Dynasty Starting Pitcher Rankings Part 3: February 2019

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Welcome to Part 3 (the final installment) of my dynasty starting pitcher rankings. As with the first 72 names there’s been continuous rearranging and shifting of the rankings and tiers, but I’ve finally found an order (I think) I’m happy with. The last three tiers contain 104 starting pitchers ranked for dynasty league purposes. The rankings represent relative value in a dynasty league by taking into consideration immediate value vs. years of possible relevance left. As always these rankings should be manipulated to match the league type you play, so take them with a small grain of salt. Below the rankings are some thoughts as to how the rankings were created.

Tier 8:
73. Marco Gonzales – 27       
74. Kyle Freeland – 25
75. Kenta Maeda – 30            
76. Dylan Cease – 23             
77. Matt Manning – 21           
78. Ian Anderson – 20            
79. Hunter Greene – 19          
80. Triston McKenzie – 21    
81. Mitch Keller – 22             
82. Luiz Gohara – 22              
83. Kyle Wright – 23              
84. Hyun-Jin Ryu – 31           
85. JA Happ – 36                    
86. Sonny Gray – 29              
87. Jake Junis – 26                 
88. Ross Stripling – 29           
89. Dinelson Lamet – 26        
90. Dylan Bundy – 26            
91. Luke Weaver – 25            
92. Marcus Stroman – 27       
93. Michael Fulmer – 25        
94. Cole Hamels – 35             
95. Rich Hill – 38                   

Tier 9:
96. Trevor Richards – 25        
97. Freddy Peralta – 22          
98. Vince Velazquez – 26      
99. Caleb Smith – 27              
100. Justus Sheffield – 22      
101. Jake Arrieta – 32            
102. Jon Lester – 35               
103. Michael Wacha – 27      
104. Merrill Kelly – 30          
105. Collin McHugh – 31      
106. Steven Matz – 27            
107. Taijuan Walker – 26       
108. Drew Smyly – 29           
109. Pablo Lopez – 22            
110. Sean Reid-Foley – 23     
111. Griffin Canning – 22      
112. Adonis Medina – 22       
113. Jonathan Loasigia – 24   
114. Brendan McKay – 22     
115. Luis Patino – 19             
116. Brusdar Graterol – 20     
117. Jon Duplantier – 24        
118. Nate Pearson – 22          
119. Garrett Richards – 30     
120. Michael Pineda – 30       
121. Jeff Samardzija – 34       
122. Dereck Rodriguez – 26  
123. Tyler Anderson – 29      
124. Reynaldo Lopez – 25     
125. Trevor Williams – 26     
126. Jaime Barria – 22           
127. Carlos Rodon – 26          
128. Zach Eflin – 24               
129. Sandy Alcantara – 23     

Tier 10:
130. Brady Singer – 22          
131. Eric Pardinho – 18          
132. Bryse Wilson – 21          
133. Dustin May – 21             
134. Mike Minor – 31            
135. Jake Odorizzi – 28          
136. Jose Urena – 27              
137. Aaron Sanchez – 26       
138. Matt Harvey – 29           
139. Jhoulys Chacin – 31       
140. Domingo German – 26   
141. Gio Gonzalez – 33          
142. Danny Salazar – 29        
143. Sean Manaea – 27          
144. Julio Teheran – 28          
145. Trevor Cahill – 30          
146. Max Fried – 25               
147. Fernando Romero – 24   
148. Joe Ross – 25                  
149. Logan Allen – 21            
150. Jake Faria – 25               
151. Corbin Martin – 23         
152. Justin Dunn – 23            
153. Adrian Morejon – 19      
154. Michel Baez – 22           
155. Taylor Widener – 24      
156. Spencer Howard – 22     
157. Jay Groome – 20            
158. Matt Liberatore – 19      
159. Cole Winn – 19              
160. Hans Crouse – 20           
161. DL Hall – 20                  
162. Derek Holland – 32        
163. Johnny Cueto – 32          
164. Anthony DeSclafani – 28          
165. Chase Anderson – 31     
166. Lance Lynn – 31            
167. Tanner Roark – 32          
168. Matt Shoemaker – 32     
169. Dan Straily – 30             
170. Framber Valdez – 25      
171. Zach Davies – 26            
172. Chad Kuhl – 26              
173. Drew Pomeranz – 30      
174. Jharel Cotton – 27          
175. Jerad Eickhoff – 28        
176. Lucas Giolito – 24          

Tier 8: At this point in the rankings the tiers become very important and the differences between the top and bottom of a tier become blurred. Tier 8 consists of useful younger arms, productive older arms and a group of interesting prospects. Marco Gonzales, Kyle Freeland, Jake Junis, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling showed impressive all-around skill sets in 2018 and should be solid back-end rotation arms for a few years. Of that group I’m most interested in Maeda due to his elite bat missing ability and impressive command. He may never get the chance to pitch 160+ innings in a season but the innings he’ll give you will contribute greatly to your team.

