Mark Reynolds has always been an all or nothing type hitter. Even when he posted his 44 HR campaign in 2009 he managed to strikeout 38.6% of the time. He followed that up by hitting 32 HR and seeing his strikeout rate rise to 42.3% in 2010.
Yes, he did struggle with multiple injuries, but does that justify his poor season or is it just an excuse in an attempt to cover his obvious flaws?
Now, he moves to the AL East where he will attempt to resurrect his value. Hitting for power is nice, but look at his averages the past three seasons:
- 2008 – .239
- 2009 – .260
- 2010 – .198
Sure, if he can hit 40+ HR he can post a usable average, but is anyone actually going to bank on that? His best strikeout rate of his career came in his rookie season when he was at 35.2%. Now, facing pitchers that he has little to no history with, can we really expect him to make significant improvements?
Then again, he did face the AL East in interleague play in 2010 and posted the following stellar numbers against his new division mates:
- Boston Red Sox: 0-11, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 9 K
- New York Yankees: 2-9, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R, 4 K
- Toronto Blue Jays: 4-11, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, 5 K
I know it’s an extremely small sample size, but how excited are we now?
Throw in the fact that he’s moving away from Chase Field, and things look even bleaker. I know Camden Yards is a favorable hitter’s park, but look at his 2010 splits at home and on the road:
- Home: .216, 21 HR, 53 RBI, 43 R
- Road: .181, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 36 R
It hasn’t always been such a stark contrast, but it is very much worth noting.
Yes, his 2010 average was based on a little bit of poor luck (.257), but he also seemed to get more homer happy than normal (54.9% fly ball rate). If he corrects that, maybe he can post more usable numbers. Still, does anyone really want to take this type of gamble?
In know some people want to think of him as a power/speed option, but that doesn’t seem very accurate. One season of 24 SB does not make a speedster, especially when you realize he has just 18 SB in his other three seasons combined.
The bottom line is that this is what I am projecting for him in 2011:
.238 (131-550), 33 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R, 9 SB, .319 BABIP, .319 OBP, .467 SLG, 38.18% K%
Calling him a wild card would be an extremely huge understatement. Yes, he has power potential and could deliver 40 HR, but there’s a better chance that he hits .220 than that he hits .270 and a good chance he doesn’t provide much in the way of speed. That puts a huge black cloud over him and leaves him as a last resort for the power starved.
What are your thoughts? Is Reynolds someone you would target? What are you expecting from him in 2011?
**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****
Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections: