Scouting Report: Is Brett Myers A Second Half Bust?

Brett Myers has been a huge surprise for fantasy owners, producing like he did in 2005 and 2006.  While the strikeouts aren’t quite at that level, it’s hard to argue against the rest of his numbers:

7 Wins
129.0 Innings
3.35 ERA
1.28 WHIP
93 Strikeouts (6.5 K/9)
39 Walks (2.7 BB/9)
.298 BABIP

At his best, Myers was posting strikeout rates near 9.0.  He’s shown flashes of that ability, at times, in 2010, but not since June 1 (when he struck out 10 over seven innings).  He hasn’t struck out more then six in a start since then, and he did that just once on June 6.

Still, he’s posting more then enough there to consider him usable.

He’s always has had excellent control, with a career BB/9 of 3.1.  Couple that with a realistic BABIP and there is no reason to think that his solid WHIP can’t continue.  Granted, he could regress a little bit, but I wouldn’t expect the falloff to be anything dramatic.

Where he has excelled this year is in his home runs allowed.  Currently he has a HR/9 of 0.8, compared to his career mark of 1.3.  Considering the hitter’s haven he calls home, that has to come as a surprise.

It’s not the fly ball rate, which is at 32.8% compared to his career mark of 32.3% (since 2002).  Where he has improved is the HR/FB, currently at 8.3%.  Just look at his marks over the previous five seasons:

  • 2005 – 16.8%
  • 2006 – 14.3%
  • 2007 – 14.5%
  • 2008 – 15.6%
  • 2009 – 23.4%

Yes, he spent some time in the bullpen and missed time due to injuries, but it is hard to argue with results.  You have to think that the numbers are going to regress, especially when you look at his home/road splits:

  • Home – 2.48 ERA, 2 HR over 61.2 innings
  • Road – 4.14 ERA, 9 HR over 67.1 innings

Of course, we also have to factor in the trade rumors.  If he were to end up somewhere like New York, with CitiField as his home, the worries about the home runs would dissipate some.  Until that happens, however, there has to be some concern.  It’s just hard to imagine him remaining so lucky at home.

The bottom line is that Myers should remain a usable option in all formats.  He hasn’t been overly lucky (throw in a 73.0% strand rate for further proof), outside of the luck in keeping the ball in the ballpark at home.  With the deadline approaching, if he were to get traded to a more favorable ballpark and a better team, he’d look even more appealing.

As it is, just keep a hold on him and continue to reap some benefits as he should continue to post usable numbers as a back end starter.

What are your thoughts on Myers?  Will he remain usable all year long?  Would you cut bait on him?

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