by Ray Kuhn
Fantasy football ultimately is all about the numbers, though the NFL itself is about significantly more than that. That said we have come a long way in the past few years when it comes to equating numbers and statistics to what we see on the field and helping to predict and explain both past and future performance. As we inch closer to the kickoff of another NFL season, we’ll take a trip through the league and look at two statistics for each team and what it means from a fantasy perspective.
Today let’s take a look at the New York Jets:
3,905: Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Passing Yards Last Season
Last season was a career year for Fitzpatrick, who also threw for 31 touchdowns (seven more than his previous career high). While he has been receiving regular playing time since 2008, last season was only the third time he appeared in all 16 games. The expectations are that he will not repeat his 2015 performance, but is a duplication really that difficult?
Fitzpatrick’s return certainly bodes well for the Jets offense. Aside from swapping out Chris Ivory with Matt Forte, the remainder of New York’s skill position players return from last season. That means we don’t need to adjust our expectations for Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, and Fitzpatrick remains a back-end QB2.
He has yet to complete more than 63.1% of his passes (in 2014), and at this point I wouldn’t expect to see him improve there, as last season Fitzpatrick’s completion percentage was just 59.6%. Another cause for concern is his 15 interceptions.
While Fitzpatrick worked wonders for the Jets’ offense and his receivers last season, his value on the field is better than he can bring to a fantasy team.
0: The Number of Catches Jace Amaro Had Last Season
If there was one gaping hole in the Jets’ offense in 2015, it was the tight end position. After catching 38 passes for 345 yards in his rookie season, Amaro missed the entire 2015 season with a shoulder injury.
Kellen Davis is more of a blocking tight end and he had just three catches last season. When the Jets needed some receiving production from the tight end position they looked towards Quincy Enunwa. The big receiver had 22 catches, but it is still not a substitute for a legit tight end.
Amaro’s lack of production thus far in his career means that he is under the radar from a fantasy perspective. In the NFFC, Amaro is currently the 36th tight end being selected with an ADP of 314.2.
We have to start with the disclaimer that it is very early in Training Camp, but so far all indications are that he is shining. The Jets have been making it a point target him, he is coming up with a lot of catches and they are looking for him in the red zone.
In best ball formats Amaro is worth a late round selection as a third tight end, but beyond that he is merely someone to keep on your radar. However, the potential is there.