Buy Low Candidates: Will June Swoons Lead To Big Second Half Performances For These Hitters? (Meadows & More)

8
3786

Fantasy owners are always looking to find breakout players, whether it’s those who haven’t emerged as of yet or those who are currently struggling. Obviously when you are looking to acquire someone who is under-performing the price tag is going to be the key. Who are worth targeting, assuming the price has dropped significantly? Here are three names to explore:

Paul Goldschmidt – St. Louis Cardinals
June Statistics – .181, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 10 R, 0 SB in 106 PA

It’s been a disappointing season for Goldschmidt overall (.246 with 14 HR), but things have gotten even worse in June.  When you start to look at some of the metrics, however, it doesn’t really make sense:

  • Hard% – 45.7%
  • Oppo% – 27.1%
  • Fly Ball Rate – 38.6%
  • SwStr% – 10.7%

So he’s hitting the ball hard and he’s not swinging for the fences or taking a pull heavy approach, yet he carried a .209 BABIP for the month?  Everything about that screams of a rebound, especially given his solid approach overall.  Things will get better, as he settles into St. Louis, and a big second half could be in his future. 

Verdict – Buy ‘Em

Wil Myers – San Diego Padres
June Statistics – .188, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 13 R, 3 SB in 82 PA

Myers is in a little bit of a tricky situation, since the Padres have multiple options and he could easily continue to lose playing time.  That puts a little extra pressure on Myers to produce, and as the struggles build (overall he has a 35.7% strikeout rate, .401 SLG) that becomes harder and harder to guarantee.

The biggest red flag is the swing and miss, as he’s struggled to make contact against all types of pitches (Whiff%):

  • Hard – 12.46%
  • Breaking – 17.47%
  • Offspeed – 17.12%

It’s not that he’s chasing outside the strike zone (27.7% O-Swing%), so maybe there’s a little bit of hope?  He actually has improved his approach in June (12.2% SwStr%, 24.4% O-Swing%) and he continues to hit the ball hard (41.9% Hard%).  Throw in some speed and you would think a hot streak is coming.  Maybe we wouldn’t go out of our way to acquire him, but if you own him stay the course.

Verdict – Buy ‘Em (but don’t go to extremes)

Austin Meadows – Tampa Bay Rays
June Statistics – .206, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 8 R, 1 SB in 117 PA

Meadows looked like a breakout candidate early in the year, but things have completely fallen off a cliff since.  You have to wonder if he’s started swinging for the fences, something that’s cost him across the board.  Just look at some of the metrics, comparing his overall mark compared to in June alone:

  • Fly Ball Rate – 41.7% vs. 44.6%
  • SwStr% – 9.8% vs. 11.7%
  • O-Swing% – 27.6% vs. 31.0%

So he’s putting the ball in the air more and his approach has deteriorated.  It’s interesting, because it’s not that opposing pitchers have flipped the script on him.  Instead it appears to be an approach driven slump, and one that is not guaranteed to change. Meadows is better than this, but he’s also not a guarantee.  Keep that in mind.

Verdict – Don’t Buy ‘Em

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

8 COMMENTS

  1. Hey Prof,

    I just picked up Skaggs the other day. With Dylan Cease being called up, would you drop Skaggs and pick up Cease? This is a roto keeper league. Thanks in advance.

    • Yep, Cease definitely has the higher upside and while there’s risk, there’s too much reward to ignore

    • It’s interesting, but I’d probably stick with what you have (though, admittedly I’m not the biggest Devers supporter)

  2. I’ve been thinking about this article and the analysis, which is quite good.

    But here’s my counter point on Meadows – don’t you think the Rays understand what Meadows has been doing and how he has gotten off his normal game? Remember – Meadows showed a very sound approach last year, and that must be a reason the Rays targeted him as part of the Archer trade. And wouldn’t we think the Rays are one of the few organizations that might be able to correct what Meadows has been doing? It just seems like the one organization we wouldn’t want to sell short so quickly is the Rays. I’ve been trying to figure out what to do with Meadows, and I just can’t pull the trigger on trading him for this reason.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here