Given his history most people are going into 2010 thinking that it is a foregone conclusion that Curtis Granderson, moving into the new Yankees Stadium, will easily go 20/20, at worst.  In fact, there are some with the belief that he could go 30/30.

I had considered using this as a Wild Prediction, but the truth of the matter is that it isn’t wild enough (meaning I think there’s a better than 20% chance of it happening).  Still, it should make for some good discussion:

Curtis Granderson will not go 20/20 (and not due to injury)

I’m throwing that caveat in there, because I don’t want to get this win because Granderson gets hurt and misses more than 20 games.  I’m making this prediction still assuming he’s going to have 550 AB or more.  Also, note that my actual projection has him at 26 HR and 21 SB.

I don’t believe that the problem is going to come from the power department.  That would be a mistake after seeing what guys like Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon did in the ballparks first season.  It’s the speed where this prediction sits.

He’s only had over 20 SB twice in his career, with the most being 26 back in 2007.  In fact, the most he ever had in his minor league career was 22 at Triple-A in 2005.  Yes, he’s got speed, but that doesn’t mean he’s efficient in using it.

I know, part of the problem was the strategy of the Detroit Tigers, but there’s no guarantee that the Yankees are going to take the reigns off, either.  The Yankees had two players with over 20 stolen bases last season, Derek Jeter (30) and Brett Gardner (26).  Jeter is the leadoff hitter and Gardner has unlimited speed.  Is it that the Yankees just didn’t have that much speed outside of those two?  Possibly.

I just don’t see it is a lock that Granderson reaches 20 SB (and of course, I also have the out if I get lucky and he falls short in the power department).  It’s anything but a foregone conclusion, especially given the stolen base projection I have for him.

What are your thoughts?  Will he go 20/20?  What are the chances he doesn’t?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here.

Previous Wild Predictions:

• Cody Ross will hit 35 HR or more
• Yovani Gallardo will post a WHIP of 1.17 or better
• Mike Pelfrey will strikeout 160 batters or more
• Julio Borbon will steal 70 bases or more
• Billy Butler finishes in the Top 5 in the Majors in RBI with at least 120
• Max Scherzer will post an ERA of 4.75 of worse
• Carlos Quentin will hit at least .310 in 2010
• Shin-Soo Choo will hit .265 or worse in 2010