Wild Prediction: Felipe Paulino’s Strikeouts

Let’s keep these Wild Predictions (things that I predict to happen 20% of the time or less) rolling:

Felipe Paulino will strikeout at least 180 batters

He has a cannon of an arm, averaging 95+ mph on his fastball over 97.2 innings of Major League action last season.  If I knew nothing else about him, that would be enough to encourage me to make this prediction, but there is more.

Over his minor league career he posted a K/9 of 8.3.  In his stint in the Majors last season he was at 8.6.  All he really needs is an opportunity to pitch every five days and he has the skill to get to this type of mark.

His biggest problem could be an innings limit, as he threw just 132.1 innings last season.  Outside of that, why would the Astros not utilize him in the rotation?  Is Brian Moehler really a better option for the team?

I don’t think so.  He’s got the talent and should have opportunity.  That could mean a huge season for the youngster.

If he were to maintain an 8.5 K/9, he would need to throw 190 innings to reach my projection.  If he were able to maintain a higher strikeout level, the innings obviously fall.  So really, is this that far-fetched?

Chance of Happening: 20%

What are your thoughts on Paulino?  Could he reach the level I’ve predicted?  Why or why not?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here.

Previous Wild Predictions:

3 comments

  1. David_C says:

    I wouldn’t recommend this guy in a roto league , the guy seems very combustible like de la rosa..
    His k/9 will be serviceable though

  2. Sawyer says:

    I could see this one happening, but at what cost? Do you have a projection for his ERA and WHIP if he hits the IP and Ks in your wild prediction?

  3. Rotoprofessor says:

    My actual projection for him had him at 150 IP with a 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, so I wouldn’t put them that far off that if he were to reach the innings required.

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