Wild Prediction: Ike Davis’ Power

The Mets may have been decimated by injuries and off the field issues the past few years, but that doesn’t mean that they are without any silver linings.  Ike Davis, a 2008 first round draft choice, certainly is something that Mets fans can be thankful for.

After an injury to Daniel Murphy opened the door in 2010, Davis grabbed the first base job and never relinquished it.  In 523 AB he hit .264 with 19 HR, 71 RBI and 71 R.  Modest numbers, yes, but they don’t tell the entire story.  You could see that he has power in his bat if you saw him play, as there were times that he made CitiField look small.

Now, as we enter 2011, there’s a good chance the 23-year old takes a step forward.  How big of a step?  Well, that leads to today’s prediction:

Ike Davis will hit at least 35 HR in 2011

Obviously, that’s quite a big jump, but there are many people who have taken notice of his power.  The Braves’ Chipper Jones was quoted in the Daily News (click here for the article) as saying:

“I don’t think I’ve seen a guy, pound for pound, with more pop than he’s got…  It’s just a matter of him getting his reps in, seeing the league a couple times, and getting comfortable.  He showed me enough last year to impress me.  He’s very slick at first, a well-rounded ballplayer.  If he connects, the ball will hit the Grand Canyon.”

Considering the source, those comments should hold plenty of weight.

Of course, you also have to look at the underlying numbers.  He posted a 40.5% fly ball rate in 2010, to go along with a 12.0% HR/FB.  Would it be a stretch that, another year older and more experienced, that both rates increase?  Let’s see what a few other players did with some similar fly ball rates in ’10:

  • Vernon Wells – 41.9% FB% – 14.6% HR/FB – 31 HR (590 AB)
  • Ryan Zimmerman – 41.2% FB% – 14.0% HR/FB – 25 HR (525 AB)
  • David Wright – 42.7% FB% – 15.5% HR/FB – 29 HR (587 AB)

So, with just a modest increase in his fly ball rate and in his HR/FB to go along with a full slate of AB, is this as outrageous of a notion as you may have first thought?  Yes, the home ballpark isn’t ideal, but eight of his 19 did come at home in 2010.

It certainly appears that it is not as farfetched as one may think.

Chance of Happening: 18%

What are your thoughts of Davis?  Is there any chance he hits 35 HR in 2011?  Why or why not?

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Make sure to check out our previous Wild Predictions:

4 comments

  1. Jim says:

    His average distance per home run hit was 416 feet. This lead the league. Second was Jose Bautista and he was short 13 feet per home run. Yeah – I think this idea has some legs.

  2. Nick Tenaglia says:

    Im in a deep dynasty league (20 teams, 40 man rosters) and have Ryan Howard and Mitch Moreland as my current 1Bs.

    I am thinking that I might offer Howard for Davis plus another player. But do you think that a combination of Moreland and Davis will provide enough power to the 1B position? Is that too much of a drop to go from Howard to Davis?

    PS- We get to start 1 1B, 1 Corner IF, and 2 UTIL

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      In a league that deep, I would want a lot more in return for Howard, honestly. Howard is still a Top 2 or 3 round player and while Davis has a lot of upside, he’s no Davis. It would really depend on who the other player is, but on the surface it doesn’t seem like a great play.

  3. Realist says:

    I’d say it is a .00000001% chance. Cuth has a wayyyyyyyyyyy better shot at 30-30.

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