When I posted my outfield rankings this morning (click here to view) I had the Texas Rangers’ Nelson Cruz ranked at #14. Overall I have him ranked at #55. However, when you look at Mock Draft Central, his current ADP is 32.58, meaning he is going in the third round on average.
Given his injury history that seems like a huge stretch to me. Granted, he is an extremely talented player, when he is on the field. That’s a huge caveat, as he has never played in more than 128 Major League games in any season.
Upside is one thing, but in the first three rounds I know that I want a little bit more certainty. There is just no guarantee that he plays in more than 100 games in 2011, meaning that the risk outweighs the reward. Included in the outfielders being drafted after him are Andre Ethier and Andrew McCutchen, two players I would much rather select.
I will go into this topic in much more detail in the coming weeks, but let’s get this discussion started now. Do you see Nelson Cruz as a potential third round selection? Why or why not?