First base is as deep of a position as any in baseball, though there are injury concerns hanging over a few of the best options in the game. Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales and Justin Morneau all have questions due to various injuries. How does that affect the rankings? Let’s take a look at how we currently stand:
- Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
- Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
- Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
- Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
- Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
- Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies
- Adrian Gonzalez – San Diego Padres
- Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
- Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels
- Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins
- Adam Dunn – Washington Nationals
- Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
- Victor Martinez – Boston Red Sox
- Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox
- Ike Davis – New York Mets
Thoughts:
- Kevin Youkils vs. Adrian Gonzalez could be one of the most hotly debated ranking on this list. I’m going to go more in-depth on this debate later in the offseason, but it’s important to note that Gonzalez’ 2009 season is now looking like the outlier. He posted a .551 slugging percentage in ’09. The other four seasons since 2006 has seen him post marks of .500, .502, .510 and .511. The prior three seasons for Kevin Youkilis have been .569, .548 and .564, while he also is in a better position to score runs. Of course, Youkilis appears to be prone to injury, having not had more then 538 AB (145 games) since 2006. Over the past two years, he hasn’t played more then 136 games. That is the deciding factor, for now.
- Justin Morneau is a real wild card at this point, coming off his 2010 concussion problems. He should still be a worthwhile option, but don’t reach too far for him.
- For as good of a bargain Paul Konerko was in 2010, I fear that owners are going to reach too high for him in 2011 and get burned. He is a free agent, so where he ultimately lands will have an impact on his value, but he’s unlikely to match his 2010 line.
- Billy Butler at #12? I know, maybe I’m stubborn, but I still have hope that he can turn things around and produce like we all believe he’s capable. I’m sure that’s one spot on these rankings that I may have to readjust later on, however.
- I can’t downgrade Mark Teixeira based on his .268 BABIP. Look for him to come back strong in 2011.
- The final spot in the rankings is wide open at this point. Veteran like Aubrey Huff and Adam LaRoche are also in the mix. We’ll have it nailed down by the time drafts roll around.
What are your thoughts on these rankings? Whose too high? Whose too low?
Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:
ready for one of my wild predictions??????
justin smoak will crack this list by june
If he had stayed in Texas maybe but certainly not in Seattle
I like Butler — All he needs is power, which he displayed at the end of the year. I would put him ahead of Dunn.
Morneau behind Morales — I don’t get that one. Morneau was having an MVP season before the concussion. If he’s over the problem, he’s back to the #5 spot for me.
And I’ll second carlito’s prediction. Ike Davis is good, but Smoak could be better. Since both guys are immediately replaceable on waivers, I might sneak Smoak in the #15 spot purely based on upside.
I knew Votto would climb the charts!
Take a look at Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera’s stats from last year. Man, just about identical!
Except Votto can consistently steal 15 bases which is why i see him right behind Pujols for the top 1st baseman.
in what league will victor martinez be playing first base?
FYI: Buster Posey may have 1B eligibility
Steve – V-Mart will have eligibility there, so that is why he’s on the list. Is he a much better play as a catcher? Absolutely, which is why he’ll be drafted where he will.
Marco – That is an excellent call. He did play 30 games at 1B, so he does have eligibility at 1B, but, like V-Mart, his value comes more as a catcher then a 1B. If he were to crack my Top 15 1B, it would be at 14 or 15, at best.
I am in a mixed league keeper with more rules than I can list.
I have Konerko at $9. I think even with a dropoff that I expect he is a keeper at $9.
Obviously depends on who else I have on my roster but in a vacuum? Thoughts?
Spartacus, sorry I missed you! Yea, a lot of it depends on the rules so it’s kind of hard to say. I think $9 is probably a fair price for him, so it would really depend on numerous other factors if he is worth keeping or not.
Do you think Freddie Freeman will get PT with the Braves this year? And if so, any projections?
Freddie is the Braves 1b now and in the future. Expect 140 games played with a line like this; 78-23-81-1-.281
As of right now, yea, Freeman should be penciled in as the Braves 1B, but there’s a lot of offseason left to decide that. As we get closer, I will certainly give my projections on him if he’s going to start, but let’s not jump the gun.
I would love to see these rankings for leagues that use OBP instead of AVG. I know it’s not a huge change, but that would be great professor.
Pretty good list, can’t complain.
My top 10:
Pujols
Cabrera
Teix
Votto
Gonzalez
Youk
Morneau
Howard
Fielder
Morales
Adrian Gonzales moves up dramatically since he was finally dealt from SD to Boston which is about as good as it gets for any fantasy player who grabs him.
Dunn hitting 3d or 4th in Baltimore. Yowsa. Behind Morales, Morneau, and even RyHo, is a stretch. 45-50 h.r.’s w/in reach for this most consistent slugger. Watch out for Ike Davis. can easily hit as many as Morales.