Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Has Alex Verdugo Begun To Emerge Or Should We Sell High?


Alex Verdugo has generally been viewed as a highly hyped prospect, though the results haven’t always been there. That changed in the sprint known as the 2020 season, as he produced strong numbers:

201 At Bats
.308 Batting Average (62 Hits)
6 Home Runs
15 RBI
36 Runs
4 Stolen Bases
.367 On Base Percentage
.478 Slugging Percentage
.371 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Verdugo didn’t show excessive power or speed, and he also benefited from luck in his BABIP. Just adding to the concern is his 32.5% Hard%, which points towards a regression. While he did show a strong approach (7.0% SwStr%, 29.0% O-Swing%), that’s hardly enough when the other “skills” aren’t there.

We have to question whether or not his power will ever develop. Just look at some of the underlying metrics:

  • Exit Velocity – 87.0 mph
  • Launch Angle – 5.9 degrees

Having added 10 doubles and with his Hard%, it doesn’t lead you to believe that a sudden surge is coming. With a career high of 14 stolen bases back in 2015, it looks like we are talking about a 10/10 type player. Maybe if he was going to hit .300 we’d get cautiously excited, but for someone who could hit .260ish the value simply isn’t there.

Maybe someone in your league still believes, and that creates the perfect sell high candidate.

Sources – Fangraphs, Baseball Savant



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