by Marshall Bauer
Second base is as deep as it has been for some time, but it seems like everyone after Cano has their fair share of question marks. Martin Prado is usually ranked in the bottom half of the top ten as he’s viewed as lacking that elite potential, which leads to my wild prediction.
Martin Prado will be a top 3 fantasy second baseman in 2011.
Prado was considered by most to be a career utility player entering 2010 when the Braves gave him a chance to be their everyday second baseman after they didn’t tender Kelly Johnson. Prado rewarded the Braves with an All Star campaign, and rewarded fantasy owners by batting .325 with 10 homers and 4 stolen bases before the all star break. He battled injuries (broken pinkie, hip pointer, and torn oblique) in the second half to limp to the finish hitting only .278 with 5 home runs and 1 stolen base after the break.
In order for Prado to finish as a top 3 second baseman, he will have to outperform all but 2 of the like: Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Bradon Phillips, and Dan Uggla, as well as bounce back candidates: Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, and Gordon Beckham, among others.
So what can we expect from Prado? Martin has been a career .307 hitter, with an above average contact rate. He managed 15 home runs last year in 599 at bats over 140 games in 2010, after he hit 11 in 450 at bats over 128 games in 2009. Prado does not offer much in the way of speed though, never stealing more than 5 bases in his career, minor leagues included. He did score 100 runs along with 66 RBIs in 2010, and should be able to at least duplicate that given the offensive upgrades that the Braves have made in addition to the young stars in that lineup progressing.
So what makes me think Prado could finish among the top 3 second basemen? I’m expecting for Prado to hit a lot like his first half last year before the injuries hit. Meaning home runs in the upper teens maybe even reaching 20, an average around .315, and hitting at the top of the Braves lineup 100 runs should be easy to go along with a handful of stolen bases and around 65-70 runs batted in.
So, do those numbers equate to a top three second baseman? Well, Prado finished fifth on the ESPN player rater in 2010 with a line of .307/100/15/66/5, so I expect for numbers of .315/105/18/70/5 to be enough to get him into the top 3, and with the numbers put up by second basemen in 2010 it would have been.
It won’t be easy, but if it was, how could I call it a “wild prediction”. Prado showed what he can do in the first half of 2010, and if he can come close to replicating those numbers he very well could do it.
Chances of Happening: 10%
What do you think of Prado in 2011? Does he finish as an elite option or will he finish around the spot where he’s being drafted at of 8th among second basemen?
In order for Prado to enter this top tier of 2B’s he is going to need to go a lot more than just what you have proposed above.
Assuming full health for all 2Bs, let’s look at the projected stats (roughly) for each of his competitors and where Prado stacks up…
HR: Uggla (30+), Utley/Cano/Kinsler (~25), Pedroia/Zobrist (15+), Prado (~15)
RBI: Uggla/Cano/Utley (~100), Kinsler/Zobrist (80+), Pedroia/Prado (~75)
Runs: Pedroia/Utley/Cano (~110), Prado/Kinsler/Uggla (~100), Zobrist (~85)
SB: Kinsler (25+), Utley/Pedroia/Zobrist (~20), Cano/Uggla/Prado (~5)
Avg: Cano (.310+), Prado/Pedroia (.300+), Utley/Kinsler (~.280), Zobrist/Uggla (~.265)
Prado has the lowest potential for HR, RBI and SB, is in the middle of the pack for Runs, and is a top-tier option for Avg.
It would appear that in order to crack the Top 3, Prado is going to need at least 20+ HR because he will not get any SBs, and he will need to bump his average up to where Cano’s is. Furthermore, he is going to need to get at least 80 to 85 RBI – a very tough task batting at the top of an NL lineup.
Looking at it like this (again, assuming full health for all), Prado is almost guaranteed to not beat out Cano (if he maintains his .315 avg and 20+ HR) or Kinsler (if he can still be a 25/25 guy). There is no way he can match either of their stats. That means that Utley will need to continue to decline, Pedroia gets less HR and RBI than Prado, and Zobrist continues his struggles from 2010 (and hope that Brandon Phillips and Aaron Hill don’t jump off either).
I think the chances might even be lower than 10%…..
I like Prado as a decent guy to target late if you miss out on top guys.
Based on his first half numbers and the pinkie injury he could be a Top 3 guy at 2B. The problem with Prado is the same as Cano: over reliance AVG with little speed. If either of those guys have a low BABIP they become middle of the road guys at 2nd. I think Utley will be the #1 rated 2B in 2011 because he can do it all and he has to stay healthy one of these years, doesn’t he?
Dave Law,
I wouldn’t necessarily say that Cano is as reliant on a high average as Prado is. Granted, when Cano has a lower average, then he does fall out of the top 3, but he still remains a Top 5 option, unlike Prado he would fall into the lower half of the Top 10.
Your comment about BABIP, while being correct, does not really have the same affect for both players. For instance, in 2008 Prado had a career best BABIP of .357, which earned him a .320 Batting Avg. In 2006, Cano had a BABIP of .359 which earned him a .342 batting avg. Why the huge difference in Batting Averages? Because Prado only had 2 HRs (114 AB/HR) whereas Cano had 15 HRs (32.1 AB/HR).
In 2007, Prado had a Batting Avg of .288 with a .321 BABIP. In 2009 Cano had a similar BABIP of .324 but his average was .320. Again this huge difference coming because of Cano’s power numbers: 25 HRs (25.5 AB/HR).
While Cano and Prado are similar players, Cano has a huge advantage in the power department. Meaning that he has much more of a margin of error when it comes to things like batting average – not to mention that he is guaranteed to get more RBI because of the lineup that he hits in.
Prado is overrated imo…
His upside is 12-15 hr’s with minimal rbi’s and no steals
he’s more of a roto option i guess…
I’d rather wait and take a chance with Aaron hill
Huh? Prado is no where near overrated. More like underrated. This guy comes every single game and busts his ass. He works harder than any one. Obviously you need to read up on some articles on this guy and watch footage of him.
And what the hell do you expect from a guy that leads off games? To hit 80-90 RBI? 60-70 RBI from a lead off hitter that doesn’t even steal bases is pretty good IMO.
Bad thing is, I’m not even a Braves fan and I can see the bright side of him.
I don’t really see how Prado is OVER-rated, unless he was going in the top 50 picks. Right now his ADP at MDC is pick #74. For a potential top 5 2B, that sounds good to me.
Last year with the injury-plagued second half he was ranked #76 overall in 5×5 leagues. I think his upside is more like 20 HR. His HR/FB is rising from 8% in ’09 to 10% in ’10, it would not be surprising to see it rise to league average of 12% in 2011. At his age of 27, power is still developing, it would not be surprising to see him take another step in this department.