Congrats to everyone who successfully guessed our first projection. Let’s try another one:
2010 Projection:
195.0 IP, 16 W, 3.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 188 K (8.68 K/9), 80 BB (3.69 BB/9)
Clues:
- He’s a right-handed pitcher
- He’s under 28-years old
- He does not pitch in the AL East or NL East
So, who do you think it is?
I like this Game! Chad Billingsley
Zambrano
Definitely Ubaldo Jimenez
Ubaldo Jimenez
I would guess Billingsley as well
How bout’ Yovani Gallardo
The “Not AL or NL East” is a dirty trick, as this is clearly AJ Burnett.
I’m calling Adam Wainwright.
Ubaldo Jimenez?
I’ll also throw out Clayton Kershaw but my money’s on Jimenez
Wainwright.
Looking at the guys mentioned so far:
Wainwright: The BB rate is too high
Gallardo: I can’t see 16 wins and I’d go 9+ K/9
Kershaw: Control an issue so 4+ BB/9 and won’t go deep enough into games for 16 wins
Billingsley: Possible though I’d go for lower wins and a 3.7 ERA.
Zambrano: Where do I start???
Which leaves Jimenez. I think it is towards the optimistic end of the spectrum, but he’s my best guess.
At a push it might be Billingsley, but as RP ranks Jimenez at 12 and Billinglsey at 23, then Jimenez seems the guy.
I have Jake Peavy in an AL keeper league and I can only hope that these are his numbers at the end of the season; I’ll guess him.
I’m going Billingsley as well.
Max Scherzer?
How about Edwin Jackson?
I went through the same options in my mind.
And it can’t be Clayton Kershaw as he is a lefty.
I think the K/9 is too low, and the total IP is too low to be Gallardo.
K/9 is too low to be Ubaldo.
I think the BB/9 is too high to be Wainwright or Peavy
Could definitely be Billingsley.
It could be Justin verlander, if the Professor is predicting a major regression to his 2008 form. But the IP is too low to be Verlander
I’m gonna go with Max Scherzer. 195 IP is nice 25 IP increase from last season. The rates are inline with his prior performance. And its very safe to assume that with his ability, his ERA will come down slightly in his 2nd full season.
Scherzer it is !
Homer Bailey!
I’m saying Chad Billingsley
I’m going with Jorge De La Rosa.
I’d optimistically say Brian Anderson, though I suspect Rotoprofessor would have him lower in Wins and higher in ERA.
Gavin Floyd
Congrats to those who guessed Chad Billingsley, though there certainly were plenty of great guesses here.
Here’s his write-up from the draft guide:
“Billingsley took a huge step back in his development, with a 5.20 ERA in the season’s second half. Where he really got burnt was in the long ball. In 125.1 innings prior to the All-Star Break he allowed 9 HR, then 8 HR in just 71 innings after that. That’s a huge difference and certainly helped contributed to his inflated ERA. He was also significantly more hittable, though a lot of that came with worse luck. While his K/9 did decrease by about a strikeout (8.56 to 7.61), his BABIP went from .278 to .320. He’s been too good for too long to think that he’s suddenly going to be as bad as he was in the 2nd half. Look for him to return to the pitcher he was, meaning getting him on the cheap would be a smart play.”
Um, I meant Brett, not Brian….