According to Ken Rosenthal via Twitter, “MRI on Greinke revealed one bruised rib and one hairline fracture. Bone will take 4 to 6 weeks to heal”.
Mlb.com has also posted an article (click here to view), clarifying things a little bit:
“Greinke, the team’s biggest offseason addition and likely Opening Day starter, had made two Cactus League starts with sore ribs before undergoing an MRI scan on Monday that revealed a minor fracture of his seventh rib and a bone bruise on his eighth rib. The normal recovery time is four to six weeks from the time of injury, Brewers head physician William Raasch said, meaning Greinke is already about two weeks into the healing process.”
That puts him out for about another 2-4 weeks. When you work in time on the mound (since he will miss the remainder of Spring Training) to get into game shape, it would appear that he is going to miss anywhere from the first two to four weeks of the season.
It’s a huge hit to his potential value, there’s no question about that, but it doesn’t mean that he should be ignored completely on draft day. With the move to the NL he still has the potential to post gaudy numbers when he does take the mound. The problem is, we don’t know exactly how long he is going to be out, and the uncertainty just further hurts his perceived value on draft day. For now I have to assume the worst, meaning his projected innings drops to around 180. Hopefully he’s able to return sooner, however.
Let’s take a look at how far he drops in the rankings (these will again be re-evaluated as more information becomes available):
- Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
- Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
- Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
- Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
- CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
- Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
- Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
- Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
- Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
- Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
- Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
- Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
- Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
- Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
- Clay Buccholz – Boston Red Sox
- Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
- Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
- Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
- Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies
- Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers
- Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
- David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
- Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
- Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics
- Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
- Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
- Matt Garza – Chicago Cubs
- Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox
- Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers
What are your thoughts on the rankings? Who’s too high? Who’s too low?
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16 team h2h (5×5 categories) dynasty (keep full roster):
Send: Kinsler
Get: Alvarez, D. Hudson
If you have any other ideas for this team, please tell me!
My Team:
C Matt Wieters, Bal
1B Adrian Gonzalez, Bos
2B Chase Utley, Phi
3B Mark Reynolds, Bal
SS Troy Tulowitzki, Col
IF Ian Kinsler, Tex
LF Ryan Braun, Mil
CF Matt Kemp, LAD
RF Justin Upton, Ari
OF Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos
UTIL Carlos Quentin, CWS
UTIL Jose Tabata, Pit
Bench Dexter Fowler, Col
Bench Kila Ka’aihue, KC
Bench Mike Aviles, KC
Bench Peter Bourjos, LAA
Bench Edwin Encarnacion, Tor
Bench Reid Brignac, TB
PITCHERS
P Drew Storen, Was
P Neftali Feliz, Tex
SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD
SP Edinson Volquez, Cin
SP Jordan Zimmermann, Was
SP Clay Buchholz, Bos SP
SP Brett Anderson, Oak SP
RP Brian Wilson, SF RP
RP John Axford, Mil RP
Bench Brandon Morrow, Tor SP
Bench C.J. Wilson, Tex SP
Bench Jaime Garcia, StL SP
Bench Mike Pelfrey, NYM SP
Not a bad deal, as long as you believe Alvarez is going to develop into one of the elite 3B in the league. Otherwise, injuries or not, you are giving up a Top 40 player without getting a sure thing (as well as leaving yourself questionable in the middle infield).
I love Alvarez, long-term, so I could see the thinking behind the deal. Just be sure you feel that strongly about him before pulling the trigger. In a league where you keep people indefinitely, getting someone as talented as Kinsler is not easy to do. I’d want to make sure I was getting the same type of talent in return.
I like the rankings. Why so low for Matt Cain though? I know he has some arm problems going into the year but he’s been as durable as anyone. And why so high for Josh Beckett? He was beyond terrible last season and while I expect him to bounce back I’m not sure he can get into the top 30.
In regards to Beckett, there was a lot of bad luck last year (.349 BABIP, 65.3% strand rate). Improved luck will certainly go a long ways.
For Cain, there was some luck at play and I wouldn’t expect him to post a WHIP of around 1.08 again. I actually have him projected for a 3.48 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, so I really do like him. I just happen to like some other guys a little bit more.
I’m a big Josh Beckett fan, and he’s not even close to a top pitcher any more. He may end up the #5 stater in Boston this year.