Fantasy Basketball Roundtable: How High Should You Draft Stephen Curry

Rotoprofessor participated once again in the weekly fantasy roundtable and the topic of discussion this week was Stephen Curry. To see the full list of responses from some of the very best fantasy basketball blogs on the internet head on over to this week’s host site Give Me The Rock and check out the full article.

Here was this week’s question and both myself and Daniel’s responses.

What do you think of Stephen Curry going at an average of 7.9 in Yahoo drafts? That’s above Danny Granger, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Amar’e Stoudemire, and David Lee… What do you think of Curry’s prospects compared to those other potential first round picks?

Will Overton’s Response

I can absolutely see why Curry is being taken at this point in the draft, the potential is absolutely through the roof and it’s exciting to think about just what Curry could do.  I’m getting sucked into the mania like everyone else, I have him ranked number 9 in my recent Top 200. That puts him in the first round for me and it puts him above all the big men mentioned above. The reason for this is that in my opinion all those big men are real close together and you should be able to land one of them on the turn, whereas if you miss out on Curry I think there is a bit more of a drop off to the next point guard.  

That said, I do think there is a risk involved in drafting Curry, especially as your first pick. While he looked awfully good last year in his time as a starter, there are still question marks. He’s still relatively unproven, and he’s being asked to change his game somewhat dramatically this year. He’s no longer in a free to run offense like he was with Don Nelson. This year he’s going to be in a more halfcourt offense under Keith Smart and we are already seeing signs of an adjustment problem. So far this preseason he has 28 assists, and 28 turnovers. That’s not the kind of Assist to Turnover rate you want from your first round point guard. I think it’s only a matter of time before he corrects these mistakes and turns the corner, but it’s still a red flag.

He is also playing with nearly a whole new team, including David Lee and a healthy Andris Biedrins. The presence of those two should dramatically reduce the number of rebounds Curry gets from the 4.5 he averaged as a rookie. And while he should up the number of assists from last season’s 5.9 per game, don’t expect it to be a huge jump because Monta Ellis is still in town and he’s really like a second point guard on the court and he’ll spend plenty of time with the ball in his hands.

Those are a few question marks to go with Curry’s inexperience, and while I think the potential reward outweighs the risk as far as drafting Curry in the first round, I still wouldn’t take him above a sure thing like Deron Williams. He’s almost the safest guy in the first round because you know what you’re going to get and he hasn’t really had many issues with durability either.  I also rank Granger higher, but if you want a point guard I can see taking Curry over him, especially considering the risks he presents as well concerning his health. But I just can’t pull the trigger on Steph over Curry for the number two point guard, at least not this year. 

Daniel Shirley’s Response

Stephen Curry is undoubtedly the biggest up-and-comer in the NBA when it comes to fantasy production. His numbers as a rookie were good for any point guard; they were great for a rookie. That said, let’s not go overboard on the guy. You don’t get extra points for drafting the hot up-and-comer. Fantasy basketball remains a science based on numbers. With the numbers in mind, owners should only be focused on how a player can help them for the coming season. That’s it. It doesn’t matter what team your players play on, how many games they win, or how old they are. Things change slightly if you’re in a keeper league, but not enough to adopt an entirely new draft strategy. Obviously, I don’t agree with the high average draft position Curry has seen thus far. Especially when you look at some of the guys who are being taken after him.

Deron Williams
No one can convince me that Stephen Curry should be averaging a higher draft position than Deron Williams. Curry will easily win the 3-pointers made category, but I think that’s the only place you see a clear advantage for him. Williams will have significantly more assists/game than Curry. The departure of Carlos Boozer will put pressure on Williams to score more points, which he is certainly capable of doing. 

Danny Granger
Another unexplainable pick here. Curry has the advantage as far as assists go, but that’s about the only place I see him clearly winning out. Granger is the only top 10 player that could have more success in 3-pointers made than Curry. I’d be my house that Granger scores significantly more points, and he’s better physically equipped to help out on the boards than Curry. 

Dwight Howard
Of those being passed up for Curry, Dwight Howard might be the hardest to compare to the Golden State guard. The differences in statistics are obvious due to their positions and styles of play. The issue here is quality at position. There are a number of guards on the rise in the NBA right now. Sure, Curry is among the cream of the crop, but he is not in the very top echelon for his position. It’s a completely different story for Howard. The lack of dominant centers has been covered ad nauseum. On top of that, Howard is easily the most valuable fantasy option at his position. Positional scarcity shouldn’t always be used to compare different players, but I think a first round pick should give you a clear advantage at a specific position. 

Pau Gasol/Amar’e Stoudemire/David Lee
This is where things start to get a little muddled. One owner might apply the same logic as was just discussed in relation to Dwight Howard. The only difference is that none of these guys will put up quite as gaudy numbers as Howard. This would be where one would have to look at what kind of team you are trying to build. If you’re looking to be competitive in all categories Curry is the answer. On the other hand, if you want a dominant center you may not get the chance again.

Now you have seen what we think and you have the link to a lot of other great opinions. But what do you think of Stephen Curry? Where are you drafting him in your leagues and how does he compare with some of these other first round possibilities?

To check out last week’s fantasy roundtable follow this link:

And to see more player analysis check out our take on the following guys:

 

Posted on by Will Overton. This entry was posted in Fantasy Roundtable, Player Analysis. Bookmark the permalink.

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3 Responses to Fantasy Basketball Roundtable: How High Should You Draft Stephen Curry

  1. Tim Downs says:

    Hey Will,
    Here’s one voice hoping that Mr. Curry has no doubters once this year is over. Itook him in the first rd. of my draft and I would like the chance to do that yearly!

  2. Will Overton says:

    I don’t think you’ll be disappointed.

  3. Pingback: The Great Debate: The Fantasy Value of Derrick Rose

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