by William Overton
If you read my NL Only Primer (you can read Part 1 by clicking here and Part 2 by clicking here) you know I had a draft this past week and I promised a recap. I’m going to post my team and some logic behind my picks. Then I’m going to just hit some of the best and worst picks of the draft, in my opinion. I had the 5th pick of the draft and there were 10 teams.
C: Brian McCann (Rd 3): I went in knowing I wanted McCann because he is head and shoulders above the rest of the catching field in the NL. There we’re other catchers I liked, but I know McCann’s floor and it’s high and I don’t know that we’ve seen his ceiling yet. Adam Wainwright was the only other consideration for me here, but I chose to wait a round for my pitcher.
1B: Prince Fielder (Rd 1): It was between Prince, Kemp and Wright. From a statistical standpoint Fielder was the 2nd best first baseman last year and I have him 3rd in my mixed league rankings, 2nd in the NL. I felt like Fielder was the best lock to be an elite slugger this year of who was left.
2B: Placido Polanco (Rd 10): It was him or Rickie Weeks and I wanted the sure thing. I love the .300 BA and he’ll score a ton of runs in Philly.
3B: Jorge Cantu (Rd 9): One of my favorite picks. The next 3B went 3 rounds later and it was Headley so there was a big dropoff. Chipper Jones went 2 rounds earlier and I would rather have Cantu. He’s not a sexy name but I’ll take 20 HRs and 90 RBI.
SS: Yunel Escobar (Rd 7): Not my favorite pick. Still only had 1 pitcher at this point, but I thought I could get the guy I wanted in the next round and I did. In hindsight I think I should have taken Alcides Escobar and his speed instead, but this another .300 hitter with 100 R potential.
CI: Adrian Gonzalez (Rd 2): I had the unfortunate experience of my computer freezing for this pick and thus I got Gonzalez. Having two 40 HR guys isn’t a bad thing at all, but I would have rather had Dan Haren who went a pick later. I typically like to get an elite hitter and pitcher in the first two rounds.
MI: Eugenio Velez (Rd 18): Not a fan of this pick and probably was the result of me not having a real speedster on my team. I may have been better off with Christian Guzman or Jeff Baker who should get more playing time. At least Velez gives me position flexibility.
OF: Manny Ramirez (Rd 5): This is the pick that I will probably take the most heat for. I don’t expect the Manny of old, but I also don’t anticipate the massive drop-off that others do. I think this is about the right spot for him. However, I would have been better off getting some speed rather than more power. I really wanted Victorino here, but he went 5 spots ahead of me.
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (Rd 6): I love this pick. I would rather have him than McCutchen, Pence or McLouth who all went a round earlier. True 25-25 potential and he’s only 24.
OF: Kyle Blanks (Rd 14): Due to the need to bolster my pitching in the middle rounds I waited a bit for another OFer. If you read my primer you know I love Blanks and his power upside. Could be a poor man’s Adam Dunn this year and at this point I’ll take that.
OF: Cameron Maybin (Rd 16): One of my riskier picks, but the OF was drying up quick. I chose the potential to be good over someone who I knew would be average in Xavier Nady and Melky Cabrera.
UTIL: Chris Dickerson (Rd 20): Another upside guy who could help solve my speed problem if he gets playing time.
BN: Emilio Bonifacio (Rd 24): I don’t love him, but he has potential and I needed another MI guy. Not expecting much more than someone to fill a roster spot and steal some bases.
BN: Will Venable (Rd 25): At this point all you’re looking for is someone who has a good shot at playing time and could contribute. He has some power and not much competition for playing time.
SP: Cole Hamels (Rd 4): Not my ideal choice for an ace, but I don’t hate it either. I wanted Haren in Rd 2, but my computer stopped that from happening. I passed on pitching in Rd 3 because there were a lot of next tier guys still left. Than 5 of the 7 picks before me were pitchers. I was left choosing between Hamels and Gallardo and I chose Hamels. Better lineup and I think last year was an aberration.
SP: Jorge De La Rosa (Rd 8): I like him. Huge strikeout potential and I think the ERA and WHIP will continue to get better. It was him or Oswalt and the potential wins out here.
