Assessing The Value Of Drew Stubbs

by Will Overton

Drew Stubbs was a rather trendy sleeper for the outfield going into the season and was selected in many standard leagues. He had a horrendous April batting .186 with no power (only 3 XBH). The only thing he did provide was some speed getting seven steals for the month. Dropped in virtually every league Stubbs, quickly went from sleeper to off the radar.

However Stubbs was moved from leadoff to seventh in the lineup after the tough April and seemed to loosen up and find his swing as he put up the follow numbers in the month of May:

.273 Batting Average
.339 On Base Percentage
.525 Slugging Percentage
14 Runs Scored
5 Home Runs
18 Runs Batted In
4 Stolen Bases

After a horrible April and a bounce back May, the question now becomes: Where does Drew Stubbs finish the year and what kind of kinds of leagues should he be owned in? Apparently owners weren’t buying into the big month of May as he is only owned in 37.5% of ESPN leagues and 24% of Yahoo leagues. I have to assume that these low numbers come as a result of April and people being a little bit shy to believe in Stubbs again. Let’s take a look at what to expect from Stubbs from this point forward.

Stubbs minor league numbers reflect a fast guy with a mediocre batting average (.269 for his minor league career) and unrealized potential to hit for power with his 6’4 205 pound frame. Stubbs had 12 home runs in 2007 at Class A ball, but didn’t reach double digits in 2008 or even come close to it in 2009 before being called up. Oddly enough, as soon as Stubbs was called up the power seemed to appear a bit more as he now has 14 HRs in 409 career major league at-bats. Now Stubbs isn’t going to hit 40 HRs any time soon, but the potential to hit in the 15 – 20 range this year seems to be there. The HR/FB rate since his call up is 11.2% which is high, but not an extreme number. It only makes sense that as he adds bulk to the 6’4″ frame that more power will come.

The move from the leadoff position hurt some of Stubbs ability to score runs, but it does increase his chance for driving them in hitting behind the likes of Votto, Phillips and Bruce. The average is something that you shouldn’t expect a huge boom in. The .243 average he has now is a result of that first month, but it also took a .338 BABIP in the month of May for him to get .273. Throughout the minors he hovered around the high .260s and low .270s and you shouldn’t expect much more than that out of him this year. He has a .305 BABIP for the year which is slightly below the league average and with that he should be able to get to around the .260 mark.

However the power and the RBI are perks to go with the impressive speed Stubbs possesses. He stole 121 bases in four years in the minor leagues and last year between AAA and the major leagues he stole 56. He’ll probably never reach that mark against big league pitchers and catchers, but the 12 he has so far this year seems a bit on the low end of things. He hasn’t been given a ton of opportunities, but I assume if he keeps getting on base he’s going to get the green light more and more, especially in a run friendly spot in the lineup where managers are looking to make something happen. He should reach 30 steals and if you couple that with 15 HR, that’s pretty good for a guy who is only going to get better.

Outfield is a weak position and that makes someone with Stubbs upside a must own in all deep league formats. As far as standard leagues go, let’s think. In most standard leagues there are between 50 – 60 OFs owned so the question becomes, is Drew Stubbs one of the 50 – 60 best OF this year. I think he is right on the border, a must own in keeper formats and a fringe guy in all other formats where I think the potential carries him over a lot of others.

Some of the guys owned in more leagues who I’d drop for Stubbs are: Marlon Byrd, Jonny Gomes, J.D Drew, Nyjer Morgan, Angel Pagan, Lastings Milledge and Garrett Jones.

So in my opinion Stubbs is ownable in all leagues and a must own in anything outside of a standard format. What are your thoughts on him? Is he available in one of your leagues? Do you personally own him on any teams and if so how much value does he have for you?

To read the previous article, click here.

6 comments

  1. GT says:

    Right now, Stubbs’ value is tied to his place in the batting order. At the top, he stinks, at the bottom (7th) he rakes.

  2. Frank Kim says:

    Lastings Milledge? Really? I would be interested in hearing why you’d rather own him.

  3. will.overton says:

    I would rather have Stubbs than Milledge.

    Milledge has the more ideal lineup spot, but Stubbs has the better hitters around him which offsets that.

    Stubbs has the advantage in power, is close or just as good in average and while their speed is the same right now Milledge isn’t running much, maybe because he is batting third. I just think right now Stubbs helps in every catgeory more than Milledge or at least just as much.

  4. jb says:

    I like stubbs and own him. I believe he is a 20hr 30 sb Guy this year who will hit around 260. I think he has a chance at being a 20 HR 40 sb Guy. He is right now rated 82 in the ESPN player rater universe. He also scores runs even though batting average is low. Very underrated. I see him as a Chris young type of player. If his power continues to develop he may end up being a 30-30 Guy in the future. In keeper leagues he is must own.

  5. Will says:

    Completely agree with you JB. Not sure if he has 30 homerun potential, but he could, definetly see him 20 in the next year or two and stealing 30 on a regular basis. Hitting 7th is hurting his run scoring some, but its being offset by the fact that he is driving in more runs than he would from a leadoff spot.

  6. Frank Kim says:

    Hi Will,

    Thanks for replying to my previous question. I actually misread your post and thought you were saying you would rather have Milledge more than Stubbs. Interesting that you’d rather have Stubbs than say Garrett Jones with his good power, decent speed, and good RBI’s or Jonny Gones who is so hot.

    Stubbs is puzzling to me. I dropped him because he was killing me in April. Of course then he got hot in May for another team.

    What’s strange is that his best month for runs and steals was when he was hitting .186 in April.

    I was offered Stubbs for Posey. I already have Mauer so I’m not sure. What do you think? My other corners (where Posey is playing now) are Pedro Alvarez and Daric Barton. My outfield is pretty crowded and Stubbs would be replacing Hawpe and that’s questionable.

    My team is here in case you’re interested. :-)
    http://games.espn.go.com/flb/clubhouse?leagueId=105368&teamId=16

    -Frank

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