Top 45 Starting Pitchers For 2010: Take Three
Ranking starting pitchers is definitely one of the more debatable positions in baseball. How do you rank up-and-coming pitchers like Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez and Tommy Hanson? How about injury concern pitchers like Johan Santana and Chris Carpenter? Let’s take a look at how things currently look for me:
- Tim Lincecum - San Francisco Giants
- Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals
- Roy Halladay - Philadelphia Phillies
- Felix Hernandez - Seattle Mariners
- CC Sabathia - New York Yankees
- Johan Santana - New York Mets
- Chris Carpenter - St. Louis Cardinals
- Dan Haren - Arizona Diamondbacks
- Jon Lester - Boston Red Sox
- Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
- Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers
- Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies
- Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies
- Adam Wainwright - St. Louis Cardinals
- James Shields - Tampa Bay Rays
- Josh Johnson - Florida Marlins
- Cliff Lee - Seattle Mariners
- Josh Beckett - Boston Red Sox
- Ricky Nolasco - Florida Marlins
- Jake Peavy - Chicago White Sox
- Tommy Hanson - Atlanta Braves
- Chad Billingsley - Los Angeles Dodgers
- Scott Baker - Minnesota Twins
- Matt Garza - Tampa Bay Rays
- Javier Vazquez - New York Yankees
- John Lackey - Boston Red Sox
- Wandy Rodriguez - Houston Astros
- Matt Cain - San Francisco Giants
- Brett Anderson - Oakland Athletics
- Jered Weaver - Los Angeles Angels
- A.J. Burnett - New York Yankees
- Jorge De La Rosa - Colorado Rockies
- Brandon Webb - Arizona Diamondbacks
- Clay Buchholz - Boston Red Sox
- John Danks - Chicago White Sox
- Aaron Harang - Cincinnati Reds
- Rich Harden - Texas Rangers
- Jair Jurrjens - Atlanta Braves
- Roy Oswalt - Houston Astros
- Carlos Zambrano - Chicago Cubs
- David Price - Tampa Bay Rays
- Ted Lilly - Chicago Cubs
- Gavin Floyd - Chicago White Sox
- Rich Porcello - Detroit Tigers
- There is some risk involved in the Top 10 pitchers, especially with Johan Santana and Chris Carpenter. Will Santana be healthy? If he is, and indications right now are that he is, he has the stuff, in that ballpark, to be the best pitcher in the game. As for Carpenter, after all the injuries he’s had, are you willing to bet on him staying healthy for a second full season? Even if he does, is there any way he repeats his 2009 campaign? It certainly would seem unlikely.
- Don’t believe that Yovani Gallardo will be a #1 fantasy pitcher in 2010? Worried about his control? Let’s not forget about his minor league career walk rate of 3.2 and his 110 Major League innings at 3.0 in ‘07. His control is far better than he showed in ‘09 (4.6) and if he gets that back in order, he will be a top option in all formats.
- Ubaldo Jimenez has converted me to a believer. What else is there to say? I was always a big critic of his, but he appears to have improved his control to go along with strikeouts and a great groundball rate. At this point, there really is nothing left not to like.
- I’ve already spoken about Kershaw (click here to view) and how he could become a fantasy ace in ‘10. If he can simply throw strikes and go deep into games, it’s a realistic possibility.
- How is Cliff Lee affected by his move back to the AL? Considering that he’s already proven that he can be successful in the American League, there isn’t much reason to downgrade him very far. He’s a solid #2 in all formats.
- Is there any chance Ricky Nolasco has as much poor luck (.336 BABIP, 61.0% strand rate) in ‘10? He’s a great buy low candidate if your league mates forget about him. For more on him, click here.
- How will Jake Peavy do away from San Diego? His great few innings in Chicago are nice, but he needs to do a whole lot more to fully put fantasy owners at ease. Don’t forget about his ‘08 split, posting a 1.74 ERA at Petco Park and a 4.28 ERA everywhere else.
- Scott Baker the WHIP Maker. And don’t forget it (click here for more).
- Javier Vazquez was great last season but he is moving to a park that helps to boost the power of left-handed hitters. In ‘09, he allowed 14 HR to lefties. That sounds like a perfect marriage, doesn’t it? He’s going to be good, but he’s not likely to be anywhere near last year’s production (click here for more).