SP: Aaron Harang (Rd 12): He’s better than those 6 wins last year show. He was very unlucky (.339 BABIP) and his lineup is better this year.
SP: Bud Norris (Rd 13): Could be one of my worst picks just based on the high risk as he is very wild, but the potential sucked me in. Derek Lowe or Randy Wolf would have been safer and maybe smarter.
SP: Brad Penny (Rd 15): I think this is a much safer pick than people might think. He’s back in the NL and while I don’t expect greatness, I think he has very good value at this spot pitching for a very good team. After Norris I wanted a safer pick and I think Penny is safe at this round.
SP: Homer Bailey (Rd 19): The epitome of a post hype sleeper. There is a reason people were so high on him. I don’t think he’ll ever be what people projected, but I do think he’ll be a solid starter.
SP: Clayton Richard (Rd 21): Some potential and I don’t think his risk is very high.
SP: John Lanaan (Rd 23): I actually love this pick. He’s not flashy and he’s not fantastic. You know what you’re going to get and I’ll take it.
RP: Brad Lidge (Rd 11): And my biggest weakness is now exposed. Lidge is my only closer and if you watched him pitch last year you know why I am worried. I just missed on Qualls and Wagner in round 9, both guys I was targeting. At this point it was Lidge, Nunez and Lyon. I don’t think you’ll see a repeat of last year, but I don’t feel safe.
RP: Ryan Madson (Rd 17): Considering I have Lidge and holds is a category in this league, this is another candidate for my favorite pick.
RP: Dan Meyer (Rd 22): I don’t trust Nunez and while I don’t think Meyer is next in line for the closer spot, I do think he’ll vulture some saves because he’s a great leftie. If your using holds like I am lefties are gold.
RP: John Grabow (Rd 26): My final pick. Should have a low ERA, plenty of holds and if you read my primer you know I don’t trust Marmol as closer, at all.
Justin Upton (15th Pick): Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Zimmerman both went in front of him. I think that’s a mistake, the potential is too high here and I really don’t think the floor is as low as others are suggesting.
Johan Santana (35th Pick): He went after Carpenter, Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Tommy Hanson and only one pick in front of where I took Hamels. I know people are worried about him, but this seems a bit drastic to me.
Ryan Ludwick (89th Pick): Big power and big bats around him. That’s a nice combination and he won’t kill your batting average. To give perspective, Raul Ibanez went 52nd, Jay Bruce went 53rd, Chris Coghlan went 68th, Cody Ross went 87th and Lastings Milledge went 92nd. This is a fantastic pick.
Bengie Molina (129th Pick): I don’t buy the Buster Posey hype, not this year. The Giants wouldn’t have brought Molina back if they thought Posey was ready. Molina is one of the most consistent hitters in the game. Other guys taken the same round were Scott Rolen, Luis Castillo and Conor Jackson.
Chris Volstad (213th): Good value at pitching late. Has just as much value in my opinion as Ohlendorf and Gorzellaney who went 40 and 20 picks earlier, respectively.
Tommy Hanson (23rd Pick): I love the upside, but I don’t think he’s done enough to warrant being the 4th pitcher taken in this draft yet.
Jason Heyward (43rd Pick): Same as above, huge potential, but not worth this pick, especially in a non-keeper league. I can’t justify taking him above Manny, McCutchen and Pence.
J.A. Happ (91st Pick): He was good last year, but he was also lucky and he’s not guaranteed a spot in the rotation. He shouldn’t go ahead of Dempster, Latos, Edwin Jackson, Blanton, Strausburg, Lilly and Zambrano.
Gaby Sanchez (182nd Pick): I don’t hate this pick, but 1B is a deep position and I think the fact this team has Daniel Murphy and Gaby Sanchez as their first baseman is a problem.
Jamie Moyer (259th Pick): Can’t complain much about the second to last pick of the draft, but this isn’t the time to take a Jamie Moyer, this is where you take a chance on some potential.
If you have any questions about the draft and where someone went that I didn’t mention let me know. If you have criticisms about my picks or disagreements with my opinions please comment, I love a good healthy fantasy baseball discussion.
If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here.
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