Archive for Player Analysis

10 Lessons Learned From Week 6: Jerick McKinnon, Adrian Peterson, Alvin Kamara & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It was another crazy day around the NFL, with the biggest news being the injury to Aaron Rodgers (as well as Jameis Winston, though to a far lesser extent).  What are the biggest things that we learned from the action on the field?  Let’s take a look:

 

1) Will we have to downgrade the entire Green Bay offense…
Obviously there is no replacing Aaron Rodgers, who could be lost for the season, but Brett Hundley looked inept when stepping in.  He completed 18 of 33 passes and threw 3 INT, as the offense looked pitiful.  The passing game did little and the running backs had no room to run, with Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery combining for 69 yards on 23 carries. Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Is A New Option Rising From The San Francisco RB “Mess”? (Breida & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

According to Matt Barrows (via Twitter):

Kyle Shanahan says Carlos Hyde is going to be the first running back in games, followed by Matt Breida and the “hot hand” thereafter.

Considering how things played out in Week 5, this news shouldn’t come as a surprise.  All you have to do is look at the numbers and you can tell that’s the approach San Francisco was already taking:

  • Matt Breida – 10 carries for 49 yards, 3 receptions for 22 yards
  • Carlos Hyde – 8 carries for 11 yards, 1 reception for 7 yards

Breida has 19 carries over the past two weeks, though it’s a bit of a surprise that the 49ers have been so willing to replace Hyde.  It’s not like the veteran has been bad in 2017, with 332 yards (4.5 yards per carry) and 2 TD as well as 18 receptions for 95 yards.  It’s also not like he has had ball security issues, fumbling once (Week 4) but it was ultimately recovered by the 49ers. Read more

Fantasy Fallout: How High Does Alvin Kamara’s Value Now Rise?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The knee jerk reaction is going to be to rush to the waiver wire to add Alvin Kamara, as the trade of Adrian Peterson helps to clear the log jam in New Orleans.  Of course it’s not like Peterson was making an extremely big impact, never being given more than 9 carries in a game and averaging 3.0 yards/carry.  Will some of those carries go to Kamara?  It’s possible, but we’re still not talking about a significant role in that aspect of the game.  Look at his rushing performance thus far:

  • Week 1 – 7 carries for 18 yards
  • Week 2 – 1 carry for 3 yards
  • Week 3 – 2 carries for 37 yards and 1 TD
  • Week 4 – 5 carries for 25 yards

So even if he were to absorb the 5-6 carries Peterson was getting, we are probably talking 6-8 carries per week.  That’s not a given, though, as Mark Ingram is going to continue to dominate the early down carries and take on at least some of them. Read more

The Ditch List: Is It To Cut These Three Struggling Running Backs

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Not every cut is created equal, and it’s going to depend on your league size/format in many cases.  That said there have been some obviously disappointing starts to the season and in the right circumstance three weeks is enough information to formulate a decision, cut bait and move on.  Let’s take a look at a few candidates that you should consider dropping:

 

Isaiah Crowell – Cleveland Browns – Running Back
Outright dropping him is going to be a tough sell, but using him is nearly impossible at this point.  A week after the Jets’ were torched by Leonard Fournette for 145 yards and 1 TD, Crowell managed just 67 yards on 18 touches.  Even more concerning is the fact that five games into the season this performance was his best.  The 18 touches were the most he’s had since Week 1 and at this point anticipating something in the 10-14 touch range is realistic. Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Is Now The Time To Move On From Mike Gilislee?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The assumption was that Mike Gillislee would step into the LeGarrette Blount role for the Patriots, meaning an opportunity would be there to be a force on a weekly basis.  Blount thrived in New England last season, racking up 1,161 yards and 18 TD, and after two weeks it looked like Gillislee could put up a similar line:

First Two Games – 33 carries, 114 yards, 4 TD

He’s continued to see carries in the subsequent three games, with 12 carries per contest, but the results have not been impressive:

Next Three Games – 36 carries, 132 yards, 0 TD

The carries have been down, and there could be a variety of reasons (i.e. game flow), but the bigger issue is that the numbers demonstrate how TD dependent he is.  Even over those first two games, when he was averaging a few more carries (16.5 carries per game), without the TD he would’ve been a worthless fantasy play. Read more

