Keeper League Conundrum: Adam Jones or Pablo Sandoval?
by Jimmy Hascup
There are times that I must relinquish my expertise on RP and leave it to all you guys to help me out.
As I’ve written about previously, one of the leagues I play in is a keeper league in which we just decreased the keeper number from ten to eight, in order to even out the playing field.
Since I have been a manager who has enjoyed his fair share of success, I must make some tough choices regarding my 2010 keepers.
Here’s the deal, I am going to let you guys know who six of my eight keepers are … the other two I’m also deliberating on will be discussed in a post next week. While I have a very good feeling about who I am going to keep, it is entirely possible that I will change my mind if some of the arguments are persuasive enough to make me reconsider.
My current lineup features: Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Ian Kinsler, David Wright, Justin Upton, Troy Tulowitzki.
My current puzzle involves two very promising players: Pablo Sandoval and Adam Jones. We start five outfielders, and we have a 1b, 3b, CI spot, as well.
Since we’ve discussed each player before in varying degrees, I’m going to make the a small case for each player. Let’s take a look:
Pablo Sandoval (.330 AVG, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 79 R, 5 SB)
We all know the portly Kung Fu Panda can hit the baseball, as the .330 average would indicate. He’s also a career .303 hitter in the minors. Most of his average is buoyed by a very high BABIP (.356 in the majors), but it is not entirely unusual for him since he’s lived off of one for his entire career up to this point.
Pablo also has the framework of a legitimate power source at first base/third base, minus one aspect, but we’ll get to that in a minute. His 20.2LD%/44.9GB%/34.8FB% compare very favorably to Miguel Cabrera, a consistent threat in his own right: 21.5%/41.7GB%/36.8FB%. But of course, there’s one thing that remains a very large ‘IF’ when it comes to Pablo, his HR/FB rate. Last season he enjoyed a rate that doubled from the previous season to 14.0%. Cabrera has an 18.1 % mark for his career. I’m not trying to compare Pablo and Cabrera’s power, but there’s a big difference between a proven commodity and one that’s still taking shape.
Sandoval is entering his age-23 season and while it’s very possible he continues to grow into a bigger power threat, I’m dubious. I believe he has reached his power peak. In 1761 AB’s in the minors, Pablo only had 35 homeruns … he had 25 last year alone after just three in 145 AB’s in his initial major league stint.
What I love: Pablo will not disappoint in batting average. While he may not reach .330, even if he bats .320, can I really complain? Pablo will hit, so I’m also not worried about his RBI numbers, though those will be dictated by the guys in front of him in the batting order.
What I’m worried about: The power. A first basemen or third basemen who can hit 25 HR annually is an asset. One who swats just 15 HR is someone I can wait on and take later in my draft
Adam Jones (.277 AVG, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 83 R, 10 SB)
In his second full season, Jones made some very noticeable strides. What’s interesting to note is that he actually played less games (119 to 132) than 2008 because of some injuries, yet most of his rates across the board improved dramatically: he walked more, struckout less, displayed more of his raw power, and saw his batting average increase, even with his BABIP less than the year before.
Jones had long been a prospect swooned over for his raw tools and sheer athleticism since he was drafted by the Mariners as a 17-year-old and last year we saw glimpses of it translating at the big leagues.
Jones saw his HR/FB spike to nearly 18% last season, from 7% the year before. For one, I don’t believe the 2008 rate one bit. Jones did hit 16 HR and 25 HR in 2006 and 2007 in Triple-A, so he has shown power potential before. The other aspect of this that makes me a believer in Jones’ power from 2009 is that he hit fly-balls at a career low rate last season. If the fly-ball ratio increases in 2010 and the HR/FB regresses slightly, I still think we can see a season that Jones hits 25 HRs.
On the batting average side I can live with another season of .277. Though, it’s another area I can see Jones improving upon. Would one in the .280s be entirely out of the question?
The Orioles center fielder also has above average speed, yet he’s not the most aggressive basestealer and has only stolen 10 bases apiece in the past two seasons. As he gains more confidence I can also see him stealing 15 next season.
What I love: Jones is a 5-tool player, who can produce across the board. His future seems much more exciting than Sandoval’s because he’s the more dynamic player (offense and defense) and the much better athlete.
What I’m worried about: Even though Jones isn’t as refined a hitter yet, Sandoval may always be the better one. There are also three outfielders per every major league team, which means there’s always a plethora of them to choose from. Further, are the injuries from 2009 just a minute blip on the radar, or is it something that will stunt his development in the future?
What do you guys think? The choice may seem obvious - and maybe it is - but let’s see what you would do in my situation. Remember this is a keeper league, so both the present and the future need to be considered!
I think it’s a no-brainer, Sandoval all the way. You don’t need Jones’ 10-15 steals, you have Kinsler, Hanley, and Upton already. Your infield will be set except your corner spot and while everyone else is fighting over the elite corner guys, you can load up with elite outfielders. Assuming this is a 12 team league and you start 5 outfielders, that’s only 60. There are 90 starting outfielders and Jones is borderline top 30 (not even the best on his own team IMO) Plus Pablo has dual eligibility. Ride the Panda.
the Q I have is: how could you possibly lose with those keeprs and how did you get them all? thats just insane. good for you dude.
