Archive for Uncategorized

ADP Analysis: Does The Rookie Running Back Class Bring Draft Day Appeal?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know rookies carry a little bit of a risk to them, regardless of the position.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at where the top rookie running backs are currently being drafted (average ADP courtesy of Fantasy Pros) to try and determine if there is value or not:

 

Bishop Sankey – Tennessee Titans
Current ADP – 60.0

It’s no surprise that Sankey is the first rookie running back coming off the board, as he’s the only one who appeared primed to open the season as the starter. That said, he’s been playing second fiddle to Shonn Greene all preseason and has also had issues with ball security. Read more

2014 Projection: Is Eric Decker Now Being Undervalued?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Is it possible that Eric Decker is being undervalued by fantasy owners? We all know that he’s not going to be the player he’s been in Denver the past two seasons with Peyton Manning throwing him the football:

  • 2012 – 85 receptions, 1,064 yards, 13 TD
  • 2013 – 87 receptions, 1,288 yards, 11 TD

Anyone expecting him to come close to those numbers in the Jets’ inept offense would be making a major mistake. That said, his current ADP of 93.6 feels like an over correction to the change in locale. Read more

Draft Day Decision: Why Zac Stacy Is Worth A Second Round Selection

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

While there significantly more hyped rookie running backs heading into 2013, the Rams’ Zac Stacy arguably had the biggest impact. As the Rams looked to fill the shoes vacated by Steven Jackson, Stacy emerged as the go to running back as he rushed for 973 yards and 7 TD in just 14 games.

Those would be solid numbers on their own, but there are two things working in his favor for an even bigger campaign.

1) This Tweet from Jim Thomas (earlier in the offseason), quoting coach Jeff Fischer:

Fisher, on RB Zac Stacy’s evolving role with Rams: “I think over time, he’ll probably be that 70-percent of the carries guy.”

2) Through September he had just 1 carry for 4 yards. Read more

Draft Day Decision: Is Julio Jones Worth A Top 20 Pick?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Fantasy Pros has his average ADP at 18.8, so that’s what Julio Jones is going to cost you. Prior to 2013 this question would’ve been a no brainer, and we likely would’ve been discussing Jones as a potential top 10-15 pick. However, after being limited to just five games a year ago there has to be at least a little bit of doubt.

The Injury
Any foot injury is going to be concerning when it comes to a wide receiver. The fact that this was his second injury to the same foot makes this even more of a red flag. Just to make it worse, it appears this isn’t the first time he’s had the issue with the same exact bone. Here’s a quote from Jones, courtesy of USA Today (click here for the article): Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Why Greg Olsen Is A Tight End To Target

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It is easy to overlook the Panthers’ Greg Olsen among tight ends, but is that really a mistake you want to make? First, just look at the numbers he’s posted over the past two years:

  • 2012 – 69 receptions, 843 yards, 5 TD
  • 2013 – 73 receptions, 816 yards, 6 TD

More importantly, he has been targeted at least 100 times each of the past two seasons. That’s something that isn’t common for tight ends.  In fact, Olsen is one of only four tight ends to have accomplished that (joining Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez).  That alone shows how important of a role he plays on the passing game.

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Draft Day Decision: Who Should You Select Fifth Overall?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It’s easy to assume that Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson are going to go 1-2-3, in some order. Matt Forte makes sense as the fourth pick, although it’s not 100% given that he goes in that spot (though he should). Where it really gets interesting is at #5, where the top players on your draft board will likely be:

  • Eddie Lacy
  • Calvin Johnson
  • Jimmy Graham

I know the idea of selecting Graham in the first round is in vogue this season, and it does make sense. He gives you a significant advantage over your opponents at tight end. Does it make any sense to select him fifth, though? You would be leaving a player who will likely outperform him, and by a fairly wide margin, on the board. It’s a pick I certainly couldn’t get behind.

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2014 Fantasy Football Rankings: Top 40 Wide Receivers: PPR Formats

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We’ve looked at our non-PPR format wide receiver rankings, but what changes when PPR comes into play?  Let’s take a look at how things could stack up:

  1. Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions
  2. Alshon Jeffery – Chicago Bears
  3. Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos
  4. Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons
  5. A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals
  6. Dez Bryant – Dallas Cowboys
  7. Brandon Marshall – Chicago Bears
  8. T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts
  9. Victor Cruz – New York Giants
  10. Antonio Brown – Pittsburgh Steelers
  11. Julian Edelman – New England Patriots
  12. Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers Read more

2014 Projection: Why Le’Veon Bell Could Fall Short Of Some Lofty Expectations

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell coming into the season, currently at #14 in average ADP according to fantasypros.com. It makes sense, as he rushed for 860 yards and 8 TD despite playing in just 13 games.

However, is there actually reason to be concerned? Just look at his yards per carry, by month (ignoring September due to the missed time):

  • October – 3.1
  • November – 3.4
  • December – 3.9

It would appear like he needs significant repetitions to make an impact, but you have to wonder if that will happen again. Remember, last season the Steelers had little behind him on the depth chart (Jonathan Dwyer and Felix Jones, among the mediocre options). This year they added LeGarrette Blount via free agency and Dri Archer in the draft, both of whom should see time.

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2013 Rookie Review: #25: Caleb Sturgis, K, Miami Dolphins

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Who were the best rookies from 2013?  What is their fantasy outlook for 2014?  We are going to be counting down the Top 25 rookies from a year ago to help fantasy owners determine who can be trusted for the coming year and who may need another year or two to grow.

Kicking off the list is a kicker, believe it or not, so let’s take a look at the Dolphins’ Caleb Sturgis:

Drafted:
5th round, 166th overall

2013 Stats:
26-for-34 on field goal attempts

2013 Review:
Sturgis was actually the only rookie to even attempt a field goal last season and he had fairly good results (including hitting 8 of 10 from between 40 and 49 yards). While he struggled from at least 50 yards (he connected on 3 of 7), he tied with sixth others for the most attempts at that distance.

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Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Does The Return Of Rashard Mendenall Drain Andre Ellington’s Potential?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

According to the Cardinals officially website (click here for the article):

Back on the field was running back Rashard Mendenhall, who had been dealing with a bad toe. “Rashard looked very, very good today and it was nice to see him running like that again,” Arians said.

Arizona is coming off their bye week, affording Mendenhall a chance to get healthy. He had missed Week 8, allowing Andre Ellington to play a larger role in the offense as he erupted for 154 yards and 1 TD on 15 carries.

Unfortunately, a healthy Mendenhall will likely help to limit Ellington’s upside. As it is the Cardinals gave Stepfan Taylor 14 carries in Mendenhall’s absence and the Arizona coaching staff has repeatedly said that they want to limit Ellington’s snaps.

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