Prior to the season everyone considered Nate McLouth a solid outfield option, yet just six weeks into the year the majority of owners have already jumped off the bandwagon. He’s now owned in 54% of CBS leagues and 40.3% of ESPN leagues. How do so many owners give up on someone so quickly?
Well, a horrific start is a good reason. Just look at this line through Saturday:
103 At Bats
.184 Batting Average (19 Hits)
3 Home Runs
10 RBI
12 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.309 On Base Percentage
.330 Slugging Percentage
.229 Batting Average on Balls in Play
Right off the bat you can see that he’s suffered from some terrible luck thus far. That alone should be enough for owners to stay patient with him, because sooner or later the luck is going to swing the other way.
The other thing, in regards to his average, is his strikeout rate. Just look at his rates since 2008, when he assumed a full-time job:
- 2008 – 15.6%
- 2009 – 19.5%
- 2010 – 30.1%
There’s just no way I can believe his strikeouts are going to take this drastic of a jump. It’s not like he has a terrible eye, as his walk rate has actually increased thus far this season:
- 2008 – 9.5%
- 2009 – 11.5%
- 2010 – 13.5%
He’s just not making contact. It’s a slump, plain and simple, and something that with time, he is going to emerge from. With a drop in strikeouts and an increase in luck (aka BABIP), you can safely assume that his average is going to take a significant jump up in the coming weeks.
The stolen bases haven’t been there, but that can be because of two things. First, he hasn’t been getting on base as much as he has in the past. Second, he’s not hitting at the top of the order anymore. Once he starts hitting, I fully believe the stolen bases will come. I would be surprised if he wasn’t at 15 by year’s end.
The power is there at the same type of rate it’s been at in the past. His HR/FB is at 9.7%, right along the lines of his career mark of 10.9%. His flyball rate has also been consistent, at 43.7% for ’10 vs. 44.2% for his career. In other words, there’s no real surprise here.
The moral of this story? Don’t give up on McLouth. It really is that simply. I’m shocked that I’ve seen him dropped in multiple five-outfielder formats and have happily snatched him up for my teams. I recommend you do the same thing, because it’s only a matter of time before the hits start coming and the stats improve significantly.
What are your thoughts? Is McLouth someone you have given up on already? Is he someone you’re staying patient with?
To view the previous article, click here.
I had dropped him a little while back in a 5-OF lineup as I had fallen to dead last in the standings. The longer I’d wait for him to pick it up, the further I was falling behind in counting stats like runs and RBI’s. I already had Ellsbury on the DL so I have really been hurting in the OF. I’d picked up a few different OF’s in Kearns, Fred Lewis, and Brennan Boesch who’ve helped me pick up about 8 points in the standings. I picked him back up again this morning as he’s played much better in his last several games than he was earlier in the year. Hopefully the improved play will stick around and he’ll be up further in the standings.
Send Phillips and Gallardo For Kemp in 16 team h2h dyansty?
I already have kinsler and Utley on my roster. My staff is not that strong though but it will still have:
Kershaw, Garcia, Blanton, Morrow, CJ Wilson, Leake, Buchochlz, Volquez, Webb and Zimmerman.
My thinking is that having a beast offense will allow me to win 5 categories a week and still have a decent shot at K’s and W’s and SV’s.
What do you think kind sirs?
Would hold onto him if I had him, but would not trade for or add him though unless I am giving up very less. Also I’ve been wondering if Javier Vazquez is worth acquiring right now.
Vince, as always, it would depend on what you have to give up. If you can get him cheap, he’s absolutely worth acquiring.
big al, well, you certainly don’t need Phillips and Kemp has the potential to be a huge boost to your team. While losing Gallardo will certainly hurt, you have an opportunity to acquire a first round pick and in a 16-team league, that’s certainly going to help.
While you may be giving up a lot, not knowing the rest of your team, I think it’s a deal I would make. Kemp has the ability to carry your team in any given week and it’s tough to turn down the chance to get that type of talent.
What does everyone else think?
Thanks rotoproffesor I really respect your opinion and love your articles
The rest of my offense is:
Wieters
Gonzo
Utley
Tulowitzki
Reynolds
J Upton
Ellsbury
Braun
Kinsler
Quetin
Aviles
Bench:
D Murphy
Fowler
With that offense I usually win 5 categories already, but then again Kemp will really put me over the top. I like Gallardo a lot also haha. Am I just paranoid about my offense?
As another guy who plays in a 16 team dynasty league, I don’t know if I would do that. If you needed offense I would certinaly jump on that, but you have a STACKED offense for a 16 team league and pitching is premium in these leagues, I am finding out the hard way right now where I win every hitting category, but am struggling to win pitching.
I’d keep Gallardo and try and trade Phillips for another pitcher to be honest.
Haven’t really thought of who to offer for Vazquez, what do you think he is worth right now and was also offered aaron hill and span for zobrist and pierre. I have zobrist and pierre right now. Both Zobrist and Hill are struggling, especially Hill. Zobrist plays in a better lineup but has not hit a HR yet. and Span provides some of everything but does will not steal as much as pierre. I’m fine with either combos, but which ones better.
big al, now that I see your entire offense, I agree with Will 100%. You are stacked there, especially for a 16-team league. Getting Kemp is overkill and likely not needed. I’d use Phillips to try and get a pitcher, but there really is no need to trade one of your top two pitchers to add to an already stacked offense.
Vince, it’s tough to say what he’s worth. I’ve seen him go for the following players, which I wouldn’t disagree with:
- Austin Jackson (selling high on him)
- J.D. Drew
- Travis Hafner
Basically, I wouldn’t give up much, but a borderline usable player for him would make sense.
Seriously, don’t even bother picking him up. I had him in both of my leagues from the beginning of the season before I dropped him recently. Braves don’t have confidence or trust in him. They are just hopping that he can be successful at least in the platoon against RHP.