Top 15 Closers For 2010: Joe Nathan Fallout
By now we’ve all heard about the injury to Joe Nathan, which has the potential to end his 2010 campaign before it even begins. According to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minnesota Star-Tribune (click here for the full article):
“While surgery certainly looks to be imminent, Nathan will take two weeks to let the swelling in the area subside. He’ll work with the trainers to strengthen the muscles around the elbow. And then he will try to pitch. He’s prepared to pitch in pain - given the huge expectations placed on the 2010 Twins - and is prepared to tests the limits of his tolerance level.”
Only then will we know for sure that he’s going to miss the entire year due to Tommy John Surgery. At this point, if you are drafting over the next two weeks, you have to ask yourself if you are willing to take the gamble on Nathan (who was previously the second ranked closer on my rankings) and if he’s going to pitch.
Let’s first take a look at how this news shuffles the rankings:
- Jonathan Broxton - Los Angeles Dodgers
- Mariano Rivera - New York Yankees
- Joakim Soria - Kansas City Royals
- Jonathan Papelbon - Boston Red Sox
- Francisco Rodriguez - New York Mets
- Heath Bell - San Diego Padres
- Brian Wilson - San Francisco Giants
- Jose Valverde - Detroit Tigers
- Billy Wagner - Atlanta Braves
- Huston Street - Colorado Rockies
- Andrew Bailey - Oakland Athletics
- Frank Francisco - Texas Rangers
- Trevor Hoffman - Milwaukee Brewers
- Rafael Soriano - Tampa Bay Rays
- Francisco Cordero - Cincinnati Reds
Nathan is just too good of a pitcher to completely ignore at this point. With the potential for him to still pitch, even at 70%, he’s still worth taking the flyer on in all formats in the last few rounds of your draft. Unfortunately, that’s not enough to keep him in the Top 15.
I certainly wouldn’t ignore him, however, until the news breaks that he is officially out for the entire 2010 season. According to Mock Draft Central there are 21 relief pitchers with ADPs in the first 200. After that, why not take the gamble on Nathan, backing him up with Jon Rauch or Matt Guerrier? When you are drafting guys at that point, you are concerned about them losing their job anyways, right?
What are your thoughts? Would you take the gamble on Nathan? What are the chances he actually pitches?
If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here.
Make sure to check out our 2010 yearly league rankings:
- Catchers
- First Basemen
- Second Basemen
- Third Basemen
- Shortstops
- Outfielders
- Designated Hitters
- Starting Pitchers
My bet is that he’s out all year and doesn’t get back to his old self for 18-24 months.
I also think Nathan never pitches again for the Twins. The Twins can’t afford the current payroll and re-sign Mauer so he’s going to have to be traded. My bet is to the Yankees since Rivera will be close to retiring.
Nathan is 35. A year off puts him at 36. This could be the end of the road for him actually.
Judging by the tears at the press conference, I think Nathan may suspect himself that he’s done for good. He’s probably not at a point in his career where it makes sense for him to try to rehab Tommy John with the idea of pitching again.
weird to think of Nathan retiring already! seems like a possibility..