At this point with Gallardo it has gotten to the point that I feel obligated to make this type of prediction because I figure the year I don’t will be the year he finally puts it all together. Call it superstition or call it something else (stupidity maybe), but such is life!
Enough Rotoprofessor bashing for one day, let’s look at today’s prediction (remember, a wild prediction is something that is expected to happen 20% of the time or less):
Yovani Gallardo will post a WHIP of 1.20 or better
When you look at his marks the past two years (1.31 and 1.37) it would appear like this prediction is a pipe dream. However, when you look at the skills he brings to the table you realize that there certainly is the potential for him to excel.
When you can strike batters out you are less reliant on luck. Over the past two seasons he has 404 strikeouts over 370.2 innings. Needless to say, that’s a big-time rate.
Unfortunately luck was not necessarily on his side in 2010 as he posted a BABIP of .324. Obviously that is a below average mark and one that we would expect him to improve upon. That alone could go a long way in his WHIP improving tremendously.
His walk rate is also on the decline. After missing the majority of the 2008 season Gallardo returned in 2009 and posted a BB/9 of 4.56. It’s not surprising to see pitchers struggle with their control the first year back so it certainly was encouraging to see him improve that mark to 3.65 in 2010. Over his minor league career he posted a BB/9 of 3.25 over nearly 400 innings, so there still is room for more improvement.
You put those things together (strikeout rate, improved BABIP and improved walk rate) and there is plenty of reason to think that Gallardo is going to significantly improve on his ’10 WHIP. At 25-years old, would it really be surprising if he finally put things all together?
I know his second half regression is a concern, but prior to the All-Star Break he actually had a WHIP of 1.27. If he can put it all together for an entire season and take the next step, this prediction may not be as wild as one would think.
Chance of Happening: 15%
What are your thoughts? Is there any way Gallardo posts this type of WHIP? Why or why not?
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Make sure to check out our previous Wild Predictions:
- Jay Bruce & Colby Rasmus Will Combine For At Least 65 HR
- Jayson Werth will have less than 160 runs scored and RBI combined
- Ryan Zimmerman will outperform Evan Longoria in 2011
- James Shields will post a sub-3.40 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP
- Austin Jackson will struggle so badly that by June 15 that he will have spent time at Triple-A
- Matt LaPorta will hit at least 30 HR in 2011
- Brett Anderson will be a Top 3 AL-Only fantasy pitcher in 2011