Draft Day Decision: Is Jose Peraza A “Value” Selection?

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Currently (at least when I wrote this towards the end of January) I would venture to say that Jose Peraza is a nice “value” selection. Now the term “value” can mean different things at different times in the draft, and context is very important, but Peraza is worth more than a passing glance. No one is calling him a sleeper, and his ADP of 98 doesn’t suggest that, but this is where we get into context.

Entering 2019 shortstop is deep and filled with its share of youth, talent, production, tools and upside. Depending on how you build your team it’s hard to go wrong with any of the consensus Top 11 options at the position.

Based on current NFBC ADP Jean Segura is coming off the board as the 11th shortstop. The new Phillies’ addition is followed by Corey Seager, who has more upside and power but is lacking when it comes to stolen bases, and then Peraza.

Between the two, all things, considered I much rather prefer the 25-year old Peraza with pick 98 as opposed to Segura with his ADP of 71. In fact, before we take a closer look at Peraza let’s take a look at Steamer’s projections for the two:

  • Peraza: .281, 11 HR, 69 Runs, 61 RBI, 21 SB
  • Segura: .284, 13 HR, 74 Runs, 60 RBI, 20 SB

As someone who prefers Peraza I might be biased, but there really is no compelling reason not to wait two rounds. Solidifying that is the fact that Peraza possesses the upside.

Peraza and his 88% contact rate from last season is slated to bat atop the Reds’ batting order as he comes off a successful 2018 (he hit .288 with 14 home runs, 85 runs scored, 58 RBI and 23 stolen bases). Based on that I’d venture to opine that the Steamer projections are a little conservative.

Last season, after boosting his contact rate from 86% the year prior, Peraza also improved his line drive rate (22% to 26%) and fly ball rate (31% to 38%) while making hard contact at an increased level. Even the worst case scenario, the Steamer projection, is still solid and useful. Should you decide to take a different direction in the early rounds Peraza is more than a worthy fallback option.

2 COMMENTS

  1. Agreed, most likely will hit 8/9 with OBP machine Winker healthy at top of the lineup.

    Also should note that April and May were not kind to Peraza. He bounced back with .465 SLG percentage over the last 4 months – not bad for a light hitting SS at the bottom of the lineup.

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