Other arms such as Sonny Gray, Luke Weaver, Dylan Bundy, Michael Fulmer, Dinelson Lamet and Marcus Stroman are all young enough and talented enough to have bounce back campaigns. While they may never live up to the high expectations they were once given, buying low could be the right move at the moment. Sonny Gray and Luke Weaver may be my favorites from that group because I still believe in the talent they possess but you should be warned to not overspend on arms that put up atrocious 2018 campaigns. Ryu, Hill, Happ and Hamels represent the old productive arms in this tier and all can put up SP #2 numbers in 2019 and maybe even 2020 if you’re lucky. They most likely have more value on your team at this point, compared to trading them for a minimal return.

Of the prospects in this tier Matt Manning may be my favorite due to his immense upside. Keller, Wright and McKenzie all look more like mid-rotation arms whereas Manning has ace upside with further refinement of his command.

Tier 9: Many of the arms in this tier are some of my favorite targets in dynasty formats. For whatever reasons, I’ve found a lot of them are very cheap to acquire and could all be productive assets in the short or long-term. The four Miami hurlers, Alcantara, Smith, Lopez and Richards, all showed impressive skills in 2018. Richards and Smith both missed bats at an above average clip and Lopez and Alcantara flashed groundball producing ability that few others in the system possess. The four might not have huge upside but could anchor the back end of a fantasy rotation for years to come.

Samardzija, Pineda, Walker, Wacha and Smyly should all be back from their respective injuries at some point during the 2019 season and could have solid value. Wacha and Pineda may be the most interesting of the bunch and could return SP3 value (for a minimal price) if all breaks right. If you’re looking for strikeout upside, Freddy Peralta and Vince Velazquez are the two guys in this tier you should be chasing whereas Lester and Arrieta may come in handy if you are looking for solid ratios. Tyler Anderson, Jaime Barria, Collin McHugh and Sean Reid-Foley all hold sneaky upside value for the next few seasons. They each miss bats at an above average clip and with any luck could make a splash in the fantasy scene this year.

If there are some guys in this tier I’m avoiding, it’d be Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez and Dereck Rodriguez. After strong finishes to 2018 combined with flashing the upside they were once pegged to have, the prices on these pitchers seem to have been inflated. These three outperformed their xFIPs by over one run and I’m not betting on that to continue.

Tier 10: The last tier in my 177 SP dynasty rankings features a lot of arms I’m willing to take a chance on. There’s prospects such as Brady Singer and Bryse Wilson who are relatively close to the Majors, as well as teenage arms such as Morejon, Pardinho and Winn who all have significant upside but also well-documented risk. There’s also plenty of low risk, low upside arms such as Urena, Minor, Chacin and Teheran, who seem to have already reached their peak potential but could be solid for the next few seasons.

One of the arms I really like in this tier is Domingo German, who’s shown impressive bat missing ability in his short stints in the Majors. The Yankees certainly have the depth in their starting pitching and bullpen which could limit his opportunities in 2019, but I believe the talent could be there for a breakout at any point. I’m also interested in Jerad Eickhoff and Matt Shoemaker at the bottom of this tier due to their nonexistent price tag. We’ve seen Eickhoff be a productive starting pitcher in the past and in his one appearance last season he was downright dominant. Shoemaker, on the other hand, has a rotation spot locked up in Toronto and has shown impressive skills in his healthy seasons, but we all know the health will forever be a concern for the 32-year-old.

Justin Dunn and Spencer Howard might be my favorite prospects in this tier due to their strikeout upside, but they could be risky options to own in dynasty leagues. Dunn is closer to the Majors and may get a shot this year with the rebuilding Mariners but looks like a SP #3 at his peak. Howard, alternatively, could become a SP #2 for your fantasy team if it all comes together in his development. He has a big fastball and impressive secondaries, but the command needs to be polished a bit.

Please let me know what questions or thoughts you have! I’m glad you’ve come along on the dynasty rankings journey with me and I hope they’ve helped you and will continue to help you in all your dynasty league endeavors.

4 COMMENTS

    • Sorry, should have clarified that. He’s my favorite prospect to own in this tier because I think the upside is higher and he might be cheaper to acquire. Cease is closer to the majors and has more value in most leagues in my opinion at this point.

  1. You have Ryu lumped in as an older guy with Hamels/Hill & Happ but he is listed as at least 4 years younger(Hamels) than them. What may hold back Ryu from having productive SP#2 numbers past 2019 is injury not age. I guess a trade from the Dodgers may hurt his win totals. To me Ryu seems to be the type that is productive up to and maybe past 35

    • Ryu is the odd case out of the Dodgers pitchers because he’ll always be starting but he always gets hurt. I guess the longevity scares me w/ Ryu because of injuries and while he could be similar to Hill and be very productive to a late age, you can’t trust the innings.

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