The Philadelphia Phillies have acquired Roy Oswalt and cash in exchange for J.A. Happ, Anthony Goss and Jonathan Villar according to MLB Network.
The Phillies Get
They create the type of 1-2 combo they could have had, except that they opted not to keep Cliff Lee once the acquired Roy Halladay in the offseason. With most pitchers you would be concerned with the move to a hitters ballpark, but it is not like Oswalt has called a pitcher’s paradise home in recent years. He has been better on the road (2.68 ERA) this year, but there is nothing to complain about his 3.96 ERA at home.
It’s not like he is an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.0% in ’10 and 31.9% for his career) or gives up a lot of home runs (0.91 HR/9 in ’10 and 0.78 for his career). That should translate to Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, you would think.
He hasn’t been overly lucky in ’10, with a .283 BABIP and 73.3% strand rate. His control has always been a strength.
The one concern may be his strikeout rate. He currently has a K/9 of 8.4. That’s a full strikeout better then his career mark. In fact, since 2005 he’s only had a K/9 above 7.0 once (7.1 in 2008). If he were to regress there, his WHIP and ERA would likely suffer slightly, because he would give up more hits (assuming his BABIP remains consistent). Yes, it’s a slight concern, but not enough. He actually only had one big strikeout month this season (44 K in 38.1 IP in May).
He’s going to continue to be an above average pitcher, now with the ability to win games. It’s a big boost in his fantasy appeal.
The Astros Get
Happ had great numbers in 2009 (12 W, 2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP), but he also benefited from an 85.2% strand rate, so his ERA is a bit deceiving.
Like Oswalt, the ballpark will not be a factor, but he goes into a far worse situation to get Ws. That’s a huge hit on his value, as was his less then stellar numbers during his rehab (5.97 ERA). Then again, he’s shown more strikeout potential in the minor leagues (9.3 K/9 over 528.0 innings prior to ‘10), so you would expect the lefties 6.6 K/9 in the majors to improve with experience.
He’s got value in deeper formats, but is not likely to be a must start in ’10. He projects more as a pitcher with a high-3s/low-4s ERA for the rest of the year, so don’t expect much more then that.
Gose is an outfielder who was ranked as the Phillies sixth best prospect prior to season by Baseball America. He is best known for his defense and his speed. He had 76 SB in 96 attempts last season, but has struggled slightly this year. He has 36 SB, but has been caught 27 times at High Single-A. He also needs to improve his ability to make contact, having struck out 103 times in 418 AB thus far this season.
Villar is another speed guy, though as a shortstop. He’s hitting .272 with 2 HR and 38 SB at Single-A this season, though he too struggles with strikeouts (103 in 371 AB).
Neither prospect is close to making an impact.
What are your thoughts on the deal? How is Oswalt’s value affected? What about Happ’s?
Make sure to check out our trade deadline analysis:
- Yunel Escober for Alex Gonzalez
- Alberto Callaspo traded to the Angels
- Dan Haren traded to the Angels
- Jhonny Peralta to the Tigers
- Scott Podsednik to the Dodgers