hit atop the Reds lineup and with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips waiting to drive him in, should score a fair share of runs. He strikes out too much to post an elite average, but that’s easy to overlook. You are taking him for the stolen bases, which he should have plenty of opportunity to accumulate.
What are your thoughts on these players? Which would you target? Is there anyone else you are focusing on late?
Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.
Previous Late Round Option Articles:
- 5 Late Round Strikeout Options
- 2 Late Round Catching Options
- 2 Late Round First Base Options
- 2 Late Round Second Base Options
- 3 Late Round Closer Options
I like Pierre out of this bunch due to his track record (when he has PT) he’s not going to give you much more than SB’s, but thats what you’re looking for out of any of these guys right? and he’s going to bat .300, you can’t say that about any of the rest of these guys….
Everth would probably be my next target, him and Elvis who isn’t in this list but you have discussed in prior posts. They almost leap frog Pierre because of their SS eligibility, but in just knowing what you get I’d go with Pierre first.
TY, the only reason Andrus isn’t on this list is because his ADP has him going in Round 14. Otherwise, he’d be just as deserving as anyone else to get on this list.
Why was Nyjer Morgan not on that SB list?
good call rich, he’s another one to target… i think RP is talking LATE picks… Nyjer will go a little earlier, at least he has in mocks.
Nyjer Morgan is going in round 11 in mocks and the other guy i was thinking that could be a beast in sb this season is Julio Borbon, who is going at pick 191 (end of 16th round) in mock drafts.
TY, u took the words out of my mouth. The list is guys going in the 18th round or later (on average). I love both Borgon & Morgan, but they aren’t exactly steals considering where they are going.
As MRT points out, I’d rather have Borbon over Morgan considering their draft positions. How about you?
I’d be amazed if Pierre goes as late as the 18th round. I’ve no idea what his ADP is now (I’m guessing 200+ given his inclusion here), but come the real draft time when the serious guys have done their analysis I can’t see any way he goes beyond 150/160. It’s not that I trust him, but some speed starved manager is going to reach for the prospect of 40/50 SB potential (in roto leagues at least).
That’s the problem, none of these speed guys is going under the radar, be it Borbon, Morgan, Andrus or whoever. These guys are being mentioned again and again, and the hype machine grows. The only guys that you’ll be able to grab really cheap are the ones where playing time could be a real issue or where the rest of their stats kill their SB benefit.
Ya E-Z the day of a “sleeper” are gone…. there’s no such thing, if anyone knows how to use google they’re reading all the hype, its on every baseball site….
You wanna look deeeeper, what about Brett Gardner, Scott Podsednik, or a bounce-back Coco Crisp?
nate- i think if you have to roster those guys you better be in a deep deep deep league, 15 teams or more? I play with 3 UTL spots and a DEEP bench, pitching and hitting and I wouldn’t roster them, they all have some good speed and could be productive, but I think I’d rather gamble on taking jason heyward and wait two months on him than draft those guys…. (i know this article is on speed, but i’d rather have a youths upside over some of these guys).
I would agree with TY on that one. All three of them are best left for waiver wire fodder. Gardner is only going to give you SB (no power and not a great average). Crisp is now in a deep OF in Oakland and, like Gardner, doesn’t really offer anything outside of some speed. And Podsednik? Well, he’s Scott Podsednik…
All three are #84 or worse on my expanded rankings. I’d prefer taking someone like Lastings Milledge, who could contribute 20-25 SB and give you upside in other categories as well.
I like Pierre and Cabrera because he’s a SS.
Rotoprofessor
Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes are two players I’ve been waiting on for last two years… It looks like they will be starting with everyday jobs this year and I think both are worth late round attention.
Def. agree on Milledge. I am in a 16 team league with very deep benches though, so guys like Crisp are, alas, borderline considerations.