- There’s little doubt that Matt Cain regresses from last season, is there (click here for my article)? He had tremendous luck, benefiting from an 81.0% strand rate and a .268 BABIP. He’s not likely to repeat that type of luck.
- Pitchers who could break out in ‘10: Brett Anderson, Jorge De La Rosa & Clay Buchholz. Any one of those three could emerge as Top 20 pitchers before the year is out.
- What can we expect from Brandon Webb after missing virtually all of ‘09? It’s tough to invest too heavily on him, isn’t it?
What are your thoughts on the rankings? Who’s too high? Too low? Who was the biggest omission?
Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.
Make sure to check out our other early rankings:
- Catchers
- First Basemen
- Second Basemen
- Third Basemen
- Shortstops
- Designated Hitters
- Outfielders
- Closers
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You have James Shields way too high. His K-rate is dropping and he gives up tons of hits. Also Gallardo is a big injury risk with that innings jump. He scares me.
Is James Shields at 16 a misprint? I’d probably rather have the next 10-14 pitchers going after him.
He plays in the Al east.
His k/9 usually is high 6’s.
He’s actually pretty easy to hit (BAA career .266)
He’s AWFUL away from home (career 4.76 era on road)
Career road whip (1.32)
I do like his control which keeps his whips relatively low (besides last year) but putting him above Josh Johnson/Beckett etc is crazy lol.
I’d personally have Roy Halladay in the 2 spot.
I think Danny Haren is under-rated. I know about the 2nd half collapses but the guy has 8.5 k/9 last two years and the best BB rate in the MLB. A whip specialist indeed (223 ks / 38 BB’s in 09). Even with the not so good 2nd halves this guy still has outstanding numbers. One year he’ll buck the trend i think.
Everything about Justin Verlander’s season was fantastic. K-rate went up over 10 k/9. BB/9 dropped from 3.9 to 2.36. He was actually better then his era showed with his xFIP sitting 3.26 and his BABIP was kind of high at 328. His velocity on his pitches were career highs. He shaved 5% off his contact rate and 8% off his O contact rate (which is why we’re seeing the spike in K’s).
Other then him throwing a ton of pitches, he figured it all out last year and could be better then last year and we could be slotting him in Grienke’s spot next year. I don’t worry much about the heavy innings as he has some of the cleanest mechanics in baseball.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’m probably higher on Shields than most, but between him, Johnson, Beckett and Lee, I have them all in the same dollar or two range so it is a preference thing. I’m going to be talking about Johnson in detail either later this week or next week to help further explain my ranking of him.
RP- have you owned shields? if you’re considering him close to JJ, beckett, and cliff lee you’ve drank too much yesterday during the superbowl….
Beckett is declining, but I’d take Lee, JJ and Beckett anywhere around the 7-8th rounds in a 12 teamer…. I wouldn’t take Shields until about the 14th, i’d rather have David Price than Shields. I think Shields really needs to move down to about where AJ Burnett is….
It can be debated where Shields, Beckett, Gallardo, etc… should be ranked as they are, but Aaron Harang ranked at 37 is most interesting to me. I’ve been looking for a reason to draft him in late rounds as a sleeper, but your ranking makes him a 12-13-14 round pick in a 12 team league. A little strong, don’t you think?
A few initial thoughts:
Jimenez at 12: I like him and have him in a keeper league, but top 15-20 would seem safer.
Hamels at 14: At least 5 places too high.
Wainwright at 15: I’d have him top 10 for sure.
Shields at 16: No way I take him there. Above Lee? Above Johnson? Not close in my book.
Lee at 18: I would have thought borderline top 10 rather than borderline top 20. We know he can pitch in the AL, and what’s not to like about his recent record, the defence behind him and the new ballpark?
Peavy at 21: I’m just not a believer. I’m to saying he can’t be a top 20 guy, but I don’t think he will come close.
Do not sleep on Gallardo. Their was a debate when him and Lincecum came up who would turn out better (im pretty sure we know now, but dont forget about Gallardo). The stuff/arsenal is there and *if* he can find his control he’ll be a top 5 SP.