A couple of questions:
1. How many teams in your league?
2. Does the league allow trading prior to finalising your keepers?
You seem to have an insane group of keepers already, which probably means that a load of other teams have really poor keepers. If you are allowed to trade still, then try to trade Sandoval and Jones for an elite talent. That way, they other guy gets two good keepers and you don’t have to throw one guy back into the pot. Both teams win.
I think Darin nailed it. Also, in a keeper league, Future is not the question with either of these guys. They are 23 and 24. No worries there.
For me Panda is a slam dunk (even if I could never actually envision him doing a slam dunk). Are you seriously worried about Sandoval only hitting 15 HR’s? I’d be more worried about Adam Jones hitting 20 (though I think he will reach that level easily). From where I’m sitting you must keep the Kung Fu Panda, especially with the lack of depth at 3B.
E-Z yeah we can trade before finalizing keepers. And it is a 12-team league. To the rest: I took a chance on Tulo (traded for him early in the year), waited on Upton since even before he was called up, and just had solid drafts to enable me to get the other guys lol
I think Jones is being overrated this year. Panda is the right choice. Especially since you have a CI spot.
I always say, go with the guy that can hit .320+. 5 tool players like Jones come and go (and often get injured due to their position and aggressiveness). Guys that can consistently hit well above .300 are hard to find and, as you noted, usually produce good run production. He’s 23, his minor league HRs should not be used as a predictor. He’s still maturing. No brainer to me.
I’m gonna be the dissenting voice here. And you can blame it on my O’s bias if you like, but I think you should keep Adam Jones.
The first reason that came to mind was the fact that you have 5 OF spots. I’ve played in leagues with 5 OF spots and those 3 OF/MLB team dry up in a hurry. So keeping Adam Jones will let you focus on either some SP depth or a power 1B at the onset of your draft.
You mentioned all the things there are to like about Jones. ALL his peripherals went up last year. Imagine if they all went up again, which is not out of the question as he doesn’t turn 25 until August.
Assuming good health, I see his 2010 as something like:
651 PA, 46 BB(7.07BB%), 114 K(17.5 K%),
173/605, .286/.347/.475, 25 HR, 79 R, 95 RBI, 13 SB
Those numbers also assume slight improvements in K% (he went from 21.0 to 17.9 in 2009), BB% (from 4.5 to 6.9 in 2009), and BABIP (hence higher batting average)
There are a couple drawbacks to Adam that you didn’t mention in your post. I think the highest he will hit in the lineup is 5th. He won’t hit leadoff, 3rd, or 4th. There’s an outside shot at him hitting 2nd (which is where he did his damage in April-June of last year) but I see him hitting 5th or 6th this year. He’s also a little reckless in center field, which explains his missing time the last 2 seasons.
So much of Sandoval’s value was in him being C-eligibile last year, which he is not anymore, and most likely won’t be again. The 3B well is shallow, but that won’t bother you as you have David Wright.
Both players would be nice to have, and I would certainly understand if you went with the Panda, but I would take Jones.
Jimmy:
I that case target a weak link. Look for a manager with one or two elite keepers and very little else. Then make him an offer that he’d be crazy to turn down. Those excess roster guys have no value at all to you, except as trade bait. Even if you have to package 3 or 4 guys together, I’m guessing Jones and one or two of your other guys would be big upgrades from whatever they have.
Sandoval with his offseason workouts will have more stamina near the end of the season. He is still developing as a third baseman remember he was a catcher to begin with. He has a lot of upside and is going to play third base. At 23 years old a player still develops physically until their about 25 or 26. Kung Fu Panda is going to bat third in the order so opportunities will occur if the guys in front get on base. Jones will grow also as he is only 24. Panda will be a 300 career hitter because he is a good contact hitter. He will also develop his power. I would take Panda in a heart beat every year in my league because of his upside. he will only get better.
Keep them both and throw back Wright.
Keep Adam Jones because of the 5 OF (and his upside). With Wright already at 3B, you should fill your CI spot with a second 1B, not another 3B. I agree on not much more power for the Panda. Of course, a trade is probably your best bet.
Dave, I’d have to say that is one of the biggest reasons I’d keep Jones over Pablo. 1B are easy to come by, but in a 5 OFer league, how many will really have the upside that Jones does?
Whatever you do I’m still waiting for the Wieters deal!
Seriously though keep
Wow that cut out.
I meant to say seriously though keep Sandoval. CI is much more important (and harder to find) then OF. Everyone is keeping that so-so CI and they are dumping that so-so OF.
At the same time, Sandoval’s trade value has never been higher.
Would you trade your Adam Jones for someones Sandoval?
Would you trade your Sandoval for someones Adam Jones?
Right now. Not after we see them play 2010.
Easy Choice. You keep Pablo Sandoval. You can move him for a BETTER OF’er than Adam Jones. HANDS DOWN. Its a matter of value if nothing else. 3B is shallow and someone without a 3B will pay you for him. Toss Jones back in and try and draft him, if you can’t do that there’s reimold, etc in the draft, i’d take my chances in the OF. Its the position that comes up from the minors more often than any other.