Why Adam Jones Could Be Destined To Disappoint In 2018

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We can call Adam Jones “Mr. Dependable” if you want, because despite the peripherals he just keeps producing year after year.  The 2017 campaign was no different:

597 At Bats
.285 Batting Average (170 Hits)
26 Home Runs
73 RBI
82 Runs
2 Stolen Bases
.322 On Base Percentage
.466 Slugging Percentage
.312 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There is value in dependability, but that production relative to the makeup of the rest of Major League Baseball is going to hurt his value.  When hitting 25+ HR year after year wasn’t commonplace he brought something to the table, but last season there were 74 players who hit at least 25 HR (in 2014, for comparison, there were 27).  With that no longer being an asset, what exactly does he bring to the table? Read more

Fallout: Ryon Healy Heads To Seattle: Breaking Down The Winners & Losers (Healy, Olson, Chapman & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Trade:

  • The Seattle Mariners acquired 1B/3B Ryon Healy
  • The Oakland A’s acquired RHP Emilio Pagan & INF Alexander Campos

 

Seattle Mariners – The Fallout
The acquisition of Healy is an interesting one, as they will utilize him as their 1B moving forward (he’s obviously not going to supplant Kyle Seager at the hot corner and while Nelson Cruz could be utilized in the outfield, he only saw 5 games there in ’17).  That means, for at least one season, Dan Vogelbach will be viewed as a depth option either off the bench or at Triple-A (though he could be flipped in a subsequent deal).

It makes sense, after Seattle’s first baseman finished the year with a league worst .389 SLG.  It was a spot that needed upgrading, and Healy does bring that potential after hitting .271 with 25 HR for Oakland.  What’s interesting, though, is that he actually struggled away from Oakland (.248 with 11 HR over 306 AB) and he also showed poor plate discipline:

  • SwStr% – 12.0%
  • O-Swing% – 35.8%

Read more

Looking At The 10 Worst Hitter’s O-Swing% From 2017: Javier Baez, Adam Jones & Motr

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Chasing pitches outside of the strike zone doesn’t mean that a player is going to struggle.  It doesn’t guarantee an elevated strikeout rate or consistently weak contact, but it certainly doesn’t help matters.  With that in mind let’s take a look at the ten players who posted the highest O-Swing% from 2017 and try to pinpoint their outlook moving forward:

Ranking
Player
O-Swing%
1.Corey Dickerson45.6%
2.Javier Baez45.1%
3.Adam Jones44.1%
4.Brandon Phillips41.8%
5.Tim Anderson41.3%
6.Didi Gregorius40.8%
7.Mike Moustakas40.3%
8.Kevin Pillar40.1%
9.Odubel Herrera40.0%
10.Avisail Garcia39.8%

Read more

Breakout or Bust: Why We Are Buying Into Blake Snell’s Late Season Flourish

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Rays’ Blake Snell has been considered one of the best pitching prospects over the past few years, though we’ve seen many similar pitchers stumble upon reaching the Majors.  Snell was no different, especially as his control continued to be an issue.  Late in 2017 we saw a change, though, as he posted BB/9 of 2.67 in August and 2.93 in September.  Now the question is if he has finally figured it out and can continue on that path, or if it was nothing more than a flash in the pan.

The key has been a change in approach, as he started throwing his secondary pitches more over those two months:

Months
Fourseam
Curveball
Slider
Changeup
April - July57.76%7.96%15.37%18.91%
August & September51.80%13.17%11.08%23.95%
Read more

2018 Projection: Why Jose Quintana Is No Guarantee To Rebound In 2018

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There has long been high expectations for Jose Quintana, and despite a slow start with the White Sox the trade across the city and into the NL only added to the hype.  However at the end of the day his overall numbers fell flat, though it didn’t come as a complete surprise for us here at Rotoprofessor. T hose who purchased our 2017 Fantasy Baseball Draft saw him labeled as a potential overdraft, when we said:

“There is something to be said about Quintana’s steady approach and he brings elite control.  However his groundball rate fell last season (40.4%) and he doesn’t have strikeout upside (7.6% SwStr% in ’16).  While he got the job done in ’16, can he continue to thrive with just one “true” skill?  Throw in the name recognition, thanks to trade rumors, and the risk outweighs the reward (as the cost will likely be a Top 30 starter).”

Obviously if you paid a top 30 starter price tag you will bitterly disappointed with these numbers: Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Has The Time Come To Finally Give Up On C.J. Cron?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We keep waiting for C.J. Cron to emerge as a viable fantasy option.  He keeps showing signs, though the warts then present themselves and eliminate the shimmer of hope.  The 2017 season was no different, and the base numbers alone show it:

339 At Bats
.248 Batting Average (84 Hits)
16 Home Runs
56 RBI
39 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.305 On Base Percentage
.437 Slugging Percentage
.296 Batting Average on Balls in Play

One of the problems has always been battling for playing time, with Albert Pujols (among others) helping to eat up the AB.  That’s just the tip of the iceberg, and things could quickly get worse. Read more