Archive for Player Projections

Projecting Danny Green’s 2013 – 2014 Value: From Playoff Hero to Fantasy Star?

by Will Overton

If you didn’t know the name Danny Green before the NBA Finals last season you got to know it in a hurry. Green was a machine in that series against the Heat setting an NBA record for most three-pointers made in a finals series while at times being the anchor on offense for San Antonio.

It was certainly fun to watch his performance, but now we have to ask that question…What does it mean? What does Green’s playoff performance mean for fantasy basketball owners going into the 2013 – 2014 season? Does it mean he has arrive as a legit fantasy star? Does it mean he’s now the Spurs top scoring option?

Fantasy owners make the mistake of overreacting to things all the time, especially things that happen on the biggest stage of them all and in such dramatic fashion. What we’re going to do in this article is take a step back and look at the bigger picture that of Danny Green and try to determine where his fantasy value rests.

Let’s start by looking at his full season stats from last year: Read more

The Year of the Brow: Why I Think Anthony Davis Is Going To Dominate This Season

by Will Overton

It only seems fitting that we launch RotoProfessor’s basketball coverage for the season by talking about one of my favorite players this season, Anthony Davis. I think this is going to be the year of The Brow and I am going to tell you why in this article.

Davis was a very much hyped rookie last season coming into the NBA as the number one pick and was expected to come in and run away with the rookie of the year. Things didn’t go as planned though. Damian Lillard ended up running away with the award and Davis struggled with a couple injuries missing a total of 18 games on the season.

Here are the numbers that Anthony Davis put up over 64 games as a rookie:

28.8 Minutes Per Game
51.6% Field Goal Percentage
75.1% Free Throw Percentage
13.5 Points Per Game
8.2 Rebounds Per Game
1.0 Assists Per Game
1.8 Blocks Per Game Read more

Fantasy Fallout: How Good Can Kyle Lowry Be In Toronto?

At the end of last season the Rockets had a choice to make between Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic. They chose to send Kyle Lowry to Toronto in exchange for draft picks, and in the end they didn’t end up with either point guard. Now Lowry has a fresh start in Toronto where there will be no question who the starting point guard is.

There is some debate as to where Kyle Lowry should be ranked, and it appears many fantasy analysts and players have short term memories. While point guard is a crowded position for sure, Lowry was a surefire top ten  before he got hurt last year and was working his way into the top 25 – 30 area in overall rankings.

Than he got hurt, Goran Dragic went berserk in his place and people kind of forgot about how good Lowry was it seems. Let’s look back at his overall 2011 – 2012 season numbers:

32.6 Minutes Per Game
14.3 Points Per Game
6.6 Assists Per Game
4.6 Rebounds Per Game
1.6 Steals Per Game
1.7 Threes Per Game
41% Field Goal Shooting Read more

Head-To-Head: Who Is Fantasy Basketball’s Top Center?: Dwight Howard vs. Amare Stoudemire

Last year there was absolutely no debate on this one question. Who should be the first center off the board in my fantasy basketball draft? This year, things might be changing thanks to what Amare Stoudemire did in his first season as a New York Knick.

There is no question that Amare Stoudemire has certainly closed the gap between number one and number two in the fantasy basketball center rankings. The question we must ask is; Has Amare surpassed Superman for number one? I am going to break down the two guys, offer my own projections and make my own pick for who is number one.

Keep in mind that I am making these projections based on the way things are right now, and when free agency and trading starts things could look differently.

First of all let’s look at the reigning fantasy basketball big man champion.

The Case for Dwight Howard

We know all about D-12’s free-throw shooting issues and how maddening that can be for a fantasy basketball owner who doesn’t like to see that 1 point in any category for his team. Taking Howard means you than have to be conscious for the rest of the draft to build a team around Howard to overcome for his poor free-throw shooting in order to salvage a couple of points at least. Read more

J.J. Hickson Set To Start: The Fantasy Impact Of This Move

It looks as if it might be official that J.J. Hickson is going to be the starting power forward in Cleveland this year and Antwan Jamison will be the sixth man coming off the bench. Once Lebron left Antwan Jamison was supposed to be the guy to pick up the scoring slack and lead this team in points. Is that something he can still do coming off the bench? How much of a boost in fantasy value does Hickson get from being the starting power forward and what can we expect from him in the role? These are the main questions I am going to try an answer as I break down this move from a fantasy perspective, by looking at both men’s fantasy value in lieu of this decision.

