Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Will Corey Dickerson Thrive In Miami? Don’t Bank On It…

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The Marlins had been tied to numerous big name outfield acquisitions, but they ultimately settled on signing Corey Dickerson to a two-year deal. While on the surface it appears to be a solid signing, potentially bringing more offensive upside then the alternatives, it’s also easy to argue that it will ultimately prove disappointing.

While Dickerson did produce solid numbers when on the field last season (.304 with 12 HR over 260 AB), he also continued to show an abysmal approach at the plate:

  • SwStr% – 14.1%
  • O-Swing% – 46.2%

Already a player who rarely draws a walk (5.8% career walk rate), it’s easy to envision both the strikeout rate rising (20.1% in ’19) and luck regressing (.344 BABIP). When you chase outside the strike zone as often as he does it’s hard to envision his Hard% remaining elevated (39.1% in ’19, 34.6% for his career), leading to the drop in BABIP.

Then you have questions about his power, considering the home ballpark that he’s moving into. Only once has Dickerson hit more than 24 HR in a season (27 HR is his career high) and playing half his games in Miami, would fewer than 20 HR really be a stretch?

Then you have the risk of a platoon, though it’s not a given, considering this career slash:

  • vs. RHP – .290/.333/.533
  • vs. LHP – .272/.310/.409

While it’s not a particularly murky picture, it’s also not a glowing one. Maybe he does outproduce Nick Castellanos or Yasiel Puig, but he also could struggle to produce with half his games coming in a pitcher friendly ballpark. While he may get pushed up the rankings given a little bit of hype, don’t make that mistake.

Source – Fangraphs

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