Archive for Sleepers

Deep Sleeper Roundup: Old Faces in New Places

by Ray Lin

This past offseason was dominated by big-name free agency thanks to the likes of Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Andre Drummond, Al Horford and Mike Conley just to name a few. These guys obviously impact only the early rounds of fantasy drafts.

For those of us who play in deeper leagues, though, it’s some of the lesser-owned free agents who have our attention. These are players who are end-game options in drafts or even waiver-wire watch list material (depending on the size of the league). Below, I look at interesting sleepers who switched teams over the offseason and are owned in 15% of Yahoo leagues or less.

Matthew Dellavedova, PG/SG – Milwaukee (14% owned)
Last season as a starter (with CLE): 14 games, 29 mpg, 45.2 FG%, 92.9 FT%
9.4 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 spg, 1.7 3PM Read more

Identifying Five Draft Values By Looking At True Shooting Percentage Numbers

by Ray Lin

One of the most underrated harbingers of success in fantasy is volume, and in fantasy hoops that means minutes played. We don’t trust that coaches will always be able to identify their most efficient and productive players and give them the most playing time. However, we can to a certain extent project whose underlying numbers show they make the most of their playing time and could take a leap in overall fantasy projection the next year.

The stat I want to zero in on today is True Shooting Percentage. The stat (aka TS%) is an APBRmetrics (Association for Professional Basketball Research Metrics) number that measures a player’s efficiency at shooting the ball. The goal is really to have a shooting percentage that takes into account all the different types of shots a player can take and make — 2-pt field goals, free throws and 3-pointers. Here’s how it is calculated:

TS%: Total Points / (2 x (Field Goal Attempts + 0.44 * Free Throw Attempts) Read more

Fantasy Fallout: How Jeremy Lin Signing With Brooklyn Has Significant Fantasy Impact

by Will Overton

This offseason was loaded with drama with free agency frenzy at a pitch I have never seen before and trades flying in here and there. This offseason featured a ton of player movement and significant player movement that is going to impact fantasy basketball in a really big way.

As we dive into our preseason basketball coverage we will discuss a lot of this movement and the impact it’s going to have on the fantasy world. We’re going to start today though by looking at one of the more under the radar signing of the offseason that might have one of the biggest fantasy impacts of all. We are going to breakdown Jeremy Lin signing with the Brooklyn Nets and why I think this has such a large impact on the fantasy basketball world.

The Brooklyn Nets made several valiant efforts to add players, but seemed to be foiled at every turn by teams matching their offers or players electing to go elsewhere. One move they did manage to pull off was signing Jeremy Lin to come and be their starting point guard. A move that has the potential upside to create a new top 15 point guard. Read more

ADP Report: Using ADP To Identify Sleepers And Busts Among Big Men

by Will Overton

We have been breaking down our sleepers and busts using average draft position the last couple of weeks. Last week we hit on the point guards and earlier this week it was the swingmen that we touched on. Today we are going to wrap up the series by touching on the big men who are being under or over drafted.

There are going to be a ton of fantasy basketball drafts around the world going on this weekend and you need to be prepared going in. Finding sleepers and avoiding busts in your draft room is all about recognizing where a guys value is and taking advantage of the current trends by not reaching beyond a guys value and also waiting if you can for the guy you really want. Read more

Instant Impact: Julius Randle is Ready To Start His NBA Career

by Ray Kuhn

Fourteen minutes. That is all Julius Randle has to show for his rookie season. Well at least his first rookie season.

While fantasy owners go off chasing this season’s shiny new rookies, I rather focus my attention on Randle. After breaking his leg 14 minutes into his debut season, Randle had what essentially amounted to a red-shirt season. After having limits imposed on him during Summer League play, Randle entered the pre-season without any restrictions.

Read more

Under The Radar Rookies: Five Rookies To Take A Flier On Late

by Will Overton

We all know who the major rookies are for fantasy this season and it could be a very good year for the rookie class in fantasy with a handful of guys expected to step right in and start and play at a high level. But you don’t need me to tell you that guys like Karl-Anthony Towns are worth a draft pick, that’s a no-brainer.

