Best Pitching Prospect for 2010 = Wade Davis?
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Best Pitching Prospect for 2010 = Wade Davis?

By Tim Lawrence

Earlier, Rotoprofessor predicted that Desmond Jennings may well be the one the best prospects to roster in 2010, with his all around skills, including blazing speed, good contact skills and some moderate power upside. On the other side of the diamond, Wade Davis may just be the best pitching prospect to roster, though he is flying under the radar a little bit. Davis made his debut last year for the Rays, going 2-2, pitching 36.1 innings, striking out 36 and walking only 13.

Minor League Record and Tools

Davis has done nothing but produce since the Rays have drafted him, dominating every level, never having higher than a 3.85 E.R.A., and averaging over 9 K/9 up through AA, and over 8 K/9 in AAA. In his small MLB sample size, he more than held his own, and missed a lot of bats. Though he dominates with a low to mid 90’s 4-seam fastball, he has maintained an ability to get ground balls, even as he’s moved up the ladder, which speaks to his improvement in command not only of his fastball, but also of his filthy curveball and average changeup. He still walks a few too many, but should improve on that. He probably will end up as ML average in GB ratio, but along with 7.5 to 8.5 K/9 ability should land him as a #2 starter.

2010 Role

One of the best things that Davis has going for him in 2010 is his role. He starts the season as the Rays #5 starter, a role that benefits him in two ways: number one, there is less expectation on #5 starters and number two, he will get significant rest, keeping him fresh down the stretch. Tampa has been careful with Davis, like many of their prospects, moving him up about a level per year, so he should be ready to pitch every fifth day in the majors. The Rays also slowly built up his innings, topping out at over 180 innings last year.

2010 Projection

12 wins
175 IP
164 Hits
71 BB
144 K
21 HR allowed
3.96 E.R.A
1.33 WHIP

These are solid numbers and could result in him contending for Rookie of the Year honors. I actually think Davis has the potential to do even a little better than this projection. Research has shown that 56% of pitchers with at least one year AAA experience do well upon their promotions to MLB while over 80% struggle when promoted prior to having one year AAA experience. Since the Rays took their time with Davis, that could mean a nice year in 2010, considering his ability. And since Neftali Feliz’s role is still uncertain, and very well could be in relief, Davis could be the rookie pitcher in 2010 that makes the biggest impact.

Tim Lawrence is the creator of Dynasty Mine, a website devoted to fantasy baseball from a Keeper and Dynasty League perspective.

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

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This entry was posted on Monday, February 8th, 2010 at 1:14 pm and is filed under Player News, Prospects. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

7 Responses to “Best Pitching Prospect for 2010 = Wade Davis?”

  1. What worries me the most about Davis (from a fantasy prospective) is that he pitches in the AL East. Tampa facing NY and Boston 38 times can do damage to a young pitcher. In fact, this may make me steer clear of all AL East pitchers regardles of how long they have been in the league.

  2. Good Point Peter, though they also get to face Baltimore and Toronto, so I would say its not all bad. So you’d steer clear of C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester?

  3. I love Wade Davis for the ROY this year, but let’s not forget about another AL East pitcher by the name of Brian Matusz. He had a better record than Davis(5-2)in his first taste of the bigs and I think that they will both get some consideration for the award if everything goes well.

  4. Baltimore’s offense is underrated - Jones, Weiters, Reimold, Markakis, Tejada, Roberts, Scott - the core of those guys should do some damage not only in 2010 but for years to come.

    Don’t get me wrong, I still like Davis. But lets be fair to the O’s!

  5. Tim, Baltimore’s lineup this year will be nothing to scoff at. They will put up runs.

  6. I definitely stay away from Beckett, Sabathia and Lester. To get those guys you have to use one of your top picks, and that goes against my strategy. Last year I got Greinke, Wainright, Kershaw and Lilly with post 10th round picks. My plan again this year is to wait on taking pitching.

  7. Peter: staying way from Sabathia, Beckett and Lester in the context of your strategy makes some sense. If you are looking for value, then maybe I’d zero in on Haren, Nolasco, Hamels, and Anderson, and maybe Billingsley. One or more of these guys may slip farther than they should in your draft. In 5×5 shallower leagues I tend to stay away from hyped starters as well, and spend my top picks on established bats, and stay away from risk.

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