When I posted my outfield rankings this morning (click here to view) I had the Texas Rangers’ Nelson Cruz ranked at #14. Overall I have him ranked at #55. However, when you look at Mock Draft Central, his current ADP is 32.58, meaning he is going in the third round on average.
Given his injury history that seems like a huge stretch to me. Granted, he is an extremely talented player, when he is on the field. That’s a huge caveat, as he has never played in more than 128 Major League games in any season.
Upside is one thing, but in the first three rounds I know that I want a little bit more certainty. There is just no guarantee that he plays in more than 100 games in 2011, meaning that the risk outweighs the reward. Included in the outfielders being drafted after him are Andre Ethier and Andrew McCutchen, two players I would much rather select.
I will go into this topic in much more detail in the coming weeks, but let’s get this discussion started now. Do you see Nelson Cruz as a potential third round selection? Why or why not?
I have him in two keeper leagues (along with McCutcheon in both) and agree that is a stretch. I would love to see him on the field for 140 games but basically I know i have to draft a strong OF to back him up.
Here was ny take on Cruz last week.
AL Nelson Cruz: ADP (32) the 8th OF off the board. Cruz missed a total of 54 games last season and spent three different stints on the DL because of nagging hamstring injuries. He also missed time in 2009 with an ankle injury. Due to the reoccurring injuries he has skipped winter ball this year. According to the Rangers, Cruz is “learning” to run upright. Will this slow him down or just keep him from stealing bases? He also has a goal to stay healthy. Nice goals Nelson since you have never played in more than 128 games. When healthy he is a monster at the plate, like crushing 33 HR in 09’. He is the personification of the late bloomer, now at 31 this year he has all the tools to be dominating. Let’s take a step back and see what we are drafting. A career .273 hitter, only 1 season over 22HR, someone who is changing their running style for a team that doesn’t really want him running, and consistently going to the DL. Cruz’ goal is to stay healthy and my goal is mock anyone who takes him in round 2 or 3. I like any of the next 6 OF coming off the board after him.
The third round is too early for me too. Considering his durability, a fourth or fifth round selection is warranted.
I have him ranked earlier than that (I have him at 27th but I devalue pitchers). I forecast him for
PA:496, AB446 RUNS:73 HR:29 RBI:84 SB:15.92, AVG: 0.292
You add in a replacement level OF and you’re at this for the season
PA: 633 AB:567 Runs:91, HR:33 RBI:102 SB:18.7 AVG: 0.286453075 That is right there with the top outfielders.
Brett, a team that doesn’t want him running?
Rangers are a very basepaths-oriented club, and whatever “upright” stance or not, he will be stealing bags, that’s his game.
Having said that, I wouldn’t touch him in the third…
Aren’t people looking at his “injury history” looking at a relatively small sample? Wasn’t last year his second full year in the bigs? Injuries like hamstrings have plagued ball players in this or other sports for an entire season and not reoccur after that during their career and an ankle injury isn’t exactly a reoccuring injury either. A couple of flukish injuries does not necessarily make one injury prone. Not sure I take him in the 3rd but I certainly don’t lay off of him entirely.
advised my son to trade cruz for Utley. also told him to trade Ade Greinke for Teix. Keeper lg. w/ 5 keepers. Doc/Zimmerman/Utley/Teix. Advised him to trade Ethier for Reyes/. big walk yr. coming. Love to cover the entire infield w/ solid 4-5 tool guys. Doc works big as complete games are a category.