Antwan Jamison
Only once in his career has Antwan Jamison had a bench role and that was in the 2003-2004 season when he was playing for the Dallas Mavericks. That was the only season of Jamison’s career, since his rookie season, in which he averaged less than 18 points and less than 15 shots taken per game. The question is can he put up those numbers coming off the bench of a team that lacks a true number one scoring option?

This is neither here nor there as far as Jamison goes, but I think the Cavs may have been better off moving Mo Williams to the 2 guard spot with Jamison going to the bench in order to have a number one scoring option who wasn’t running the point guard position. But because the starting lineup now lacks offensive firepower, outside of Williams and hopefully Hickson, I still expect Jamison to log minutes early and often this year. Read more

Deja Vu (For Now, At Least): Comparing Demarcus Cousins and Al Horford

by Daniel Shirley

There’s little doubt that Demcarus Cousins will have success in the NBA. His size and talent level make that obvious. The question is: What will his fantasy impact be this year as a rookie?

To answer this question, I think we can look to the rookie season of a player he reminds me of coming into the league: Al Horford. Of course, they aren’t the same exact kind of player, but I think their overall styles of play coming out of college match up fairly well. Cousins probably has the offensive edge, but Horford probably began his pro career as a better defender and rebounder than Cousins will. Both players played on very successful teams with very good players around them. Physically, they match up pretty well. Cousins will be coming in to a situation in Sacramento much like the one Horford came debuted in Atlanta with. The specific make ups of the teams are not completely alike, but the Kings have some young, promising players much like the Hawks had when they drafted Horford.

Let’s look at Horford’s rookie numbers. 

31.4 Mins/Game
.499 FG%
.731 FT%
.70 Steals/Game
.90 Blocks/Game
9.7 Rebs/Game
1.5 Ast/Game
10.1 Pts/Game Read more

Projecting Tyreke Evans Season: How Good Can He Be In Year Two?

Tyreke Evans put together a very impressive rookie season on his way to winning the rookie of the year award and making fantasy basketball players around the world wonder just how high this kid’s ceiling could be. Now it’s time for an encore and the question is; Will Evans hit a sophomore slump or can he continue to get better and improve on last year’s numbers? Before we address year two, let’s look back at his stats from his rookie campaign:

20.1 points per game
5.3 rebounds per game
5.8 assists per game
1.5 steals per game
47.5% FG percentage
74.8% FT percentage
0.5 3-Pointers made per game

Evans was a true across the board contributor last year, as only Evans, Kobe Bryant and Lebron James went 20-5-5 last season. Though if you look the holes in his game are still noticeable. He will certainly benefit from a little bit more range, and hopefully that’s something he has been working on this summer. The other thing he needs to shore up is his free throw shooting. It wasn’t that bad, but he is getting to the line over six times per game, so if he can bring that percentage up over 80 he can give you a boost in yet another category. Read more

The Other Brother: Is Robin Lopez a 2011 Sleeper?

Everyone knew about the Lopez brothers as a pair when they played together at Stanford, you thought of the two as a pair and never individually. But ever since they got to the NBA Brook has taken off and Robin has become the forgotten brother. Brook was always considered the one with more potential to succeed, but he also has been the brother playing on a bad team and in turn getting opportunity while Robin has been relegated to a backup role on a very good team. That is until now.

With Amare Stoudemire bolting for the Big Apple, Robin Lopez looks to be locked in as the new man in the middle in Phoenix, and he doesn’t have a lot of competition. So what can he make of this new opportunity? Before we even start let’s just get any ideas of grandeur out of the way, Brook is the better Lopez brother, and even with starter’s minutes Robin won’t put up the same numbers as his brother. But what exactly should we expect from the other Lopez brother in his new role? Read more