As of right now I have Ian Kinsler slightly ahead of Dan Uggla in my second base rankings for standard leagues, though it is extremely close.
- Kinsler is injury prone, seemingly costing him time every season, but he brings 20/20 potential and is now back to hitting atop a high-powered offense.
- Uggla has as much power as any 2B, but strikes out a ton and runs the risk of hitting for a poor average.
So, the question for the night is which of these two 2B would you draft if you had the choice and why?
I got Kinsler slightly ahead also, but I will be keeping tabs on K this spring, Both have potential to have explosive seasons. I think people talk more about Ian’s injury history and less then Uggla’s potential .250 avg
Help me pick to Keepers
thank you
Cargo Rd.12
Votto Rd.2
Bautista Rd.24
Buster Posey Rd.25
Cargo and Posey, Draft Votto or Cargo and Votto or what”?
I’d go CarGo/Posey at those values. Votto is a great player, but my guess is there will be plenty of 1st round talent available when you draft. CarGo is one of those few 1st round talents, so he’s a no-brainer.
While I’ve downgraded Posey some, he’s worth a heck of a lot more than Rd. 25. Too good value to let him get away.
I’d rather have Uggla because this season you can pick up speed cheaply in the later rounds, even at that position (like Nishioka). I like Kinsler, but he gets hurt so often that it’s too much of a risk for where he’s likely to go in a draft. Also, I’m skeptical about whether his power is going to come back coupled with the limited RBI opportunities he’ll have if Washington is going to keep him as the leadoff hitter.
Kinsler hitting at the top of the order should just about guarantee top 2B production. Esp if you can pick up Aaron Hill as a compliment in the 13th, Kinsler is a great pick where he’s available, slightly better option than Uggla imo.
I think this one is easy: Uggla without Question
GAMES PLAYED:
Uggla has never played less than 146 games since 2006, whereas Kinsler has only played in more than 130 games once (144 in 2009).
HOME RUNS:
Uggla hasn’t hit under 30 HR since 2006, when he hit 27. Kinsler has hit more than 20 HR only once – 2009 when he hit 31 HR (to go with 31 SB).
RBI:
Uggla has only had LESS than 90 RBI once – 2007 with 88 RBI. Kinsler has only had MORE than 75 RBI once – 2009 when he had 86.
RUNS SCORED:
Uggla has scored more than 85 Runs in all but one season – 2009 when he had 84. Kinsler only has 3 seasons where has scored more than 85 Runs (2007-2009: 96, 102, 101)
BATTING AVERAGE:
Uggla has a worse career average – .263 – whereas Kinsler’s is .281, however, of Uggla’s 5 seasons he has still batted over .280 twice (2006 and 2010). So he has shown that he has the ability to hit for a decent enough average. Kinsler’s average is better, however, of his 5 seasons he has two where he has batted .263 and .253 (2007 & 2009). So Kinsler is not a lock for that .281 career mark either.
STOLEN BASES:
Ok so this one is a no-brainer. Uggla doesn’t steal bases and Kinsler does. However, what is the real value of a 2B that can steal bases? Well in 2010 there was only 1 player steal more than 20 bases (Figgins, 42). However, when look back to 2009 and 2008, there were 9 players in ’09 to steal more than 20 bases and 6 players in ’08 to steal more than 20. Whereas with HR, there have only been 9 2B to hit at least 29 HR in one season between 2008-2010. Thus placing more value on the HR than the SB from the 2B position.
FINAL VERDICT:
Over a 162 game projection here are the numbers you would get-
Kinsler:
115 R / 24 HR / 83 RBI / 28 SB / .281 AVG
Uggla:
104 R / 32 HR / 97 RBI / 4 SB / .263 AVG
So its clear that if health were NOT a concern, that Kinsler is the far more valuable and well-rounded player. What he lacks in HR and RBI, he more than makes up with his SB and AVG.
However, since this is real-life and not MLB 2k11, health actually factors in to the value of a player, and seeing as how Kinsler has averaged only 123 games per season over the past 5 seasons and Uggla has averaged 155 games per season over the past 5 seasons, the obvious choice is Uggla.
Regardless of what type or size league you are in, you should not be drafting a high-priced player if you know he can’t get ABs. You cannot assume that Kinsler will be healthy, because he has no track record of it. This is pretty black-and-white once you lay everything out on the table.
@mike: keep all of them? If you can only pick three, drop Votto. His value in the second round is good. The other values are flippin’ fantastic.
@nick: good analysis. In a video game I take Kinsler. In a league where there’s some FA depth (or I have a suitable replacement) I might take Kinsler, too. But I love Uggla’s reliability and he’s hitting in a better lineup now. Go snipe Brent Gardner to pair with Uggla and you’re sitting pretty.
Since you bring up Brett Gardner…
If you are going to draft Uggla, who in theory is not well-rounded in the HR/SB categories, with such a deep set of 2B, then you can look to SS for your SB numbers. Because SS is so shallow (2 viable top options), then you might as well use that spot to focus on 1 category.
Elvis Andrus, Cliff Pennington, Furcal or Theriot are all cheap options are all have a good chance at getting at least 20+ steals.
Nick, I like the theory, but I don’t think Andrus is going to be considered a “cheap” option. According to Mock Draft Central he has an ADP of around 70.
Starlin Castro (ADP 160) would be a much better option to pair with him.