by Will Overton
Every Saturday I do a fantasy baseball stock report where I look at whose stock is up and whose is down in fantasy baseball. To go along with this theme I’m going to also be doing an occasional buy or sell piece. Because it’s not just about whose stock is up, but whether or not you should be buying them, or perhaps if you should be buying someone who’s stock is low.
For this first buy or sell I am going to be looking at a few guys who have had the “over the hill” tag placed on them going into this season, but are working to prove people wrong with their quick starts. Is this just a mirage and their older bodies will soon wear down or have these guys found the fountain of youth? Let’s take a look a closer at three guys who fall into this category.
Vladimir Guerrero: He suffered through an injury riddled season last year that had many people think we’d seen the last of Big Bad Vlad’s glory days. But he is on an absolute tear to start this year, reaching base in all but one game so far and putting together multiple hit games 5 out of 7 times. Now we have if the old Vlad really is back. I think our expectations need to be somewhere in the middle. He has got off to a fantastic start, but he also played his first six games at home against Toronto and Seattle and with the exception of Felix Hernandez he hasn’t seen all that great of pitching yet. Arlington is a hitters park and one that has always been favorable to Guerrero where he has hit .358 the last years combined. So we’ll know more about him after the current road trip which includes trips to New York and Boston. He doesn’t have the power he used to have, but he still has value, unfortunately he’s only eligible at one position and that’s UTIL. He’s probably not a free agent in your league, so if I were you I would wait and see how this road trip goes before I buy or sell. Vladimir Guerrero is a hold.
Edgar Renteria: For my money this guy is one of the most unpredictable players in baseball. Just when you think he’s done here he comes. And he has put together 11 hits and 4 walks in just 5 games so far. So what happened from last year to this year? Well quite honestly I’m not sure anything did. He’s never been a great hitter at AT&T park and he is only 3 for 14 in the 3 games there so far this year. He’s also a hot starter with a batting average over .300 in April the last years, the only month where he has done this. I also don’t think the Giants as a team can maintain their hot start as their currently hitting .291. If you have had Renteria your lucky, but sell now while his value is high because I just don’t think he can sustain this. When it’s all said and done I expect a .270 average with middle 60 – 70 runs and 55 RBI. Not horrible, but not what this hot start indicates. Edgar Renteria is a sell.
Magglio Ordonez: A lot of people drafted Ordonez high last year and a lot of people we’re burned by a very rough start. Those same people don’t realize that he finished the year with a .310 average and hit .381 in the months of August and September. He went through a pretty bad slump, especially for a guy of his caliber, but he found his swing again and he doesn’t seem to have lost it going into this year as he is hitting .387 so far. He’s not the power threat he once was, but his GB/FB last year was the highest of his career and only the second time it’s ever been over 1. He won’t hit you 30 homers, he hasn’t done it since 2002. But he can hit 20 and his value lies in his ability to bat over .300 and drive in 100 runs which I think he can still do. He’s still available in 14% of ESPN leagues and he can still be bought on the cheap if the leagues where he is owned. Magglio Ordonez is a buy.
What about you guys? Are you buying or selling on these guys? Any of you traded or traded for any of the three and have an idea what their value is? Also, I am open to suggestions for future buy or sell pieces so if you have someone you want to see just let me know.