Carlos Quentin has proven that, when healthy, he has a ton of power. He hit 36 HR in 480 AB in 2008 and 21 HR in 351 AB in 2009. However, he’s never hit for much of an average. His career high is .288, but overall he’s just a .254 hitter.
That leads to today’s prediction…
Carlos Quentin will hit at least .310 in 2010
First of all he’s just never had much luck in the Major Leagues. For his career he’s sporting a BABIP of .255. Even when he hit .288 in 2007 he was sporting a .278 BABIP.
It’s impossible to say that someone is “due” for good luck, but given his track record you almost have to think that he is. Last season there were only 19 players with a BABIP below that .278. In 2008 there were just 20 players below it. Needless to say, almost by default you have to think he’s going to be luckier this season.
He does a good job putting the ball in play (17.9% strikeout rate). In fact, in the minor leagues he only struck out 13.7% of the time.
You put together that he’s going to be putting the ball in play with all the home runs and all he needs is a little bit of luck to get the job done. Think of it with the following assumptions:
- 500 AB
- 30 HR (my projection is for 28, but this is a nice round number to use)
- 100 K (meaning a 20% strikeout rate)
He would need a BABIP of .338 to hit .310. Last season there were 35 players who were at that mark or better. If his strikeout rate was 18%, right along his career mark, the BABIP would need to be just .329.
Keep in mind that last season his strikeout rate was just 14.8%. If he could match that rate he would need a BABIP of just .316.
Now, just one more number to throw into the mix…
He was a career .314 hitter in the minor leagues.
Chance of Happening: 18%
What are your thoughts? Could Quentin hit at least .310 this season? Why or why not?
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Previous Wild Predictions:
pretty gutsy call for a career .254 hitter, but you make a good case.
I sure hope he does as I picked him in my first league. Definitely think he will outperform his ADP if he stays healthy.
“Book It!”
It’s not bad luck if they do it consistently time after time. It’s who he is. Looking at minor league stats for a player who’s been in the majors for 3 1/2 years doesn’t make sense to me.
He has a low BABIP for a couple of reasons. 1. He’s really slow so anything hit on the ground that isn’t hit really hard is close to an automatic out. 2. He tries to hit home runs every time. In 2009 his GB/FB rate was 0.77 which means he only hit 3/4 the number of grounders as he did flys (Quentin’s OF partner Rios had a ratio of 1.05). 3. Because he doesn’t strikeout. On a tough pitch where many players would swing and miss (or not swing) Quentin makes contact. However, being a tough pitch generally means in a ball that is not hit well. And 4. He plays in Comisky! Have you ever been to their park in the summer? The heat mixed with Lake Michigan makes me feel like I’m in a sauna. This might sound dumb bit I’m sure his BABIP would be .05-.15 higher if the ball didn’t hit a wall of water ever time he hits the ball in the air. I’ve seen hits that I thought were HR just drop on hot days in Chicago. The Cubs at least have a breeze (from Lake Michigan) helping the humidity move along. Comisky doesn’t.
The only chance he has of hitting around .310 is if he gets hurt a month into the season and there is about a 18% chance of that happening with his track record.