Archive for Player Analysis

The Drop List: Three Players We Are Ready To Move On From (Randall Cobb & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

In order to be active on the waiver wire you have to be willing to cut bait on someone sitting on your bench.  Sometimes that decision is easy, but that’s not always the case.  Here are three players who had been viewed as potential contributors this season that we’d be willing to move on from at this point.  At the very least, consider them on the verge of being disposable depending on the next game or two:

 

Randall Cobb – Wide Receiver – Green Bay Packers
He’s underwhelmed over the first two weeks of the season, turning 15 targets into 11 catches for 99 yards and 0 TD.  He’s averaging just 9.0 yards per reception, a number that isn’t unreasonable considering his 10.5 mark from a year ago.  As it is he’s only had one season with more than 1,000 yards (1,287 in 2014) or 80 catches (91 receptions in 2014), he’s not a go to option in the red zone and Jordy Nelson is rounding back into form.  Read more

Shaping 2016 PPR Outlooks From Last Year’s Missed Opportunities

by Ray Lin

If a wide receiver fights through a jam, correctly runs a route and/or gets good positioning on jump balls, they’ve more or less done their job on plays they’re targeted on. On the other hand, there are certain things that wide receivers are simply not in control of — over and underthrown balls by their quarterback, defensive deflections, blown blitz coverages, timely safety help and even the out of bounds line. Do you ever think, “What if my fantasy receiver got a mulligan on that target?”

So I’m asking this question: If a player could have another shot at the balls they didn’t catch (for whatever reason), caught them at the same rate as their other 2015 receptions and put up points per reception at the same rate too, how much additional fantasy value would they have generated for owners?

First, I looked at the number of “uncatchable” balls for fantasy receivers. I calculated this as Uncatchables = Targets – Receptions – Drops. These are balls that were neither caught nor dropped on targeted plays, but that a receiver simply didn’t get for any of the aforementioned reasons above. Read more

Quick Hit: Will Jeremy Langford’s Struggles Open The Door For Jordan Howard?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There was a lot expected from the Bears’ Jeremy Langford, after he was handed the lead back role after Matt Forte left in the offseason. However, over the first two games Langford has done everything possible to cede his role:

  • Week 1 – 17 carries for 57 yards and 1 TD
  • Week 2 – 11 carries for 28 yards and 1 TD

Sure he’s shown a nose for the end zone, but he’s averaged a meager 3.0 yards/carry, hasn’t factored into the passing game and lost a fumble in Week 2. Everything appears to be heading in the wrong direction and there is a real possibility that he is moved into a timeshare, at best, and potentially gets shifted to more of a complimentary role.

That would open the door for fifth round selection Jordan Howard. Prior to the draft NFL.com published the following quote from an AFC running back coach:

“He’s the best pure running back in this draft. I’ve coached some good ones and he’s what you look for. His injuries will knock him back a round or so, and he’s not as well-rounded as Ezekiel Elliott is, but I think this kid is the best runner in this year’s draft.” Read more

Week 2 Sleepers (2016): Shane Vereen, Nelson Agholor & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are all always on the lookout for an under-the-radar player who could make an impact on Sunday.  Who are a few players that could be available to you that can be plucked up and plugged into your lineup?  Let’s take a look:

 

Potential PPR “Monster”
Shane Vereen – New York Giants

ESPN – 34.3%

The Giants have numerous offensive weapons and we know that Rashad Jennings is going to dominate the carries.  That said there’s a good chance that the Giants-Saints matchup breaks down into a shootout, and that should play to the skills of Vereen.

Vereen showed something carrying the football in Week 1 (6 carries for 38 yards), and he could easily see his role in the passing game expand as well (3 receptions for 23 yards).  As it is he had 9 touches, and in a high-paced, high scoring game that number could rise into the 11-14 range.  Taking on a Saints defense that was torched by opposing running backs in Week 1, that’s enough to put him on radars.  Just look at what they yielded: Read more

Stock Report: Is Chris Hogan A Must Stash Option?

 

Thoughts:
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Edelman dominated the snaps, turning 7 targets into 7 receptions and 66 yards. The bigger story is Hogan, who was talked up as a potential breakout candidate in the preseason and delivered in Week 1. Of course he was targeted just 4 times and, when healthy, he could be fourth on the progression chart:

  • Julian Edelman
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • James White (7 targets on Sunday as he assumes left behind by Dion Lewis) Read more

Stock Watch: Kelvin Benjamin: Is Now The Time To Sell High?

