Over/Under: Mike Stanton’s Power

It’s a simple premise, I’m going to make a statement and all you have to do is say if you think the player will be over or under the mark I set.

Mike Stanton will hit 35 HR in 2011

I am taking the over on this one, though I do think it will be close.  His 22 HR in 396 AB in ’10 gave him a HR once every 18 AB.  With a year of experience and another year older (and potentially stronger), would it really be a surprise if he betters that mark?  He easily could become the next Adam Dunn.

Would it really surprise anyone if he surpasses 40 this season?

5 comments

  1. Johnny Ballgame says:

    Yeah, that would surprise the crap out of me. No doubt Stanton is talented but second year players rarely it 40.
    I’d bet under big if there was a line on it.

  2. JREwing says:

    Under. Stanton is not a high-contact guy (34% k%) and now that teams have scouted him a bit I’m sure some holes in his swing will be exploited. It usually takes a while for young lower-contact power guys like that to make adjustments (see also: Chris Davis).

    Not saying Stanton will be Chris Davis, but if he gives you upper 20s HRs in 2011 I think you feel good about that.

  3. Nick Tenaglia says:

    I agree with JRE here. If you draft Stanton you should be expecting 28 HRs, regardless of he did last year. So many players have breakout rookie seasons only to falter in their second year. Besides scouting being better on these sophomore players, I believe that there is an inherent feeling of more pressure being heaped onto these players – either from their team/manager/fans or simply a self-empowered sense of pressure. Especially in today’s world where every top prospect is touted as the “Next Great Superstar”, these young kids usually try to hard to make these predictions come true.

    I have made the mistake far too many times to draft a young 20-something player that had an awesome rookie season only to fall into the dreaded sophomore slump.

    Here is a perfect example…
    One of the best (if not THE best) Homerun hitter of our this decade had a rookie line of: .262 / .371 / .578 with 19 HR in 244 AB.
    So given a normal progression schedule, in the next season when he got a full season of ABs you would be expecting 40 HR, right? Well no… here is the mystery players sophomore line: .249 / .400 / .454 with 26 HR in 535 AB
    Consequently, in his 3rd season he only got 381 AB, but was able to hit 27 HR (1 more HR with 150 LESS AB!)
    So as you can see, the sophomore slump is a REAL thing, even to the best players…. Oh I almost forgot to tell you who I am talking about. This would be Mr Adam Dunn. Mr “354-HR-Over-10-Seasons” Dunn.

    There is only a slight doubt in my mind that Stanton won’t achieve Adam Dunn-like power numbers, but will it happen in 2011? Absolutely NOT

  4. Nick Tenaglia says:

    And then just to keep the examples coming, let’s take a look at Roy Halladay.

    He first appeared in the bigs in 1998, but didn’t have a qualifying rookie season until ’99 where he pitched 149 innings. His record was 8-7, had an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.57 and a K/9 of 4.9.
    He started that season as a reliever, but after 3 appearances he was starting games. He started 8 games in a row, but then was converted back to a reliever and spot-starter. He then ended the season as a starter with 7 straight starts.

    He began the 2000 season as he left the prior year, as a starter. He started seven games, only getting past the 6th inning in one of them (his first of the season). He only ended up pitching in 67 innings that season, and got himself a nice little ERA of 10.64 in the process.

    The next season he pitched 105 IP with a 3.16 ERA. In fact, since that sophomore season, Halladay has only had an ERA over 3.25 twice (4.20 in 2004 and 3.71 in 2007)

  5. Dirty Jersey says:

    Really hope so…. I got him for $11 in a dynasty league and locked him up for 5 years (max) where he will be $11 in yr1, then $13, $15 $17 $19 in yr5…. if he puts up numbers like that he is a STEAL

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