Zack Greinke To Miss Start Of Season – Top 30 SP Fallout

According to Ken Rosenthal via Twitter, “MRI on Greinke revealed one bruised rib and one hairline fracture. Bone will take 4 to 6 weeks to heal”.

Mlb.com has also posted an article (click here to view), clarifying things a little bit:

“Greinke, the team’s biggest offseason addition and likely Opening Day starter, had made two Cactus League starts with sore ribs before undergoing an MRI scan on Monday that revealed a minor fracture of his seventh rib and a bone bruise on his eighth rib. The normal recovery time is four to six weeks from the time of injury, Brewers head physician William Raasch said, meaning Greinke is already about two weeks into the healing process.”

That puts him out for about another 2-4 weeks.  When you work in time on the mound (since he will miss the remainder of Spring Training) to get into game shape, it would appear that he is going to miss anywhere from the first two to four weeks of the season.

It’s a huge hit to his potential value, there’s no question about that, but it doesn’t mean that he should be ignored completely on draft day.  With the move to the NL he still has the potential to post gaudy numbers when he does take the mound.  The problem is, we don’t know exactly how long he is going to be out, and the uncertainty just further hurts his perceived value on draft day.  For now I have to assume the worst, meaning his projected innings drops to around 180.  Hopefully he’s able to return sooner, however.

Let’s take a look at how far he drops in the rankings (these will again be re-evaluated as more information becomes available):

  1. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
  2. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
  3. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
  4. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
  5. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
  6. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
  7. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
  8. Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
  9. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
  10. Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
  11. Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
  12. Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
  13. Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
  14. Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
  15. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
  16. Clay Buccholz – Boston Red Sox
  17. Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
  18. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
  19. Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
  20. Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies
  21. Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers
  22. Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
  23. David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
  24. Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
  25. Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics
  26. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
  27. Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
  28. Matt Garza – Chicago Cubs
  29. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox
  30. Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

5 comments

  1. Aesop says:

    16 team h2h (5×5 categories) dynasty (keep full roster):

    Send: Kinsler
    Get: Alvarez, D. Hudson

    If you have any other ideas for this team, please tell me!

    My Team:

    C Matt Wieters, Bal
    1B Adrian Gonzalez, Bos
    2B Chase Utley, Phi
    3B Mark Reynolds, Bal
    SS Troy Tulowitzki, Col
    IF Ian Kinsler, Tex
    LF Ryan Braun, Mil
    CF Matt Kemp, LAD
    RF Justin Upton, Ari
    OF Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos
    UTIL Carlos Quentin, CWS
    UTIL Jose Tabata, Pit
    Bench Dexter Fowler, Col
    Bench Kila Ka’aihue, KC
    Bench Mike Aviles, KC
    Bench Peter Bourjos, LAA
    Bench Edwin Encarnacion, Tor
    Bench Reid Brignac, TB

    PITCHERS
    P Drew Storen, Was
    P Neftali Feliz, Tex
    SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD
    SP Edinson Volquez, Cin
    SP Jordan Zimmermann, Was
    SP Clay Buchholz, Bos SP
    SP Brett Anderson, Oak SP
    RP Brian Wilson, SF RP
    RP John Axford, Mil RP
    Bench Brandon Morrow, Tor SP
    Bench C.J. Wilson, Tex SP
    Bench Jaime Garcia, StL SP
    Bench Mike Pelfrey, NYM SP

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Not a bad deal, as long as you believe Alvarez is going to develop into one of the elite 3B in the league. Otherwise, injuries or not, you are giving up a Top 40 player without getting a sure thing (as well as leaving yourself questionable in the middle infield).

      I love Alvarez, long-term, so I could see the thinking behind the deal. Just be sure you feel that strongly about him before pulling the trigger. In a league where you keep people indefinitely, getting someone as talented as Kinsler is not easy to do. I’d want to make sure I was getting the same type of talent in return.

  2. C BASS says:

    I like the rankings. Why so low for Matt Cain though? I know he has some arm problems going into the year but he’s been as durable as anyone. And why so high for Josh Beckett? He was beyond terrible last season and while I expect him to bounce back I’m not sure he can get into the top 30.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      In regards to Beckett, there was a lot of bad luck last year (.349 BABIP, 65.3% strand rate). Improved luck will certainly go a long ways.

      For Cain, there was some luck at play and I wouldn’t expect him to post a WHIP of around 1.08 again. I actually have him projected for a 3.48 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, so I really do like him. I just happen to like some other guys a little bit more.

  3. The Dude says:

    I’m a big Josh Beckett fan, and he’s not even close to a top pitcher any more. He may end up the #5 stater in Boston this year.

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