Rotoprofessor

by William Overton

Let’s cotninue looking at some strategies behind drafting in NL-Only formats:

NL Only Sleepers
Sleepers in a league like this will be different than those in a mixed league. Guys on this list are probably guys who you would most likely not consider in a normal 10 team mixed league, but are worth a look in this type of league.

Kyle Blanks: He isn’t getting much press this year because he plays in San Diego but that’s one of the reasons I have him on this list. He doesn’t have much competition in the outfield so he should be an everyday starter and not only that, but with the power he showed last year he’ll likely hit in the middle of the line up somewhere between 3-5. His power wasn’t a fluke as he’s shown it at every level and last year he had a HR ever 14.8 AB’s. With 450 ABs that will be 30 HRs and he’s only 23 so he is far from his ceiling.

Pedro Alvarez: He looked impressive in the minors last year hitting over .280 with 27 HRs. If he was in a different farm system I wouldn’t put him here, but the Pirates are short on talent and Alvarez is the bright spot in a bleak franchise. I don’t think he’ll do what Longoria did a couple years ago, but I do think he’ll have the same opportunity.  If he doesn’t make the big league team out of the gates he’ll be there before June.

Sean West: He’s competing for a spot in the Florida rotation this spring and my money says he’ll get it. Even if he doesn’t he has to be considered as a guy to keep an eye on considering the inconsistency and injury issues of the Florida Marlins starters. He’s 6′8″, throws in the mid 90s and has decent control (never walking more than 4 guys in a game last year). I don’t expect amazing consistency, but I do expect flashes of greatness this year, a steady rise in Ks that I think will be higher than 7 K/9 and somewhere between 10 - 12 wins. I wouldn’t take him in a mixed league, but I really like the potential value in an NL Only league.

Closers in Waiting
This is another big thing in NL Only leagues. Saves come at a premium and you would be wise to make sure you get at least one solid guy. You’re certainly not guaranteed a second guy so it’s essential to nab a couple of guys who could poach saves during the year or take over the job at some point. The key here is opportunity, so here are a few guys who could be closing before the end of the year due to either injury or inconsistency from the current closer.

John Grabow: I don’t trust Carlos Marmol at all. He walks to many guys and is too inconsistent.  Unless he takes a step forward this year I predict the Cubs will be looking for someone else sooner than later. Grabow doesn’t have the best track record with walks either, but he does seem much more consistent as a whole and because there are a lack of other options, he could get the job by default if Marmol falters. However, keep an eye on Jeff Gray who came over as the biggest piece in the Jake Fox trade and may make a splash this year.

Takashi Saito: This is not anything against Wagner who I actually like this year. However, we all know he is injury prone and the chances of him being healthy for the whole year isn’t great. Couple that with the fact that Saito is one of the better setup men out there and he’s worth a late round pick.

Luke Gregerson: This is once again nothing against the guy closing games right now. Heath Bell was great last year and I expect a repeat performance. If the Padres are out of it at the deadline Bell could be big time trade bait. If that happens Gregerson should step into the role and could be a very nice surprise. Not to mention with 93 K’s in 75 IP last year he can be helpful as nothing more than a setup man.

Drafting Starting Pitching
This is the last thing I want to touch on and it may be more my own personal preference, but I believe in non-mixed leagues that the idea of waiting on pitching goes out the window. In mixed leagues you can wait until the 7th or 8th round to take your first pitcher and still get Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo or Josh Beckett. If you do that in an NL Only League you’re looking at Ryan Dempster or Roy Oswalt. In my opinion your best strategy is to grab one of the big 6 guys (see below) and than grab a number 2 in the 7th or 8th round where Oswalt and Dempster as your number 2 is much more appealing. After this you can just grab value guys as they’re available. You don’t want to be forced into taking a bunch of pitchers in the middle rounds higher than they should go because you missed out on one of the big guys early. If you do miss out on one of the big 6, don’t miss out on the next tier of guys I have listed below.

The Big Six:

• Tim Lincecum
• Roy Halladay
• Adam Wainwright
• Dan Haren
• Johan Santana
• Chris Carpenter

Those Who Could Join The Big Six:

• Tommy Hanson
• Yovani Gallardo
• Josh Johnson
• Cole Hamels
• Ubaldo Jimmenez
• Clayton Kershaw

So that’s it for the NL Only Primer. I will post a recap of my NL Only Draft in the next couple days and than look for the same thing for the AL sometime next week. Feel free to give your thoughts.

To read the first part of the NL Primer, looking at position scarcity and flexibility, click here.