Draft Day Decision: Why You Shouldn’t Pay The Premium For Doug Baldwin’s 2nd Half Success

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It was a monster second half of the season for the Seahawks’ Doug Baldwin, who was arguably the most productive player over the final eight games. Just look at his numbers:

  • First 8 Games – 31 receptions for 345 yards and 2 TD
  • Final 8 Games – 47 receptions for 724 yards and 12 TD

The touchdowns obviously jump out at you, as he averaged 1.5 per game (and added another in the two playoff games). He and Russell Wilson were clearly clicking on all cylinders, though it was also a perfect storm for him to be the focal point of the offense.

Remember the team lost Jimmy Graham for the season and the rest of the receiving corps (Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett) weren’t going to instill much fear. They were also without Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls missed some time as well. The question is if he’ll even get an opportunity to come reasonably close to those numbers in 2016…

Graham should be healthy…
They have Rawls back and have added depth (drafting both C.J. Prosise and Alex Collins)…

The receiving corps still lacks another true weapon, but there’s a huge discrepancy between his two halves in ’15 as well as compared to his career history. Just look at his previous season highs:

Receptions – 66
Yards – 825
Touchdowns – 5

In fact, if we average the three years in which he played 16 games prior to last season he had averaged roughly 56 catches for 800 yards and 4 TD. Now go back to the numbers he posted over the first eight games of ’15 and realize that the pace was virtually on par with those averages (62 receptions, 690 yards and 4 TD)…

Did something change that dramatically or was it more of an incredibly hot stretch? We’d lean towards the latter, which means paying for an impressive eight game stretch would be a mistake. That’s not to say that he isn’t usable at the right price, but in most cases the risk probably outweighs the likely reward.

Source – ESPN

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