Rotoprofessor

by Will Overton

Here is your week 10 fantasy stock report as we take a look at some of the risers and fallers in the fantasy baseball stock market and what you should do with them if you have them or want them.

Whose Stock Is Up:

Marlon Byrd (15 – 29, 8 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI): He got off to a red hot start to the year and was owned in every league by the end of April. Then he hit some struggles during the month of May slumping pretty hard at points and started getting dropped in leagues. And now in the last week he’s been added again and is closing in on 100% ownership once more. He’s got solid pop, a little speed and he’s been scoring runs. He’s a solid 4^th or 5^th outfielder in leagues that use as many. He is streaky so you may want someone decent to plug in when he hits a cold spell, but don’t make the mistake a bunch of others did last month and drop him during one of those streaks.

Austin Kearns (10 – 25, 8 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB): Austin Kearns is having a solid year so far in Cleveland and has earned himself a spot on deep league teams, but is this all a fluke or can he maintain this kind of season? His BABIP is over .400 and so you have to think the average is going to dip down, probably a good 20 – 30 points, the power numbers are legitimate and he is capable of 20 HR’s and 80 RBI. As for the speed, don’t expect too much more. His spot is in deep leagues and possibly a fringe guy in standard leagues.

Erick Aybar (15 – 31, 7 R, 5 RBI, 1 SB): He’s a steady three category contributor who kind of flies under the radar a bit. He was a top 100 prospect all through his minor league career. He has elite speed with the potential for 40 steals, he just has to become a smarter base runner and refine his approach to avoid getting caught as much as he does. He’s one of the top run scoring shortstops and as the Angels heat up, so will he. Available in about 25% of leagues I think his upside pushes him ahead of guys like Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro and Alex Gonzalez who are all owned in more leagues.

Carlos Pena (9 – 24, 9 R, 6 HR, 9 RBI): We knew it was only a matter of time before he went on a homer run like this one. Pena has elite raw power that very few people possess. Unfortunately despite this hot streak his batting average is below .200 and he is still striking out a ton as is the usual for him. The good news is his BABIP is currently .206 and his career average is .283 so the average should keep going up, the bad news is he’s still a career .244 hitter who will always strikeout a lot. If you need power he will probably still come cheap despite this streak just cause of the average and strikeouts, but be prepared to take a hit to your BA. If you have guys to carry his poor average or your already to far behind to catch up in that category than he might be a guy to target.

Josh Hamilton (9 – 24, 5 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI): The Josh Hamilton of 2009 seems to be gone and the Josh Hamilton of 2008 is back, or at least close to it. He’s hitting for power and he’s hitting for average and most importantly, he’s hitting with runners on at .358. That’s currently 40 points higher than 2008 when he knocked in more runs than anyone else in baseball. He’s not even being mentioned in the conversation with the top outfielders, but he’s on pace for 30 HR’s and 110 RBI, he’s one of the top outfield options.

Whose Stock Is Down:

Starlin Castro (4 – 25, 1 R, 1 RBI): This 20 year old came into the big leagues with a big debut and caught everyone’s attention doing it. Unfortunately he doesn’t have a history of power and he’s not stealing bases right now. He has a big future and will be a .300 hitter with 30 steals and 10 – 15 homeruns, and probably within a couple years, but if you’re not in a keeper league or a deep league, he’s probably not a guy you need to own right now.

Jose Bautista (0 – 19, 1 R): Bautista already has a career high in homeruns and its only June, so I think we all knew a slump like this was coming. Bautista has power, but he’s never had the kind of power that we’ve seen this year and I’m not sure he can sustain it. His homerun per fly ball rate is twice his career rate right now and he’s getting the ball in the air a lot more than usual as well. It’s been great to have the power he’s brought, but I think if you can sell him high it’s in your best interest. The average is going to hurt you and I don’t think he maintain the power, or close to it.

Adam Laroche (3 – 23, 3 RBI): He’s basically doing what he’s done for the past few years and nothing more. He’s struggling right now, but Laroche is consistently a solid, but not spectacular player and this year should provide more of the same. He’s a bit under his career average and it should get a little bit better as his .323 BABIP should lead to a higher average than the .245. He’s really a fringe guy in standard leagues, but he’s a consistent enough performer to own in anything deeper.

Jason Bay (1 – 20, 1 R): I don’t think anyone who drafted Bay expected to get the most contribution from him in steals and runs scored, but that’s what’s happening. We all assumed his power numbers would take a hit going to Cit Field, but only homering in 2 games so far is a bit ridiculous and he’s not driving people in either as he is hitting .227 with runners in scoring position. You don’t really want to drop Bay cause it seems inevitable that he’s going to turn it around, but right now he’s not better than a 3^rd or 4^th outfielder.

Adam Lind (3 – 22, 1 R, 1 RBI): Lind is struggling and struggling hard right now, especially against lefties which he is hitting .109 against, there’s no way he can keep playing against left handers if that keeps up. But keep in mind he does have a .248 BABIP and a 8.1% HR/FB ratio which shows that he’s been a bit unlucky and the numbers should be improving, hopefully sooner than later for his owners. I doubt your going to get much in return for him at this point, so your best bet is to hold tight and wait for the turn around.

What does everyone else think about guys like Lind and Bay? What are you doing with guys you drafted so high who are producing the way they are? What about some of the hotter hitters, anyone you’re buying into? Let’s hear your feedback.

To view the previous article, click here.