Is Adam Dunn Really A One-Trick Pony?
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Is Adam Dunn Really A One-Trick Pony?

You look at Adam Dunn and there’s one thing that comes to mind, home runs.  That’s it.  That’s really all you need to know about him, isn’t it?  Is he really that type of one-trick pony?

Before answering that question, we need to look at a few things:

2009 Statistics:
546 At Bats
.267 Batting Average (146 Hits)
38 Home Runs
105 RBI
81 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.398 On Base Percentage
.529 Slugging Percentage
.324 Batting Average on Balls in Play

What You Need To Know:

  • Last year was the first time since 2003 that he hadn’t hit 40 HR or more, but he certainly was pretty close.  There are few players that you can pencil that type of power in for every season.
  • The average came from some favorable luck.  It was actually the best BABIP of his career and just the second time he’s been above .300 since 2005.  Needless to say, the chances of him replicating that type of average is likely a long shot, especially when you consider his 32.4% career strikeout rate.
  • He tried just one stolen base last season, but is only two years removed from attempting 11 (and being successful on nine of them).  While that’s not a huge number, it would be something at least.  Unfortunately, with just four attempts the past two seasons, it just doesn’t appear to be in the cards.
  • Thanks to the power, he’s almost a shoe in to reach 100 RBI.  In fact, he’s been at 100 or better in five of the past six seasons, with 92 the one year he didn’t reach the plateau.
  • While slugging in the middle of the Reds lineup he was also nearly a lock for 100 runs scored (he was between 99 and 107 every year from 2004-2007).  Unfortunately, he scored just 81 times last season and unless someone like Josh Willingham or Elijah Dukes suddenly flourishes, he’s likely to be in the same range once again.  It’s a shame because he does a great job of getting on base (17.4% walk rate in ‘09), the lineup just isn’t deep enough.
  • He is likely to have eligibility at both 1B and OF, which certainly helps his value.

2010 Projection:
.249 (132-530), 40 HR, 100 RBI, 80 R, 2 SB, .285 BABIP, .376 OBP, .523 SLG

Final Thoughts:
Basically, Adam Dunn should continue to be exactly what he’s been for his entire career.  Not quite a one trick pony, thanks to the RBI, but he’s pretty close.  If you are adverse to someone who will hinder you in average, he’s not the guy for you.  However, if you’re strong there and looking for some pop, you can’t get much better.

I have him ranked at #68, slightly below his ADP of around 56.  That means it’s not likely that I’m going to get him, but if he falls to me I wouldn’t shy away.

What about you?  Is Dunn a player you would be willing to draft?  What are the chances he once again reaches 40 HR?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including:

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 5th, 2010 at 6:04 am and is filed under Player Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Responses to “Is Adam Dunn Really A One-Trick Pony?”

  1. Yeah, I’ll take that pop and bolster my average later. There are a bunch of guys who can raise that average, even his teammate Guzman if you’re desperate, but finding those 40 HRs is tough.

  2. Not a big fan of him unless you get him much later than expected. I’d much prefer Billy Butler 2 rounds later with a much higher average. Here’s a question…Dunn or Berkman for this season?

  3. In OPS leagues he’s a monster, and a great guy to pair with a Youk or a Kung-Fu Panda if you can swing it.

  4. Quintilian B. Nasty on March 5th, 2010 at 3:45 pm

    I play in a OBP league, so I value Dunn more than most folks. Since most projections are based on average, he usually gets taken later than he should. The big fella is consistent and has been durable (knock on wood). I see know reason why he can’t reach 40 HRs again. The Nats lineup will be stronger.

  5. always been a big fan of the donkey punch, although last year was the first year i owned him in a league. while every player has thier plus’s and minus’s, there is something to be said for consistancy- and dunn has been money in the bank 40 hr, 90r, 100rbi. the line up is getting better around him and its vertually impossible to find 40hr’s at his adp

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