 

Thoughts:
So much for a snap count for Kelvin Benjamin, huh?  It was fair to be concerned about his potential production in Week 1, though his usage and the team’s willingness to keep him on the field beyond their initial expectations is promising for his overall outlook.

Of course his performance wasn’t without it’s flaws as he turned 12 targets into just 6 receptions (50%).  That actually matches his completion percentage from his rookie season (73 catches on 146 targets), and that’s not necessarily a good thing.  Just compare it to some of the top receivers from a year ago: Read more

Is It Time To Push The Panic Button On Jared Goff?

 


Thoughts:
While everyone initially expected the #1 overall pick to start from Day 1, if you were paying attention this obviously wasn’t a surprise proclamation (and he actually appears primed to be scratched, as per NFL.com). Just look at the numbers:

  • Week 1 – 4-9, 38 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
  • Week 2 – 8-12, 82 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
  • Week 3 – 4-12, 45 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
  • Week 4 – 6-16, 67 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT Read more

With Bruce Ellington Out, Will A Sleeper Emerge In San Francisco?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The 49ers’ Bruce Ellington was a popular sleeper heading into the preseason, with expectations that he’d be working out of the slot (a spot that tends to post big numbers in Chip Kelly’s high-paced offense).  However he’s now been lost for the season, due to a torn hamstring, and a questionable unit just got that much worse.  That’s not to say that there aren’t others who could step up, so let’s take a look at the new potential breakout players in San Francisco:

 

Vance McDonald – Tight End
He was already one of our favorite sleeper tight ends this season (click here for the article), but this news makes him that much more intriguing.  He gave us a glimpse last season (23 receptions, 281 yards, 3 TD over the final eight games), numbers that can easily continue to grow.  Remember, in that article we posted the following report from NFL.com, prior to him being drafted:

“Despite being built like an inline tight end, the majority of McDonald’s experience is in the slot. This certainly helps his comfort blocking on the edge and as a receiver who picks up yards after the catch. In fact, McDonald is still learning how to use his frame effectively. Teams could view the Rice product as an inline prospect or as a Joker mismatch, but either way McDonald should be selected on the second day.” Read more

Waiver Worthy: Is Eli Rogers A Worthy Addition Or A Player To Ignore?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

By year’s end the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is likely going to be dominated by Le’Veon Bell (after he returns from suspension) and Antonio Brown.  That said they need more than that, otherwise opposing defenses will be able to focus on at least trying to limit the damage inflicted by the two superstars.  Who could step up and be a factor?

Undrafted sophomore Eli Rogers, who will open the season as the team’s slot receiver, appears to be a candidate.  He’s not likely going to post gaudy numbers, considering he never posted more than 536 yards in a season at Louisville, isn’t going to be a factor in the red zone (he stands 5’10”) and has averaged just 9.1 yards per reception over the first three preseason games.

That said, his impact could be felt beyond the numbers.  Ben Roethlisberger was recently quoted by Jeremy Fowler of ESPN (click here for the article) as saying:

“The more he can work the middle, the more safeties will have to respect him and stop cheating on AB,” Roethlisberger said. Read more

Week 1 Sleeper: Why The Chiefs’ Spencer Ware Is A Potential Top 15 RB

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

According to Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star (click here for the article):

“Charles has been participating in practice for a few weeks, mainly with the reserves. He has not been hit yet and has just been running through the non-contact portion of practice.

In the meantime, Spencer Ware, who rushed 72 times for 403 yards and six touchdowns last year, appears to be the No. 1 back. He’s consistently earned far more work in that spot than any other back on the roster, including Charcandrick West, and the 5-foot-10, 229-pounder has been good this preseason, rushing 24 times for 85 yards and a team-high three touchdowns.”

Thoughts:
Charles is working his way back from back from a torn ACL and he’s clearly not back to 100% at this point.  Even if he were to play you would think it would be in a limited role early this season, especially given the depth the team has.  That’s going to make him a risky play for the opening week, while Ware is suddenly looking like a potential Top 15 option. Read more