Gallardo has had some setbacks in the past and last year was his first full season really. Also, Lincecum’s two years older then Gallardo, so essentially last year Gallardo was the same age as Lincecum was as a rookie, so lets compare.
At age 23, Both had 9+ k/9, 4 bb/9, both also had BAA in the 220’s. Both were similar in contact rates and have 4 above average pitches and both looked to be ground ball pitchers (Albeit Lince’s was higher). At age 23 they’re very similar…
I just believe Gallardo tired out after the all-star break last year. He was sitting on a 3.22 era; 1.23 whip; w/ 123 k’s in 114 innings, not to mention a sick .203 BAA at the all-star break. Thats pretty stellar for a 23 year old IMO. He’s going to be a great pitcher very soon once the command comes to fruition. The RP also noted his MILB BB rate wasnt this high, so im optimistic he’ll work the BB/9 down and thus work his way up these rankings.
EZ:
I cant say im stoked working Lee up towards the top 10. I do like the new ballpark and defense working with him, but he’s not a big K guy and his sometimes stellar whip depends on how many hits he gives up. The BB rate is outstanding, so he has that going for him, but he usually gives up a fair amount of hits (as why the whip was at 1.24 last year, when he had a BB rate out of this world). The 22 wins from 08 isnt coming back, and take that away and give him 15 wins, it makes me less impressed.
The 08 season was also helped by an insane hr rate. I believe last year was a great season to base this season on. 3.20 / 3.50 era & 1.20 / 1.25 whip would be a great estimate. Add around 170 K’s and we’re looking at a good season, but im not sure its closer to the top 10, then where it is now. I can see those same numbers from JJ, Nolasco, Hanson, beckett etc but with more K’s. I only see a great Era honestly, but the whip/K rate just doesnt scream have to draft to me. Now if he can cut the hits down (never had BAA under 254 though) then the whip will be elite and he’ll look alot more attractive to have. I like his ranking personally…
BLAZE:
I take your point completely. I rank Lee borderline top 10 as I think he has a much higher floor than the other guys you mentioned. Do I think 2 or 3 of the higher K/9 guys are going to outrank him at the end of the season? Absolutely. Do I feel confident that I could tell you which 2 or 3 guys? No. I’m an admirer of JJ, Hanson etc, and the upside is great. I could see Nolasco posting 15 wins, 3.5 ERA, 190 Ks, but there is a real chance that he posts a 4.3 ERA and 11 wins. A few guys will undoubtably surpass Lee, but those guys last year were supposed to be Liriano, Billingsley, Gallardo and Chamberlain. In that list I trust Lee above guys like Kershaw, Jimenez, Johnson and Hamels - despite the upside.
Ervin Santana was supposed to be in the same class as Billingsley too. Any chance he rebounds this year? Take a peak at his 2008 before his arm injury.
bjp- key words there:
before his arm injury
Check his post-all-star splits last year. 99 innings, 77 ks, 30 BBs, 7-3, 3.90era. He might be back on track. Coming off a strong August and September, he’s not a bad gamble this year.
I wanted to go back to the Shields-Beckett-Johnson debate for a minute. I can understand those who want to rank Beckett & Johnson ahead of Shields, but let’s not act like Shields is a scrub pitcher.
Are we just going to ignore his ‘07 & ‘08 seasons where he posted WHIPs of 1.11 and 1.15? Are we going to expect him to repeat his below average BABIP of .317 (he was at .292 the prior two years)? Are we ignoring his control the prior two years, when he posted BB/9s of 1.51 and 1.67?
I agree, Shields had a down year, but I wouldn’t simply write him off. The three are really close and I can understand jumbling the order a bit, but don’t consider Shields a poor option.
Onto some of the other comments:
BJP, E. Santana has only put it together for one season, so I can’t pencil him in for those types of numbers. As a late round flyer, sure, he’s worth the gamble, but he’s not good enough to crack the Top 45.
Jair Jurrjens isn’t top 45?
He’s listed as #39
What about Mark Buehrle, I mean he threw a perfect game and he doesn’t crack the top 45.
Not a fan of Shields either. The dude should be ranked at least 5-6 spots lower. BLAZE made some excellent points which I’d like to add to. SHields has an increasing walk and hit rate the last 3 years combined with a decreasing K rate. Bad news.