What I am going to be focusing on in this article is a handful of rookies who aren’t getting the buzz that Towns or Jahlil Okafor are getting. There are always rookies who fly under the radar, but end up making an impact. Last year it was Jordan Clarkson and Jusuf Nurkic who top this list, but there was also the likes of Jerami Grant and Rodney Hood who weren’t great, but had their moments of fantasy success.

The 2015 draft class was heralded for its potential star power at the top, but it’s also a deep class with some potential fantasy contributing role players and even future stars in the middle and end of the first round and throughout the second. Read more

ADP Report: Using ADP To Identify Sleepers And Busts At Point Guard

by Will Overton

The truest definition of a sleeper in fantasy leagues is a player who performs better than the position in which he was drafted. So when we’re talking about sleepers that doesn’t necessarily mean breakout players. If everyone is predicting a breakout and drafting him accordingly, they’re not a sleeper.

Conversely a bust is someone who performs worse than the position in which they were drafted and if a guy who is predicted to fall off, does in fact not reach the stats he usually posts, it’s not a bust because people saw it coming.

With this in mind the best way to identify sleepers and busts in my opinion is by looking at and analyzing ADP reports. This is what we are going to do, dissect the ADP reports on Yahoo and ESPN for the point guard position to help identify players I feel are sleepers and busts. Read more

Looking Past Bradley Beal Would Be A Big Mistake

by Will Overton

Today is just October the 2nd and so it’s clearly early on in the fantasy draft season. Therefore ADP’s only mean so much at this point, but we can still get some early reads on where players are being valued. A lot of ADP’s draw from the rankings of the sites that run drafts, especially early on when people haven’t done much homework and really are relying on what these sites are telling them.

One site that has some data starting to populate as far as ADP’s is Yahoo! and while I was scanning their draft results the other day one name really jumped off the page at me. That was the name of Bradley Beal who currently is sitting at an ADP of 92.4 on Yahoo! which puts him just behind Kevin Martin and Ersan Ilyasova and just ahead of Robert Covington and David Lee. Read more

The Coming Out Party: K.J. McDaniels Emerges As A Must Own Player

by Will Overton

I talked in the offseason about how K.J. McDaniels was one of the drafts steals and as he took on a bigger role in the preseason he became a popular late round pick. Early on McDaniels was a little inconsistent, but over the last couple weeks he has made the fantasy basketball world take notice.

Look at what McDaniels has done in his last four games which have really been his coming out party. McDaniels has averaged 15.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 2.3 BPG and 1.8 3PG. Yeah it’s only four games, but it really highlights the upside of McDaniels as a do it all type of player in the mold of someone like Nicolas Batum.

There is some legitimate reason for pause for fantasy owners, I do get that. Before these last four games McDaniels hadn’t pulled down more than five rebounds in any one game. He only had more than one steal in a game twice and more than one block in a game three times. McDaniels failed to reach double digits six of his last seven games before this four game run. The start of the season was clearly a little inconsistent at best. Read more

Stat Stuffers: Mid And Late Round Guys To Draft For Blocks And Steals

by Will Overton

There are certain categories that can at times get overlooked, especially late in drafts. Two of the most overlooked stats are blocks and steals. I think at times there is a general assumption that all big men block shots and all guards and wingmen get steals. This is an assumption that’ll get you in trouble.

All categories in rotisserie and head to head are equal in the way they count in the standings. So overlooking a guy who can block shots or get steals in the middle rounds for someone flashier or more name recognizable because they score points is a mistake fantasy owners too often make.

The other mistake is too assume you need to reach for someone like Serge Ibaka and then not worry about shot blocking anymore. If you do grab Ibaka your off to a great start, but you still can’t ignore the category. You also don’t need to feel pressured to reach for him because there are shot blockers in the mid and late rounds who can anchor your team.

I have highlighted a few shot blockers, a few steals guys and a few guys who do a little of both that you can get in the middle or late rounds of your drafts this weekend: Read more