Top 15 SS For 2010: Jose Reyes Fallout
Jose Reyes’ thyroid problem throws a huge wrench into fantasy owners’ plans for their upcoming draft. Not only does he have a known problem, but the timeframe for his potential return is wide open. According to Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News (click here for the article), “Reyes cannot have any physical exertion for the next two to eight weeks”.
If that were not enough, once he returns to physical activities he will need additional time to get himself into game shape. That means, on a worst-case scenario, Reyes will not return to until mid-to-late May. How likely is that? Who really knows, which simply complicates matters even more. There’s a chance he misses a week, but at the same time there’s a chance he misses nearly two months.
So, how much of a gambler are you? How high are you willing to select him on draft day? Let’s take a look at how my current rankings sit:
- Hanley Ramirez - Florida Marlins
- Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies
- Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies
- Derek Jeter - New York Yankees
- Jose Reyes - New York Mets
- Alexei Ramirez - Chicago White Sox
- Elvis Andrus - Texas Rangers
- Everth Cabrera - San Diego Padres
- Jhonny Peralta - Cleveland Indians
- Stephen Drew - Arizona Diamondbacks
- Jason Bartlett - Tampa Bay Rays
- Yunel Escobar - Atlanta Braves
- Erick Aybar - Los Angeles Angels
- Rafael Furcal - Los Angeles Dodgers
- J.J. Hardy - Minnesota Twins
He’s a speculative pick at this point, but the rewards may just outweigh the risk. While he gets dropped slightly (he was original ranked third), I simply can’t move him down any further. What happens if you bypass him for Ramirez and Reyes only misses three weeks? There’s just little chance that Ramirez outperforms Reyes in that scenario.
I’d take the gamble, but what about you? How far do you downgrade Reyes based on this news?
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Best case we’re looking at an ARod in 2009 or Pujols in 2008 scenario here, both times I was too scared to pull the trigger and the owner who did got elite production at a steep discount. It’s not like Reyes wasn’t in shape before this happened, so 6-8 weeks off, I wouldn’t imagine it will take him too long to be major league ready. I’m thinking of taking the plunge with Reyes and put Alcides or Elvis on my bench. Reyes is definitely the biggest risk/reward of the draft. I need to talk to a doctor and find out if a hyperactive thyroid that has been “normalized” can still make an athlete have periods of inability to be athletic, or if a change in diet is all that’s necessary. And I would like the answer before my draft on Sunday.
Where is Escobar on this list? For 1 thing I would put A. Escobar 8th on this list. I would put Reyes 9th. If Escobar can hit 2nd in the brewers lineup with Weeks ahead of him and Braun and Fielder behind him, I would take Escobar over an injured Reyes.
What about Asdrubal Cabrera? Hitting leadoff?
There’s a case for Asdrubal at #6, certainly #8.
I’m not the believer in Cabrera that many people are. His .308 average was buoyed by a .360 BABIP. He has little power. He has moderate, but not exceptional speed.
If his average is going to fall into the .280-.290 range (which is very believable), he needs to have either power or speed to make him a player I’d actually want to target.
I’ll write-up a full article on him, but I’m certainly skeptical of him.
As for Escobar, where he bats in the lineup and if the team allows him to run wild certainly impacts his potential value. He’s just outside my Top 15, but worth taking a flyer for sure.
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I dont know if I’d put too much faith in what the METS TRAINING staff has to say.
2 months off “at the most” for REYES, will turn into the all star break, which will turn into the season, which will turn into a career ending problem….
I know its JUST a Thyroid, but these guys have lied before and strung people along with Beltran. They can NOT be trusted!
Say you had a chance to trade Reyes for Ramirez straight up? In a league where Reyes is $27 and Ramirez is $18?
Sawyer, keeper league I assume?
I would agree with your ranking of Reyes as the fifth best SS. But at the same time I wouldn’t draft him. I’d be fine settling for someone like Elvis Andrus a few rounds later and use that pick on someone more dependable.
I already had reservations about him because of the leg injury from last year and whether he can run as well as he used to since that was the majority of his value.
Ugh. This throws an abnormally sized monkey wrench into my keeper plans (we keep four, 10-team league.) I already had Reynolds and Votto as locks going into our redraft, was prospectively going to keep Reyes, and was waffling between Grandy and Wieters. Am I better off keeping the latter two, swallowing the bitter pill and hoping for the best w/ Reyes, or keeping Ramirez, who I have the luxury of having rostered last year as well? Any help would be much appreciated.
I’d take Asdrubal before Peralta, Aybar, or Hardy.
Lot of clamoring for Asdrubal. To me, he’s a backup fantasy SS. Not even sure I’d want him as my MI.
I’m going to do an article on Cabrera on Monday to help settle this issue. That should be a fun discussion!