During his rookie 2010 season Starlin Castro managed 39 extra base hits (31 doubles, 5 triples, 3 home runs) in 463 AB. In 43 spring at bats he has six extra base hits. That alone shows a better ratio:
- 2010 – 1 extra base hit every 11.9 AB
- 2011 Spring Training – 1 extra base hit every 7.2 AB
Of course, that wouldn’t cause us to take much notice. It’s the spring and you are facing a lot of subpar pitching, right? What is even more noteworthy, however, is that of his six extra base hits, four are home runs. Makes you pay a little bit more attention.
The question is if, at 21-years old (he turns 21 on March 24), is he ready to add power to his impressive skillset? Long-term people do feel like he’s going to add home runs to the mix, but no one was expecting that to come in 2011.
Before we can answer that question fully, let’s take a look at who he has taken deep this spring:
- March 2 – vs. Yovani Gallardo
- March 12 – vs. Mike Leake
- March 12 – vs. Matt Maloney
- March 18 – vs. Jared Burton
It’s interesting to note that all four home runs have come against NL Central pitchers, and all guys that he has the potential to face during the regular season. Does it mean anything? Not really, but it is worth noting.
The fact of the matter is that his spring power surge is probably nothing. In 2010 he posted a fly ball rate of 29.2% and a HR/FB of 2.6%. Could he better those numbers? Absolutely, but not enough to make him someone that you would consider an asset in the power department.
If you are going to draft Castro, which certainly is worth considering once you miss the top names at shortstop, you should do so expecting a good average to go along with run and stolen base potential (he should drastically improve on his 10 SB, 53 R rookie performance). If you get anything else, consider it a bonus.
In time, Castro may develop into a 12-17 HR a year option, but that’s still probably a year or two away. Value him appropriately (anywhere from Round 9-13) and you should not be disappointed.
What are your thoughts of Castro? Could he add power for 2011? What are you expecting from him?
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Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
- Barmes, Clint
- Buchholz, Clay
- Butler, Billy
- Choo, Shin-Soo
- Drew, Stephen
- Ethier, Andre
- Freese, David
- Hudson, Tim
- Hughes, Phil
- Jaso, John
- Johnson, Chris
- Uggla, Dan
- Morrow, Brandon
- Phillips, Brandon
- Reyes, Jose
- Reynolds, Mark
- Rios, Alex
- Sanchez, Gaby
- Span, Denard
- Stanton, Mike
- Suzuki, Kurt
- Walker, Neil
- Wieters, Matt
- Willingham, Josh
- Young, Michael