Rotoprofessor

Today, let’s continue the article I started last week (click here to view my discussion on the 2009 First Round and if Jimmy Rollins should be included) and discuss if Johan Santana and Prince Fielder are worth first round consideration in 2009. 

Prince Fielder

He may be one of the most disappointing performers in all of baseball this season.  After hitting 50 HR with a .288 average in 2007, people expected him to put up at least similar numbers in 2008, but that certainly has not even been close to the case.  The average is acceptable at .263, but sitting with just 29 HR at this point this season it can be seen as nothing more than a major setback.

His biggest month this season was 8 in June and he only hit 4 a piece in April and May.  He did have a terrible month of July last season, where he hit just 3 HR, but he also had months of 13, 9 and 11, so it more then made up for it.

The 2008 numbers look like they could be right in line with his 2006 season, when he hit .271 with 28 HR.  Those are obviously not numbers that warrant first round consideration and if that is the player he is going to be then he obviously does not belong being taken so early.

Point to whatever you want for his decreased power supply, if it is the fact that he is now a vegetarian or that 2007 was a fluke or whatever else you want to throw in there, there certainly is a lot of risk surrounding selecting him early on in any draft.  While it is possible that he bounces back and supplies 40+ HR power again in 2009, I’m not willing to gamble with such an important pick and would recommend you doing the same.

If I’m going to pick a player in the first round, I want to know for a fact that he is going to help me extensively in at least one category, or at least be above average across the board.  You do not get that in Fielder at all.  He has proven that he is never going to give you a great average, even though he is not going to hurt you.  He also provides little speed, so SB just aren’t going to be there and who knows how many times he’s going to be able to round the bases.  Yes, he did score 109 last season but had just 82 in ‘06 and is on pace for a similar number this year.

If he was a lock to hit 45 HR, then this discussion would be extremely different.  Unfortunately, I just don’t believe that at this point making him an impossible pick in the first round.

Johan Santana

A lot of people would tell you that he shouldn’t have even been a first round pick last season, though that’s a completely different argument.  A lot of people also would tell you that his first season with the Mets has been a bitter disappointment, which is something that I just could not disagree with more.  Yes, just looking at the record, which is 13-7, you could reach that conclusion, but you just wouldn’t be looking at all the relevant information.

He has a 2.70 ERA over 210.1 innings pitched.  The ERA is actually good enough to be #2 in the NL, trailing just Tim Lincecum at this point.  He’s also second in the NL in innings pitched, so those who want to classify him as a pitcher incapable of going deep into games have got to think again.

The WHIP is also very good, sitting at 1.16.  He has 179 strikeouts, obviously not league leader type production, but that is certainly a useful strikeout total.  Still, when you drafted him in the first round you were hoping to get the player who has struck out 235 or more over the past 4 seasons.  The fact that it appears like an outside chance that he is going to reach 200 this season hurts his value tremendously.

In fact, his K/9 innings right now is sitting at 7.75.  This is the same guy who posted a ratio of 10.46 in 2004 and was even at 9.66 last season.  Moving to the NL you would have expected him to be able to keep the number consistent, if not even improve on it. 

I’m not going to say that Santana should not be a very early round draft choice, because I fully believe that he should be.  A first round selection however?  I just don’t think he should.  In fact, I’m not sure that he should be the first pitcher off the board in all formats, not with the emergence of guys like Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum and others (though, this is clearly a whole different article).

I would love to have Santana and think that he is due for a monster campaign next season.  I just wouldn’t be willing to gamble my first round pick on it.