Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Out Of Baltimore, Can Dylan Bundy Finally Live Up To The Hype?

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There was a time when Dylan Bundy was considered among the elite pitching prospects in the game, and while injuries helped to derail him early it’s been poor performances that have plagued him of late.  The question fantasy owners now have to ask is whether or not getting out of Baltimore will lead to an improvement, after he was traded to the Angels in exchange for four prospects.   First, let’s take a look at the performance from ’19:

161.2 IP
7 Wins
4.79 ERA
1.35 WHIP
162 Strikeouts (9.02 K/9)
58 Walks (3.23 BB/9)
41.5% Groundball Rate
.297 BABIP

Both his strikeout and walk rates were solid, and it’s interesting that his groundball rate was actually an improvement (36.0% for his career).  However home runs continued to plague him, as he posted a 1.61 HR/9 (career mark of 1.67).  It wasn’t just in Baltimore that the problem was there:

  • Home – 1.61
  • Road – 1.63

He showed an improvement in the second half (1.15 HR/9), though is that really enough to hang our hats on?  Maybe not on the surface, but it coincided with a significant improvement in his groundball rate as well (47.4%).  It’s interesting that there was such a dramatic change, because it wasn’t due to an alteration in his pitch usage (first half // second half):

  • Fastball – 49.6% // 50.6%
  • Slider – 21.8% // 24.0%
  • Curveball – 9.6% // 10.4%
  • Changeup – 19.1% // 15.0%

Considering his career track record and the struggles he’s had both at home and on the road, it’s impossible to think that he’ll suddenly start keeping the ball in the ballpark.  Sure the strikeouts and control are nice, though not elite, and maybe he improves upon his 70.5% strand rate.  Nothing in that statement makes you think that he’s suddenly going to become a must use fantasy option, however.

Could Bundy be a solid option?  Could a change of scenery and a new voice in his ear finally get him to figure things out?  Perhaps, but it’s not a given and there are likely better gambles to take.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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