Quick Hit: Will Mitch Trubisky Be Worth Owning In 2018?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The fact that the Bears have made a change at quarterback shouldn’t come as a surprise, as Mike Glennon has been a turnover machine over the first four weeks (including 5 INT over the past three games and being charged with 5 fumbles).  It would be easy to get excited in regards to Mitch Trubisky, the highly touted rookie who was drafted second overall.  That said, it’s hard to expect big numbers:

 

The Receiving Corps
If the Bears hadn’t been hit hard by injuries the outlook would be better, but Chicago has been left with one of the worst receiving groups in the league:

  • Kendall Wright – 14 receptions for 154 yards and 1 TD
  • Zach Miller – 13 receptions for 143 yards and 0 TD
  • Deonte Thompson – 11 receptions for 125 yards and 1 TD
  • Josh Bellamy – 10 receptions for 114 yards and 0 TD Read more

The Ditch List: Week 4 Fallout: Breaking Down Four Players It May Be Time To Cut Bait On

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Not every cut is created equal, and it’s going to depend on your league size/format in many cases.  That said there have been some obviously disappointing starts to the season and in the right circumstance three weeks is enough information to formulate a decision, cut bait and move on.  Let’s take a look at a few candidates that you should consider dropping:

 

Amari Cooper – Oakland Raiders – Wide Receiver
Cooper had a difficult matchup against the Broncos, but his 2 reception, 8 yard performance is just the latest in what has been a disappointing season.  Overall he’s turned 23 targets into 10 catches and 101 yards.  Sure he’s scored a TD, but that came in Week 1 and he’s been virtually unusable over the past three weeks:

  • vs. New York Jets – 4 receptions for 33 yards
  • at Washington – 1 reception for 6 yards
  • at Denver – 2 receptions for 9 yards Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Is Chris Johnson A Worthy Fantasy Option?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

According to Darren Urban (via Twitter):

“Arians, on @AZSports, said Chris Johnson will remain the starting”

Of course Johnson disappointed in a starting role on Monday night:

  • Chris Johnson – 13 touches for 21 yards
  • Andre Ellington – 10 touches for 81 yards

The Cardinals were trailing in the fourth quarter, and that may have led to more opportunities for Ellington. You also had Johnson continuing to get up to speed, and another week of practice/action will only help improve his performance. Read more

The Ditch List: Breaking Down Four Players It May Be Time To Cut Bait On

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Not every cut is created equal, and it’s going to depend on your league size/format in many cases.  That said there have been some obviously disappointing starts to the season and in the right circumstance three weeks is enough information to formulate a decision, cut bait and move on.  Let’s take a look at a few candidates that you should consider dropping:

 

Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens – Quarterback
Calling the trip to London a disastrous one would be an understatement, as Flacco was pulled after going 8-18 for 28 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT.  We knew it would be a slow start, after he was nursing injuries throughout the preseason, but he’s now thrown for just 366 yards, 3 TD and 4 INT over the first three weeks of the season.  In fact Baltimore has limited him to under 20 passes in two of the three games (though he would’ve thrown more in Week 3 had he not been removed). Read more

Breaking Down Two Potential Buy Low Candidates (A.J. Green & DeAndre Hopkins)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know who has been a disappointment thus far, but not all disappointments mean that a player is worth trying to buy low on.  Some players are simply destined to fall short of expectations, so let’s take a look at two under-performing wide receivers and try to determine if we should be buying or ignoring:

 

A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals
No one is going to call the start for the Cincinnati Bengals anything but a major disappointment, though in those struggles could come a buying opportunity or two.  For instance an owner frustrated with the timeshare in the backfield may be willing to give up on Joe Mixon, even though the upside remains if you have the patience to stash him on your bench.  While an owner may be a little less likely to sell A.J. Green for pennies on the dollar, it never hurts to ask.

Over the first two weeks of the season Green as 10 catches for 141 yards and 0 TD.  It’s not that he isn’t getting opportunities (18 targets), so a lot of the “issues” are with his quarterbacks inefficiency and the lack of TD.  The latter is actually not a new problem, however: Read more