2011 Projection: Mark Reynolds Takes Hist Strikeout Talents To Baltimore

Mark Reynolds has always been an all or nothing type hitter.  Even when he posted his 44 HR campaign in 2009 he managed to strikeout 38.6% of the time. He followed that up by hitting 32 HR and seeing his strikeout rate rise to 42.3% in 2010.

Yes, he did struggle with multiple injuries, but does that justify his poor season or is it just an excuse in an attempt to cover his obvious flaws?

Now, he moves to the AL East where he will attempt to resurrect his value.  Hitting for power is nice, but look at his averages the past three seasons:

  • 2008 – .239
  • 2009 – .260
  • 2010 – .198

Sure, if he can hit 40+ HR he can post a usable average, but is anyone actually going to bank on that?  His best strikeout rate of his career came in his rookie season when he was at 35.2%.  Now, facing pitchers that he has little to no history with, can we really expect him to make significant improvements?

Then again, he did face the AL East in interleague play in 2010 and posted the following stellar numbers against his new division mates:

  • Boston Red Sox: 0-11, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 9 K
  • New York Yankees: 2-9, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R, 4 K
  • Toronto Blue Jays: 4-11, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, 5 K

I know it’s an extremely small sample size, but how excited are we now?

Throw in the fact that he’s moving away from Chase Field, and things look even bleaker.  I know Camden Yards is a favorable hitter’s park, but look at his 2010 splits at home and on the road:

  • Home: .216, 21 HR, 53 RBI, 43 R
  • Road: .181, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 36 R

It hasn’t always been such a stark contrast, but it is very much worth noting.

Yes, his 2010 average was based on a little bit of poor luck (.257), but he also seemed to get more homer happy than normal (54.9% fly ball rate).  If he corrects that, maybe he can post more usable numbers.  Still, does anyone really want to take this type of gamble?

In know some people want to think of him as a power/speed option, but that doesn’t seem very accurate.  One season of 24 SB does not make a speedster, especially when you realize he has just 18 SB in his other three seasons combined.

The bottom line is that this is what I am projecting for him in 2011:

.238 (131-550), 33 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R, 9 SB, .319 BABIP, .319 OBP, .467 SLG, 38.18% K%

Calling him a wild card would be an extremely huge understatement.  Yes, he has power potential and could deliver 40 HR, but there’s a better chance that he hits .220 than that he hits .270 and a good chance he doesn’t provide much in the way of speed.  That puts a huge black cloud over him and leaves him as a last resort for the power starved.

What are your thoughts?  Is Reynolds someone you would target?  What are you expecting from him in 2011?

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7 comments

  1. Brandt says:

    The problem is he has been so dang tempting at 12-13 round. To get that type of power at that time of a draft? And at 3B? If I miss out of a 3B by this point of the draft, I’m certainly tempted to take him. Especially if I have a 1B/3B or a utility need.

  2. La Posse says:

    I agree with Brandt, I’m in a league were many people turn up their noses at Reynolds, but getting that type of power in the middle rounds can make your championship season. Also, I think your stats on his OBP are a bit low.

  3. Kyle Eidsness says:

    I love me some Mark Reynolds. He can’t be as bad as last year (really, he can’t) and if his average creeps up some, that’ll help with all his counting stats. Plus his lineup in Bmore is pretty solid this year. Definitely taking a chance here in the late rounds.

  4. yummy says:

    I grabbed him in the 10th round of a league that does not have CI or MI but fileds 2 UTIL. I was happy to snag him. Really, how many everyday players have actually put back to back years together under the mendoza line…none that I can recently remember. Even if he gives me 25HR and 85RBI hitting .240 with 10 SB I will take that at 3B in round 10!!

  5. Herb Urban says:

    Aside from the low BABIP, Reynolds was hurt for much of last season. He played through a thigh injury which limited his SB totals. He also tried to play through a wrist injury in September when the D’Backs should have just shut him down.

    There is no sugarcoating his 2010, but he went 4-60 with no homers and 1 RBI in September. His wrist injury has to be to blame for his awful September. Through the end of August he was at .228 with 32 HR. Without the wrist injury, he would have finished with near .230 with 37-38 HR. Not great, but a lot better than his final .198 with 32 HR.

    His BA will always be ugly, but if he can stay healthy, 35 HR should be a given.

  6. YourMomsBoyfriend says:

    i got him for $1 in a 8 team 5×5 auction keeper league (along with Zimmerman). while I won’t keep him, IF he’s having a good year, I can trade him for pitching or to improve my 1B.

    however, i seem to think he rebounds relatively nicely. .240 with 35 HR and 18 SBs is a VERY nice season for any 3B and in Camden, with better hitters around him (Lee, Wieters who is due for an explosion, Vlad, Markakis, Jones, Roberts (if he’s healthy)) could lead to a good year.

    he’s worth a flyer in later rounds.

  7. Rotoprofessor says:

    I agree with everyone that, if he falls and you can get him at a discount, he is certainly worth the flyer, especially at a weak position. I would much rather have him as a reserve than as a starter, however. Plus, if I draft him, I am making sure that I get at least one or two other options, just in case.

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